Last week, we explored how the success rate of open-seat primary candidates varied with how their contribution totals ranked among their rival candidates. In general, money has been a pretty good predictor of primary success since at least 2006, the first year of our study frame:
- 77% of candidates who raised the most money either won outright or advanced to a runoff
- 58% of candidates who had the second-highest contribution total won outright or advanced to a runoff
- 25% of candidates who had the third-highest contribution total advanced to a runoff (None won outright.); and
- 9% of candidates ranked fourth or lower advanced to a runoff (None won outright.).
Nearly all of the candidates ranked third and lower who advanced to a runoff emerged from larger pools of candidates. Just one of every 20 candidates who had the lowest contribution total qualified for a runoff, regardless of the number of candidates in the race.
Candidates who raised and spent the most money won 25% of the time, advanced 58% of the time and lost or missed the runoff just 16% of the time. None of the outright winners and just 14% of runoff candidates were outside of the top two in both total contributions and total expenditures. Half of all runoffs involved the two candidates who spent the most money.
Today, we examined two-person primary races for open seats and found that money is an even stronger predictor. The candidate with the greater contribution total won 85% of the time.
Our analysis of primary success rates was based on candidates’ ranks as of their 8-day-out (state) or pre-primary (federal) reports. Those reports have not been filed yet this year. With this in mind, today we look at the total contributions for candidates in open-seat primary races for statewide office and the legislature as of the candidates’ 30-day-out reports. Candidates are ranked in order of their total contributions, which is the sum of all contributions reported in all of their campaign finance reports for this election cycle filed to date. For state candidates, these cover contributions received between January 1, 2017, and January 25, 2018.
Keep in mind that the percentages shown are historical, based on candidates’ contribution ranks. We do not consider them an actual measurement of the likelihood that a particular candidate will win or advance. Instead, looking across all the races, recent history suggests that about three out of every four candidates in the first column can be expected to win or advance, a little more than half of the candidates in the second column can be expected to advance, and so on. Below that, we will look at the two-person races.
%
Ranked FIrst
%
Ranked Second
%
Ranked Third
%
Ranked Fourth or Lower
Open-seat Primaries with Three or More Candidates
Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 8
Elsa Alcala is retiring.
![Dib Waldrip](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/cca8_waldrip.jpg)
Dib
Waldrip
C: $70,085
E: $63,125
COH: $18,718
![Michelle Slaughter](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/cca8_slaughter.jpg)
Michelle
Slaughter
C: $62,125
E: $39,000
COH: $34,545
![Jay Brandon](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/cca8_brandon.jpg)
Jay
Brandon
C: $1,950
E: $4,162
COH: $532
as of 12/31
HD4
Lance Gooden is running for Congress.
![Stuart Spitzer](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/hd4_spitzer.jpg)
Stuart
Spitzer
C: $148,563
E: $86,632
COH: $88,910
![Ashley McKee](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd4_mckee.jpg)
Ashley
McKee
C: $37,043
E: $30,538
COH: $20,586
![Keith Bell](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd4_bell.jpg)
Keith
Bell
C: $30,475
E: $77,588
COH: $133,898
![Earl Brunner](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd4_brunner.jpg)
Earl
Brunner
C: $155
E: $4,029
COH: $0
HD8
Byron Cook is retiring.
![Thomas McNutt](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/hd8_mcnutt.jpg)
Thomas
McNutt
C: $480,792
E: $210,576
COH: $229,235
![Cody Harris](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd8_harris.jpg)
Cody
Harris
C: $149,986
E: $21,001
COH: $79,172
![Linda Timmerman](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd8_timmerman.jpg)
Linda
Timmerman
C: $36,130
E: $12,841
COH: $11,491
HD13
Leighton Schubert resigned.
![Jill Wolfskill](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd13_wolfskill.jpg)
Jill
Wolfskill
C: $103,021
E: $37,546
COH: $70,190
![Ben Leman](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd13_leman.jpg)
Ben
Leman
C: $22,825
E: $30,174
COH: $93,659
![David Stall](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd13_stall.jpg)
David
Stall
C: $8,235
E: $7,612
COH: $1,781
![Marc Young](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd13_young.jpg)
Marc
Young
C: $2,086
E: $4,029
COH: $3,122
5th: Daniel McCarthy (C: $300, E: $1,075, COH: $0)
HD45
Jason Isaac is running for Congress.
![Amber Pearce](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd45_pearce.jpg)
Amber
Pearce
C: $126,605
E: $43,722
COH: $93,483
![Ken Strange](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd45_strange.jpg)
Ken
Strange
C: $28,385
E: $7,997
COH: $29,000
![Naomi Narvaiz](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd45_narvaiz.jpg)
Naomi
Narvaiz
C: $8,960
E: $7,508
COH: $1,100
![Austin Talley](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd45_talley.jpg)
Austin
Talley
C: $2,625
E: $3,984
COH: $291
5th: Amy Akers (C: $0, E: $0, COH: $0)
HD52
Larry Gonzales is retiring.
![Cynthia Flores](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd52_flores.jpg)
Cynthia
Flores
C: $91,978
E: $31,948
COH: $16,512
![Christopher Ward](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd52_ward.jpg)
Christopher
Ward
C: $20,580
E: $14,968
COH: $1,350
![Jeremy Story](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd52_story.jpg)
Jeremy
Story
C: $11,909
E: $10,674
COH: $1,194
HD62
Larry Phillips is running for District Judge.
![Reggie Smith](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd62_smith.jpg)
Reggie
Smith
C: $75,870
E: $47,564
COH: $42,015
![Kevin Couch](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd62_couch.jpg)
Kevin
Couch
C: $26,765
E: $11,213
COH: $2,440
![Brent Lawson](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd62_lawson.jpg)
Brent
Lawson
C: $13,716
E: $22,451
COH: $10,305
HD109
Helen Giddings is retiring.
![Carl Sherman](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd109_sherman.jpg)
Carl
Sherman
C: $11,728
E: $5,788
COH: $5,996
![Deshaundra Jones](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd109_jones.jpg)
Deshaundra
Jones
C: $6,327
E: $4,225
COH: $100
Christopher Graham and Victoria Watson have not filed campaign finance reports.
HD113
Cindy Burkett is running for Texas Senate.
![Jonathan Boos](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd113_boos.jpg)
Jonathan
Boos
C: $102,129
E: $66,912
COH: $56,897
![Charlie Lauersdorf](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd113_lauersdorf.jpg)
Charlie
Lauersdorf
C: $12,740
E: $23,198
COH: $24,110
![Jim Phaup](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd113_phaup.jpg)
Jim
Phaup
C: $7,300
E: $43,110
COH: $300
HD121
Joe Straus is retiring.
![Marc Whyte](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd121_whyte.jpg)
Marc
Whyte
C: $118,242
E: $29,923
COH: $85,423
![Steve Allison](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd121_allison.jpg)
Steve
Allison
C: $59,743
E: $133,316
COH: $63,840
![Matt Beebe](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd121_beebe.jpg)
Matt
Beebe
C: $54,655
E: $36,856
COH: $25,206
![Carlton Soules](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd121_soules.jpg)
Carlton
Soules
C: $18,800
E: $12,289
COH: $29,511
5th: Adrian Spears (C: $8,251, E: $10,494, COH: $954)
6th: Charlotte Williamson (C: $650, E: $54,315, COH: $47,085)
HD126
Kevin Roberts is running for Congress.
![Sam Harless](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd126_harless.jpg)
Sam
Harless
C: $108,690
E: $93,795
COH: $31,885
![Kevin Fulton](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd126_fulton.jpg)
Kevin
Fulton
C: $84,369
E: $54,426
COH: $59,217
![Gail Stanart](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd126_stanart.jpg)
Gail
Stanart
C: $12,376
E: $17,382
COH: $7,847
Open-seat Primaries with Two Candidates
%
Higher Total
%
Lower Total
%
Higher Total
%
Lower Total
SD8
Van Taylor is running for Congress.
HD15
Mark Keough is running for County Judge.
![Phillip Huffines](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/philliphuffines.jpg)
Phillip
Huffines
C: $1,237,466
E: $3,101,090
COH: $1,351,389
![Angela Paxton](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/sd8_paxton.jpg)
Angela
Paxton
C: $617,112
E: $476,867
COH: $2,084,524
![Steve Toth](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/hd15_toth.jpg)
Steve
Toth
C: $121,744
E: $75,759
COH: $45,545
![Jackie Waters](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd15_waters.jpg)
Jackie
Waters
C: $26,408
E: $8,591
COH: $47,884
HD89
Jodie Laubenberg is retiring.
HD106
Pat Fallon is running for Texas Senate.
![Candy Noble](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd89_noble.jpg)
Candy
Noble
C: $46,944
E: $41,396
COH: $107,794
![John Payton](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd89_payton.jpg)
John
Payton
C: $36,980
E: $16,505
COH: $19,482
![Jared Patterson](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/hd106_patterson.jpg)
Jared
Patterson
C: $112,291
E: $96,248
COH: $62,440
![Clint Bedsole](https://txelects.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hd106_bedsole.jpg)
Clint
Bedsole
C: $80,009
E: $88,141
COH: $30,754
We will analyze the contributions in some of these races and will re-do this report after 8-day-out campaign finance reports are filed (due February 26). We will perform this analysis for congressional open seats tomorrow.
©2018 Texas Election Source LLC