Last week, we explored how the success rate of open-seat primary candidates varied with how their contribution totals ranked among their rival candidates. In general, money has been a pretty good predictor of primary success since at least 2006, the first year of our study frame:
- 77% of candidates who raised the most money either won outright or advanced to a runoff
- 58% of candidates who had the second-highest contribution total won outright or advanced to a runoff
- 25% of candidates who had the third-highest contribution total advanced to a runoff (None won outright.); and
- 9% of candidates ranked fourth or lower advanced to a runoff (None won outright.).
Nearly all of the candidates ranked third and lower who advanced to a runoff emerged from larger pools of candidates. Just one of every 20 candidates who had the lowest contribution total qualified for a runoff, regardless of the number of candidates in the race.
Candidates who raised and spent the most money won 25% of the time, advanced 58% of the time and lost or missed the runoff just 16% of the time. None of the outright winners and just 14% of runoff candidates were outside of the top two in both total contributions and total expenditures. Half of all runoffs involved the two candidates who spent the most money.
Today, we examined two-person primary races for open seats and found that money is an even stronger predictor. The candidate with the greater contribution total won 85% of the time.
Our analysis of primary success rates was based on candidates’ ranks as of their 8-day-out (state) or pre-primary (federal) reports. Those reports have not been filed yet this year. With this in mind, today we look at the total contributions for candidates in open-seat primary races for statewide office and the legislature as of the candidates’ 30-day-out reports. Candidates are ranked in order of their total contributions, which is the sum of all contributions reported in all of their campaign finance reports for this election cycle filed to date. For state candidates, these cover contributions received between January 1, 2017, and January 25, 2018.
Keep in mind that the percentages shown are historical, based on candidates’ contribution ranks. We do not consider them an actual measurement of the likelihood that a particular candidate will win or advance. Instead, looking across all the races, recent history suggests that about three out of every four candidates in the first column can be expected to win or advance, a little more than half of the candidates in the second column can be expected to advance, and so on. Below that, we will look at the two-person races.
%
Ranked FIrst
%
Ranked Second
%
Ranked Third
%
Ranked Fourth or Lower
Open-seat Primaries with Three or More Candidates
Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 8
Elsa Alcala is retiring.
Dib
Waldrip
C: $70,085
E: $63,125
COH: $18,718
Michelle
Slaughter
C: $62,125
E: $39,000
COH: $34,545
Jay
Brandon
C: $1,950
E: $4,162
COH: $532
as of 12/31
HD4
Lance Gooden is running for Congress.
Stuart
Spitzer
C: $148,563
E: $86,632
COH: $88,910
Ashley
McKee
C: $37,043
E: $30,538
COH: $20,586
Keith
Bell
C: $30,475
E: $77,588
COH: $133,898
Earl
Brunner
C: $155
E: $4,029
COH: $0
HD8
Byron Cook is retiring.
Thomas
McNutt
C: $480,792
E: $210,576
COH: $229,235
Cody
Harris
C: $149,986
E: $21,001
COH: $79,172
Linda
Timmerman
C: $36,130
E: $12,841
COH: $11,491
HD13
Leighton Schubert resigned.
Jill
Wolfskill
C: $103,021
E: $37,546
COH: $70,190
Ben
Leman
C: $22,825
E: $30,174
COH: $93,659
David
Stall
C: $8,235
E: $7,612
COH: $1,781
Marc
Young
C: $2,086
E: $4,029
COH: $3,122
5th: Daniel McCarthy (C: $300, E: $1,075, COH: $0)
HD45
Jason Isaac is running for Congress.
Amber
Pearce
C: $126,605
E: $43,722
COH: $93,483
Ken
Strange
C: $28,385
E: $7,997
COH: $29,000
Naomi
Narvaiz
C: $8,960
E: $7,508
COH: $1,100
Austin
Talley
C: $2,625
E: $3,984
COH: $291
5th: Amy Akers (C: $0, E: $0, COH: $0)
HD52
Larry Gonzales is retiring.
Cynthia
Flores
C: $91,978
E: $31,948
COH: $16,512
Christopher
Ward
C: $20,580
E: $14,968
COH: $1,350
Jeremy
Story
C: $11,909
E: $10,674
COH: $1,194
HD62
Larry Phillips is running for District Judge.
Reggie
Smith
C: $75,870
E: $47,564
COH: $42,015
Kevin
Couch
C: $26,765
E: $11,213
COH: $2,440
Brent
Lawson
C: $13,716
E: $22,451
COH: $10,305
HD109
Helen Giddings is retiring.
Carl
Sherman
C: $11,728
E: $5,788
COH: $5,996
Deshaundra
Jones
C: $6,327
E: $4,225
COH: $100
Christopher Graham and Victoria Watson have not filed campaign finance reports.
HD113
Cindy Burkett is running for Texas Senate.
Jonathan
Boos
C: $102,129
E: $66,912
COH: $56,897
Charlie
Lauersdorf
C: $12,740
E: $23,198
COH: $24,110
Jim
Phaup
C: $7,300
E: $43,110
COH: $300
HD121
Joe Straus is retiring.
Marc
Whyte
C: $118,242
E: $29,923
COH: $85,423
Steve
Allison
C: $59,743
E: $133,316
COH: $63,840
Matt
Beebe
C: $54,655
E: $36,856
COH: $25,206
Carlton
Soules
C: $18,800
E: $12,289
COH: $29,511
5th: Adrian Spears (C: $8,251, E: $10,494, COH: $954)
6th: Charlotte Williamson (C: $650, E: $54,315, COH: $47,085)
HD126
Kevin Roberts is running for Congress.
Sam
Harless
C: $108,690
E: $93,795
COH: $31,885
Kevin
Fulton
C: $84,369
E: $54,426
COH: $59,217
Gail
Stanart
C: $12,376
E: $17,382
COH: $7,847
Open-seat Primaries with Two Candidates
%
Higher Total
%
Lower Total
%
Higher Total
%
Lower Total
SD8
Van Taylor is running for Congress.
HD15
Mark Keough is running for County Judge.
Phillip
Huffines
C: $1,237,466
E: $3,101,090
COH: $1,351,389
Angela
Paxton
C: $617,112
E: $476,867
COH: $2,084,524
Steve
Toth
C: $121,744
E: $75,759
COH: $45,545
Jackie
Waters
C: $26,408
E: $8,591
COH: $47,884
HD89
Jodie Laubenberg is retiring.
HD106
Pat Fallon is running for Texas Senate.
Candy
Noble
C: $46,944
E: $41,396
COH: $107,794
John
Payton
C: $36,980
E: $16,505
COH: $19,482
Jared
Patterson
C: $112,291
E: $96,248
COH: $62,440
Clint
Bedsole
C: $80,009
E: $88,141
COH: $30,754
We will analyze the contributions in some of these races and will re-do this report after 8-day-out campaign finance reports are filed (due February 26). We will perform this analysis for congressional open seats tomorrow.
©2018 Texas Election Source LLC
