Revisiting Our Election Predictions

Now that most of the dust has settled, we take a look back at our predictions about the overall state climate and specific legislative and congressional races. We’ll take each of our five predictions in order. 1. Republicans sweep statewide races, including the...

‘Late-train’ Money Favors Federal Races

“Late-train” money is flowing into close Congressional races but largely ignoring state races as the election campaign nears its end. Part of this disparity is due to the dates covered. Congressional candidates began disclosing contributions in “24-hour” reports on...

Early Voting Continues Record-setting Pace

Early voting in person began Monday and runs through November 2. First, a look back at historic Day 1. More than 572K people voted early in person on Monday, or their mail ballots were returned by Monday, in the 15 counties with the most registered voters. That is...

Identifying Districts Potentially in Play, Part 7

We have been exploring seats potentially in play by looking at specific metrics defining not only how a district voted in the most recent election but also how those voting patterns have changed over time. We also looked at fundraising totals and their historic impact...

Endorsements, Ads and Other News for October 18

Early voting for the November 6 general election begins Monday. GOV: The campaign of former Dallas Co. Sheriff Lupe Valdez (D) released a new ad, “Lone Star,” a biographical spot. Meanwhile, the Dallas Morning News, San Antonio Express-News and Longview News-Journal...

Identifying Districts Potentially in Play, Part 6

Back in July, as part of our series of analyses identifying districts potentially in play, we found that a challenging party’s candidate raised at least half as much as the incumbent party’s candidate in 90% of the Texas legislative and congressional seats that were...