Nov 13, 2018 | General Elections, Political Climate
Now that most of the dust has settled, we take a look back at our predictions about the overall state climate and specific legislative and congressional races. We’ll take each of our five predictions in order. 1. Republicans sweep statewide races, including the...
Nov 7, 2018 | Election Night Returns
We’re still waiting on the last few boxes, mostly located in the big urban counties, to be reported. As of 3:45 a.m. CST, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leads U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, 51%-48%, with 98% of precincts reporting. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leads former Dallas Co....
Nov 5, 2018 | Federal Race Analyses, House Race Analyses, Political Climate, Senate Race Analyses
This is the second of two analyses that will attempt to prognosticate Tuesday’s general election. Here we focus on individual races. Our previous analysis examined the state’s political climate entering the election. Borrowing from Monty Python, “That’s no ordinary...
Nov 1, 2018 | Campaign Finance
“Late-train” money is flowing into close Congressional races but largely ignoring state races as the election campaign nears its end. Part of this disparity is due to the dates covered. Congressional candidates began disclosing contributions in “24-hour” reports on...
Oct 30, 2018 | Campaign Finance
Opposed state and legislative candidates were required to file 8-day-out campaign finance reports yesterday (Monday). These reports include contributions received and expenditures made between September 28 and October 27. We are in the process of updating our Crib...
Oct 19, 2018 | Political Climate
We have been exploring seats potentially in play by looking at specific metrics defining not only how a district voted in the most recent election but also how those voting patterns have changed over time. We also looked at fundraising totals and their historic impact...
Oct 17, 2018 | Political Climate
Back in July, as part of our series of analyses identifying districts potentially in play, we found that a challenging party’s candidate raised at least half as much as the incumbent party’s candidate in 90% of the Texas legislative and congressional seats that were...
Oct 10, 2018 | Campaign Finance
Note: This report has been updated since we issued our Breaking News alert. State, legislative and local (where required) candidates facing general election opponents were required to file 30-day-out campaign finance reports yesterday. Most of those have become...
Sep 27, 2018 | Political Climate
We continue our look at districts potentially in play in November with our first statewide exploration of straight-party voting trends in Republican-held districts. Prior analyses have looked at districts that are bluer than the state as a whole, districts won by...
Sep 10, 2018 | House Race Analyses, Political Climate, Senate Race Analyses
The general election is eight weeks away, and early voting begins six weeks from today. Traditionally, we have rated contested elections on a 5-star scale, which one star indicating a very low-interest race with no chance of flipping and five stars indicating a...
Aug 23, 2018 | Campaign News
SD6 “open”: Attorneys representing Sen. Sylvia Garcia (D-Houston) sent a letter to Harris Co. Clerk Stan Stanart demanding he “immediately order a special election” to coincide with the general election. They point to Art. 3, Sec. 13 of the Texas Constitution, which...
Jul 23, 2018 | Political Climate
Today we continue our exploration of districts that may be in play in the general election by looking at the contribution totals of the candidates as of their July semiannual (state) and July quarterly (federal) campaign finance reports. Since 2004, 62 Texas...
