Identifying Districts Potentially in Play, Part 3

Today we continue our exploration of districts that may be in play in the general election by looking at the contribution totals of the candidates as of their July semiannual (state) and July quarterly (federal) campaign finance reports. Since 2004, 62 Texas...

Key Legislative Race Campaign Finance Highlights

State candidates and officeholders were required to file their July semiannual campaign finance reports yesterday (Monday). These reports include contributions received and expenditures made between the last date covered by a report and June 30. The reporting period...

Patrick Raises $4.5M and Other News for July 12

LTGOV: The campaign of Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) announced he raised $4.5M since February 24, which was the end of the reporting period for the primary election, which is the second-highest contribution figure ever reported by a LTGOV candidate for any single reporting...

Two Democrats Release Favorable Internal Polls

Internal polls released this time of year typically are intended to encourage the base and improve fundraising prospects. Campaigns release them only if they show what the candidates want shown. Today, we briefly look at a pair of such polls, one for the Democratic...

Identifying Districts in Play This November, Part 1

Today we begin our exploration of districts that may be in play in the general election by examining a metric we call “relative performance factors,” which measure the partisan lean of a district relative to the state. Two dozen Texas congressional and...

Leman Sworn in and Other News for May 31

HD13: Rep. Ben Leman (R-Iola) took the oath of office today and will serve the remainder of former Rep. Leighton Schubert’s (R-Caldwell) term. Leman defeated Jill Wolfskill, 57%-43%, in the Republican runoff. Wolfskill withdrew from the special runoff election,...

Primary Election Toplines

It’s after 2 a.m., and another primary election is now in the record books, or will be when those last 97 boxes are counted. We wanted to highlight a few facts and observations about the election tonight. We will go into more detail in the coming days. For now,...

Gutierrez Eyes SD19 and Other Election News for March 1

SD19: Rep. Roland Gutierrez (D-San Antonio) will hold “an important announcement on his plans for working together with the communities of Senate District 19 on moving forward” on March 10 in San Antonio. Gutierrez is unopposed for re-election to HD119. Earlier this...

Big Bets in Key Races Revealed in 8-day-out Reports

After 5 p.m. today, the Texas Ethics Commission posted totals for the 8-day-out reports candidates filed on Monday. The actual reports are generally not yet available, but we were able to determine many candidates’ largest donors between January 26 and February 24. We...

Incumbents Generally Ahead in 30-day-out Reports

State candidates with primary opponents were required to file 30-day-out campaign finance reports on Monday. These are normally accessible online early the next morning, but today they were not available until late afternoon. We are in the process of going through the...

By the Numbers: Outperforming Trump

4 Number of Republican candidates for state representative whose vote percentage was exceeded by Donald Trump in the 2016 general election. There were 53 state House seats contested by a Republican and a Democrat in 2016. In 49 of those races, the Republican state...