Internal polls released this time of year typically are intended to encourage the base and improve fundraising prospects. Campaigns release them only if they show what the candidates want shown. Today, we briefly look at a pair of such polls, one for the Democratic challenger in SD10 and another conducted for End Citizens United about one of its endorsed candidates.
SD10: The Beverly Powell (D) campaign released an internal poll showing her leading Sen. Konni Burton (R-Colleyville), 46%-42%. Powell’s lead increases to 9 points after positive statements are made about each candidate.
Crosstabs were not provided. The polling memo says Powell leads Burton, 50%-26%, among “independent” voters. According to the methodology, 40% of respondents self-identified as Republicans, 36% as Democrats and 25% as independents.
Chris Perkins, who does polling for Burton, called the poll “fake news” and another more colorful term on Twitter.
Burton defeated Democratic nominee Libby Wills, 53%-45%, in the 2014 general election, in which 37% of voters cast Republican straight-party votes, 29% cast Democratic straight-party votes and 34% voted the full ballot. Burton received 51% of the full-ballot vote head-to-head over Willis.
The poll also shows U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) leading U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R), 49%-45%, in the district.
The poll of 600 “likely November 2018 SD10 voters” was conducted by FrederickPolls via telephone (38% to mobile numbers) and in the field May 14-21. Its stated margin of error is ±4.0%.
SEN: A new poll conducted for End Citizens United shows U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leading U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso), 49%-43%. The group previously endorsed O’Rourke “based on his record fighting for reform and his decision to reject PAC money.” No other information was provided in the polling memo, except the vague statement that O’Rourke “is not yet known to all Texans.” The Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll of 1,000 “likely 2018 voters, as well as two supplemental oversamples from the Austin and San Antonio media markets, was in the field May 29 to June 5. Its stated margin of error is ±3.1%.
CD32: National pundit Charlie Cook moved the seat held by U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions (R-Dallas) to “toss up” from “lean Republican.” Cook also rates CD7, held by U.S. Rep. John Culberson (R-Houston), as a toss up, and he has CD23, held by U.S. Rep. Will Hurd (R-San Antonio), in the “lean Republican” column.
HD114 open: The Texas State Teachers Assoc. endorsed Democratic nominee John Turner.
Election Day: Saturday is runoff Election Day for a number of municipalities and other local jurisdictions. We do not anticipate offering live coverage and will instead provide a summary of key races on Sunday.
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