Big Bets in Key Races Revealed in 8-day-out Reports

After 5 p.m. today, the Texas Ethics Commission posted totals for the 8-day-out reports candidates filed on Monday. The actual reports are generally not yet available, but we were able to determine many candidates’ largest donors between January 26 and February 24. We are in the process of updating our Crib Sheets and Hot Races,

As it has been in recent primary seasons, the biggest bets have been placed in Republican primaries featuring a movement conservative-backed candidate opposing an incumbent. Empower Texans PAC and Texas Right to Life PAC combined to spend $2.6M during the period. Large contributions were also made by Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) in races on behalf of incumbents, challengers and open-seat candidates.

In other races, the absence of activity from movement conservative groups and other large donors suggests their preferred candidates are on their own.

In this report, we look at our Hot Races featuring an incumbent seeking re-election plus the open SD8 race. We will look at the other open seats tomorrow.

Statewide Races

GOV: Gov. Greg Abbott’s cash-on-hand total of $41.0M is almost as much as the combined cash on hand of every candidate running for Congress from Texas ($42.2M). On the Democratic side, Andrew White out-raised Lupe Valdez 2-to-1 and outspent her 4-to-1.

LAND: Comm. George P. Bush out-raised former Comm. Jerry Patterson, $319K to $70K, and outspent him by nearly $2M.

AGRIC: Comm. Sid Miller out-raised Trey Blocker, $138K to $95K, and narrowly outspent him, $369K to $339K.

Senate

SD2: Rep. Cindy Burkett (R-Sunnyvale) out-raised Sen. Bob Hall (R-Edgewood), $462K to $356K, but Hall outspent Burkett, $492K to $258K. At least $216K of Hall’s contributions came from Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R). Burkett received at least $107K from Associated Republicans of Texas and $102K from Texas Assoc. of Realtors TREPAC.

SD8 open: Phillip Huffines and Angela Paxton spent more than $5M combined during the period. Over the course of the campaign, Huffines has outspent Paxton, $6.0M to $2.7M. Paxton out-raised Huffines, $365K to $138K, for the period, but Huffines added another $2.3M in loan principal, bringing his total debt to $4.3M. Paxton’s loan principal remained at $2M, which came from Atty Gen. Ken Paxton’s (R) campaign during the previous reporting period.

SD17: Sen. Joan Huffman (R-Houston) out-raised Kristin Tassin, $335K to $177K, and outspent her, $807K to $227K. Tassin gave $150K to her campaign, accounting for 85% of her contributions, and increased her loan principal by $150K.

SD30: Sen. Craig Estes (R-Wichita Falls) out-raised Rep. Pat Fallon (R-Frisco), $247K to $184K, but was narrowly outspent by the challenger, $586K to $559K. More than half of Fallon’s contributions came from Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R).

SD31: Challenger Mike Canon out-raised Sen. Kel Seliger (R-Amarillo), $458K to $343K, but Seliger out-spent Canon, $719K to $341K. Empower Texans PAC and two of its largest donors – Tim Dunn and Kyle Stallings – accounted for 86% of Canon’s contributions during the period. Victor Leal, the third Republican in the race, raised $52 and spent $205K.

House Republican Races

HD2: Rep. Dan Flynn (R-Van) out-raised Bryan Slaton, $175K to $61K, and narrowly outspent him, $88K to $83K. Each candidate has more than $60K on hand. Empower Texans contributed $25K to Slaton.

HD9: Rep. Chris Paddie (R-Marshall) out-raised Garrett Boersma, $255K to $185K, and outspent him, $259K to $210K. Almost 95% of Boersma’s funds came from three sources: New Leadership PAC ($100K), Empower Texans PAC ($50K) and Houston businessman Alex Cranberg ($25K).

HD18: Rep. Ernest Bailes (R-Shepherd) out-raised Emily Cook, $200K to $92K, and outspent her, $164K to $120K. More than half of Cook’s funds came from Texas Right to Life PAC.

HD23: At first glance, challenger Mayes Middleton out-raised Rep. Wayne Faircloth (R-Dickinson), $1.1M to $212K, but almost all of that was Middleton’s forgiving the loan he made to his campaign. Middleton actually raised less than $9K. The challenger outspent Faircloth, $373K to $246K, for the period and has outspent the incumbent, $1.2M to $491K, for the campaign.

HD25: Challenger Damon Rambo reported less than $1K in contributions and was outspent by Rep. Dennis Bonnen (R-Angleton), $165K to $50K.

HD47: Rep. Paul Workman (R-Austin) out-raised Jay Wiley, $112K to $20K, and outspent him, $234K to $62K. The third Republican candidate reported no contributions in a report marked final.

HD55: Rep. Hugh Shine (R-Temple) raised $200K, well more than his two challengers ($31K combined), and he spent $250K, nearly five times the combined spending of his rivals.

HD59: Rep. J.D. Sheffield (R-Gatesville) out-raised Chris Evans, $218K to $76K, but was narrowly outspent by the challenger, $53K to $45K. Sheffield has a nearly $150K advantage in cash on hand. Texas Right to Life PAC accounted for 86% of Evans’s contributions.

HD60: Rep. Mike Lang (R-Granbury) out-raised Jim Largent, $279K to $56K, and outspent him, $305K to $82K. More than 70% of Lang’s contributions came from three sources: Empower Texans PAC ($100K), Farris Wilks ($75K) and Texas Right to Life PAC ($25K). Largent’s largest contribution came from former Rep. Jim Keffer ($10K).

HD73: Challenger Dave Campbell out-raised Rep. Kyle Biedermann (R-Fredericksburg), $104K to $55K, but the incumbent outspent him, $147K to $82K. Biedermann received $10K each from Empower Texans PAC and Texas Right to Life PAC. Campbell received $30K from Texas Farm Bureau AGFUND and $26K from Associated Republicans of Texas PAC. In a daily report filed today, Biedermann reported an additional $40K contribution from Empower Texans PAC.

HD87: Rep. Four Price (R-Amarillo) out-raised Drew Brassfield, $154K to $11K, and outspent him, $66K to $19K.

HD88: Rep. Ken King (R-Canadian) out-raised each of his two opponents by more than $250K, but his expenditure advantage was much smaller. King raised $312K and spent $196K. Jason Huddleston, the movement conservative-backed candidate, raised $54K and spent $60K. Richard Beyea raised $24K and spent $149K. King received $130K from the Texas House Leadership Fund. More than 83% of Huddleston’s funds came from Empower Texans PAC ($25K) and Texas Right to Life PAC ($20K).

HD98: Rep. Giovanni Capriglione (R-Southlake) out-raised Armin Mizani, $305K to $132K, and narrowly outspent him, $148K to $135K. A little over half of Capriglione’s contributions came from Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC. More than 90% of Mizani’s contributions came from three sources: Empower Texans PAC ($75K), Texas Right to Life PAC ($25K) and Dallas-based Dartmore GP ($20K).

HD99: Rep. Charlie Geren (R-Fort Worth) out-raised Bo French, $585K to $126K, and outspent him, $654K to $328K. Geren received $75K from the Texas House Leadership Fund. Nearly half of French’s contributions came from Texas Right to Life PAC.

HD114: Rep. Jason Villalba (R-Dallas) out-raised Lisa Luby Ryan, $188K to $101K, but was narrowly outspent by the challenger, $116K to $107K. Curiously, Ryan still has $179K on hand a week before Election Day. Empower Texans PAC and Texas Right to Life PAC represented about a third of Ryan’s contributions.

HD122: Challenger Chris Fails out-raised Rep. Lyle Larson (R-San Antonio), $268K to $184K, but was outspent by the incumbent, $248K to $108K. More than half of Fails’s contributions were in kind from Gov. Greg Abbott’s ($136K) campaign.

HD134: Rep. Sarah Davis (R-Houston) out-raised Susanna Dokupil, $417K to $173K, and outspent her, $410K to $145K. Davis’s largest contributors include Speaker Joe Straus ($50K), Texas Assoc. of Realtors TREPAC ($25K) and San Antonio grocer Charles Butt ($25K). Dokupil’s largest contributors were Gov. Greg Abbott’s campaign ($53K) and Texas Right to Life PAC ($50K).

House Democratic Races

HD27: Rep. Ron Reynolds (D-Missouri City) out-raised Wilvin Carter, $39K to $6K, but was outspent, $29K to $16K.

HD31: Rep. Ryan Guillen (D-Rio Grande City) narrowly out-raised Ana Lisa Garza, $102K to $88K, and outspent her by $400K. He still has $662K on hand.

HD46: Rep. Dawnna Dukes (D-Austin) reported $10K in contributions, $12K in expenditures, $211K on hand and $831K in debt between her candidate/officeholder and special committee accounts. Sheryl Cole led the field of challengers with $54K in contributions and $54K in expenditures for the period.

HD75: Rep. Mary Gonzalez (D-Clint) narrowly out-raised MarySue Femath, $81K to $67K, but was outspent by the challenger, $68K to $47K. Femath received $30K from Ysleta del Sur Pueblo, which has previously given her $100K, and $15K from Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC.

HD116: Rep. Diana Arévalo (D-San Antonio) out-raised former Rep. Trey Martinez Fischer (D-San Antonio), $97K to $51K, and narrowly outspent him, $83K to $69K.

Upcoming Reports

Candidates must file daily pre-election reports to disclose any contributions in excess of $1K from a single source between February 25 and March 5. Those reports are required to be filed on the next business day after receiving the contribution. We will check these periodically for the hot races. We will also look at state and legislative open seats, much as we did for open Congressional seats.

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