Brief Election News for March 5

SD14 special: Rep. Eddie Rodriguez (D-Austin) has scheduled a Saturday morning “announcement regarding my decision whether to run” for the seat being vacated by Sen. Kirk Watson (D-Austin). In our experience, no one schedules an event to announce they’re not running....

Identifying Districts Potentially in Play, Part 7

We have been exploring seats potentially in play by looking at specific metrics defining not only how a district voted in the most recent election but also how those voting patterns have changed over time. We also looked at fundraising totals and their historic impact...

What a 20-point Abbott Win Would Mean for O’Rourke

Most of the national attention, when it has turned to Texas this year, has been focused on U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) and his challenge of U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R). Polls have consistently shown him trailing by just single-digits in a state that hasn’t sent a...

Identifying Districts Potentially in Play, Part 5

Last week we explored the shift in straight-party voting advantage in Republican-held districts toward the Democrats. Today we explore each party’s roles in those shifts. Between 2012 and 2016, Democrats either cut into the Republican straight-party advantage or...