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Recently Posted News & Analysis
National Dems Canceling Ad Reservations for CD15
Tomorrow (Tues.) is the deadline to register for the November 8 general election. Early voting by personal appearance begins Oct. 24. Absentee voting is already underway.
CD15 open (Lean R): Axios’s Josh Kraushaar reported the House Majority PAC is planning to cancel scheduled ad reservations that would have supported Democratic nominee Michelle Vallejo. He added that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is not providing any additional support. Last week, we moved the district to Lean R from Toss Up.
Former President Trump carried the district, 51%-48%, as did Sen. John Cornyn (R), 51%-46%, but Democratic candidates split the other statewide races.
Voter Fraud: During a Fox News Channel appearance yesterday (Sun.), Secretary of State John Scott listed numerous steps his office and county election officials are taking to ensure the integrity of election results. Scott said people can “absolutely” have faith in the country’s elections. Asked what he would say to people who do not believe him, Scott said, “There are those who are misinformed, and they’re going to hold on to their foundations no matter what.”
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
New Race Ratings for 10 Contested Seats, 23 with No or Little Opposition
Up to this point, our race ratings have been based on each district’s partisan lean in the last two election cycles while ignoring the candidates seeking those districts. That’s why Rep. Tracy King’s (D-Batesville) district has been consistently rated a Toss Up even though he drew no opponents.
Our latest model run incorporates longer-term partisan trends for the 219 redrawn legislative and congressional districts and accounts for significant campaign finance disparities. We have also moved to Safe status any seats where a major party candidate is either unopposed or facing solely minor party, independent or write-in opponents.
The model run moved 10 contested seats, four toward Republicans and six toward Democrats, and 23 seats not contested by both major parties.
How We Calculate Partisan Lean
We rate seats using on a seven-point scale from Safe Republican to Safe Democrat based on our formulas for calculating how much redder or bluer a district is than the state as a whole. We plug our best guess estimate for the average statewide Democratic candidate, measured head-to-head against the Republican candidate, then “float” the districts above or below that percentage based on past history, recent voting trends, campaign finance numbers and, in a typical year, the incumbent’s tendency to over- or under-perform their party’s candidates. At this point, we have chosen not to use the incumbent’s past performance because districts have been redrawn, and their past performance may not apply to their new constituents.
As a starting point, we’re projecting a 7.6-point margin between Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke (52.8%-45.2%), reflecting the general trend in recent polls showing a high single-digit lead for Abbott with increasing margins as the certainty of voting increases. We anticipate another tight grouping of statewide candidates and estimate O’Rourke outperforms the average of his fellow statewide Democratic candidates by around a quarter-point, yielding a statewide average of 45.85% measured head-to-head against their Republican opponents.
We then weight the relative changes in partisan lean of the districts as they are now configured from 2018 to 2020 (70% weight), 2016 to 2018 (25% weight) and 2012 to 2016 (5% weight). We then take 75% of this adjusted score and add it to the 2020 partisan lean score to estimate the ongoing shift in the district’s electorate since then. We then add adjustments for relative campaign finance advantages and in a couple of special cases added an incumbent performance advantage or disadvantage.
The formula then provides, for each district, an expected deviation from the statewide partisan lean, regardless of where that mean lean occurs. Adding that figure to the statewide Democratic estimate (45.85% for now) delivers an expected head-to-head vote percentage of the Democratic candidate in each race. Those scores lead to an objective rating from Safe Republican (37.49% or less) to Safe Democrat (62.5% or more).
Results of the Model Run
The following ratings changes arose completely from our model:
- HD23 open (Leo-Wilson) Likely R à Safe R
- HD31 (Guillen) Likely R à Safe R
- HD33 (Holland) Safe R à Likely R
- HD63 open (Bumgarner) Likely R à Lean R
- HD70 open (Plesa) Toss Up à Lean D
- HD121 (Allison) Likely R à Lean R
- HD133 open (DeAyala) Likely R à Lean R
- CD5 (Gooden) Safe R à Likely R
- CD15 open (De la Cruz-Hernandez) Toss Up à Lean R
- CD23 (Gonzales) Lean R à Likely R
Four seats – three in South Texas – shifted toward Republicans, and six seats shifted toward Democrats.
Another 19 seats shifted to Safe R from Likely R because no Democrat is seeking those seats, and four seats shifted to Safe D from Likely D because no Republican is seeking them. The biggest shift in any direction is HD80, which moved from Toss Up to Safe D because no one ran against Rep. Tracy King (D-Batesville).
As it now stands, 86 legislative and congressional seats are rated Safe R, and 62 are rated Safe D. Combined, 61% of Senate seats, 69% of House seats and 68% of congressional seats are now rated as Safe. Another 35 seats are rated Likely R, and 20 are rated Likely D. In total, 203 of the 219 legislative and congressional seats – 93% percent – on the ballot are rated Safe (68%) or Likely (25%) for their respective parties.
That leaves 14 in the Lean category (6%) – seven for each party – and just two seats rated Toss Up: Democrat-held HD74 (Morales) and Republican-held HD118 (Lujan).
As a result, our projections for control of the state House moved to 85-65 Republican, up one Republican seat from the current split but down one seat from our original 86-64 projection. The difference is the move of HD70 open to Lean D from Toss Up. Our projections for the state Senate (19-12 R) and congressional delegation (25-13 R) remain unchanged.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
Ryan: No Post-Dobbs Surge in Voter Registrations
Texas is closing in on 17.6M registered voters as Tuesday’s deadline approaches, representing a net increase of 410K since the March primary and 640K since November 2020.
According to Republican consultant and data nerd Derek Ryan’s analysis, there have been 421K voter registrations since the U.S. Supreme Court issued its Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade. This is roughly the same number of new registrations as occurred during the same period in 2018. The percentage of new registrants who are women stands at 52.1%, a fraction above the same period in 2018 (51.5%). The same is true for new registrants under age 30 this year (46%) and in 2018 (47%).
Ryan concludes that there has been no surge in voter registrations since the Dobbs decision, and it certainly does appear to be the case.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
Ad, Endorsement and Poll News for October 4
Early voting by personal appearance begins in 20 days. As of yesterday (Mon.), a little over 3K absentee ballots have been returned to counties reporting numbers this far out from election day.
The deadline to register to vote is one week from today, Tuesday Oct. 11.
LTGOV (Lean R): Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick’s (R) campaign released a new ad, “Accountability,” featuring a woman identified as Robin praising Patrick for demanding the resignations of the Public Utility Commissioners and ERCOT’s board members.
LAND (Likely R): Land Comm. George P. Bush (R) endorsed Sen. Dawn Buckingham (R-Lakeway) to succeed him.
Biz Endorsements: The Texas Assoc. of Business PAC released its list of general election endorsements. The group mostly endorsed Republican officeholders and candidates but no challengers to Democratic incumbents. Nearly 20 Democrats received endorsements. Notably absent were statewide endorsements for AG (Lean R) and RRC (Likely R) – races for which the group has not endorsed at all this cycle – and most returning members of the House Freedom Caucus.
New PAC: Former Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman (R) is chairing a new PAC aimed at supporting Latina candidates. The Conservative Hispanas in Action PAC “will change the status quo by supporting and empowering conservative women seeking public office,” Guzman said in a release. The PAC released a list of endorsements including Justice Rebeca Huddle (R) for SC5 (Likely R), Janie Lopez for HD37 open (Lean D), Republican challenger Michelle Lopez for HD45 (Likely D) and Kronda Thimesch for HD65 open (Likely R).
Harris County: A new poll conducted for Defend Liberty PAC shows Republican challenger Alexandra del Moral Mealer leading County Judge Lina Hidalgo (D), 48%-44%. The same poll has Beto O’Rourke leading Gov. Greg Abbott (R), 48%-46%, in the county.
‘Voter Fraud’: In today’s lesson about why Twitter is a wasteland, the Double-A Senators from Pennsylvania’s capital city get mistaken for the politicians of the commonwealth’s upper chamber.
She was replying to a tweet about the team’s groundskeepers.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
Court Denies Rehearing in Paxton’s Quest for Election Code Prosecutions
The Court of Criminal Appeals again held that Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton’s (R) office has no authority to prosecute Election Code crimes when it denied his motion for rehearing. In December, the court struck down a new law enabling Paxton’s office to prosecute election law cases without the consent of the local district attorney, who has jurisdiction over such prosecutions.
Paxton tweeted the timing of the all-Republican court’s decision “is no accident – this is devastating for the integrity of our upcoming elections.”
The ruling came without further explanation. Judge Scott Walker (R) filed a concurring opinion. Two judges – Michelle Slaughter (R) and Kevin Yeary (R) – issued dissents.
Walker wrote “one of the possible ramifications” of giving Paxton’s office the power to prosecute election crimes would give any future AG “the unfettered power … to bring possibly fabricated criminal charges against every candidate running for public office in the State of Texas who disagrees with the attorney general’s political ideals.” Further, Walker reasoned, the power to prosecute crimes constitutionally resides solely within the judicial branch of government. “As a part of the executive department, the attorney general cannot exercise a power – prosecuting crimes – that belongs to the judicial branch.”
Yeary, who dissented on the December ruling, argued that prosecution of crimes was “actually an executive department authority, delegated properly to county and district attorneys under the exception clause to the separation of powers provision.” In Yeary’s view, local prosecutors have the duty to prosecute but not the exclusive power of prosecution.
Slaughter expressed a much narrower vision to find Sec. 273.021, Election Code “constitutional is some circumstances” and would thus support a rehearing.
Pointedly, she noted that Paxton and others “through briefs and by other actions, have spurred hundreds, if not thousands, of individuals from across this state and other states to engage in attempts at impermissible ex parte communications with the Court.” Slaughter wrote these parties “ask (and in several cases demand), in the name of public policy, that we violate our oath to uphold and defend the Texas Constitution, but bowing to current public clamor and overruling the will of the people expressed in the Constitution is the antithesis of our job.”
GOV (Likely R): Yesterday (Tues.), we noted two polls showed very different results among Hispanic/Latino voters for governor. An Emerson Coll. poll showed Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leading Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke, 46%-41%. A Telemundo poll specifically geared toward Hispanic/Latino voters found O’Rourke leading, 54%-31%.
A new poll from Quinnipiac Univ., released today (Wed.), shows O’Rourke with a razor thin 49%-48% lead among Hispanic/Latino voters. Abbott leads overall, 53%-46%, including among independents by the same margin. Abbott leads among White voters, 64%-35%, including by a 73%-27% margin among White men.
The Quinnipiac poll found an ever higher percentage – 96% – of likely voters have their “mind[s] made up” about who they will vote for. Recent polls asking the question have found the percentage closer to 90%.
Interestingly, three quarters of respondents who said they would vote on election day plan to vote for Abbott. O’Rourke leads among in person early voters (53%-46%) and absentee voters (64%-36%). These numbers suggest that O’Rourke’s early voting share will represent his high-water mark against Abbott.
Abbott is just above water in terms of favorability (50/47) but still better off than O’Rourke (44/50). Independents are about evenly split on Abbott (48/47) but on balance a bit sour on O’Rourke (41/49). O’Rourke fares better among Hispanic/Latino voters (52/44) than Abbott (46/51).
Electoral Count Act: U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) was the lone nay vote in a Senate committee considering a bipartisan bill that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said would “clarify and streamline the process” of counting electoral votes. A similar bill passed the House with no Texas Republicans supporting it. As it passed the Senate committee, the bill would require one fifth of each house object to a state’s slate of electors before debate on it could begin. Current law requires a single objector in each chamber.
Brazos County: The Commissioners Court declined to reinstate an early voting location on the Texas A&M Univ. campus.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
2 New Polls’ Hispanic/Latino Voter Preferences Clash
Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke trails Gov. Greg Abbott, 50%-42%, according to a new Emerson Coll. poll. Independents favor Abbott, 44%-37%. The candidates have nearly equal but opposite favorability ratings: Abbott 55/43, O’Rourke 44/52.
Abbott leads O’Rourke among Hispanic/Latino voters, 46%-41%, a finding that runs counter to other recent polls, including a new Telemundo poll of Hispanic/Latino voters. That poll found O’Rourke leading Abbott, 54%-31%, among Hispanic/Latino voters.
LTGOV (Lean R): The Mike Collier (D) campaign released a new ad, “Stand Up to the Extremes,” in which he promises to “stand up to both parties if they’re soft on crime or securing the border.”
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
Poll: Republicans Lead Statewide Races by 5-8 Points
Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leads Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke, 51%-44%, among likely voters, according to a new Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation poll. His lead increases to 53%-43% among “almost certain voters,” continuing a trend observed in recent polls. More than 90% of each candidate’s supporters said they were certain of their vote choice.
Abbott leads O’Rourke by a greater than 2-to-1 margin among White voters (69%-33%) while O’Rourke leads among Black voters (79%-16%) and Hispanic/Latino voters (53%-39%). Abbott leads among men by 18 points (57%-39%) while O’Rourke has a narrow lead among women (48%-46%). Independents favor Abbott, 54%-26%.
How independents break is rather crucial to O’Rourke’s chances. In his 2018 challenge of U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R), O’Rourke received nearly 500K more votes than Democratic gubernatorial nominee Lupe Valdez. Because straight-party votes counted for both, that difference logically had to come from full-ballot voters. O’Rourke received 171K more votes from full-ballot voters than Cruz, but Abbott received 724K more votes from this group than Valdez – a swing of nearly 900K votes. Back-of-the-envelope math suggests between 400K and 500K Texans voted for Abbott and O’Rourke – representing between 24% and 30% of all voters who voted for Abbott that did not do so via straight-party vote.
Of course, O’Rourke was not running against Abbott as he is now, and thus there are no voters who can vote for both this time (Any that do will not have either vote count.). In its October 2018 poll, the Texas Politics Project found O’Rourke leading Cruz, 51%-38%, among independents, and Abbott led Valdez, 58%-30%, among the same group. Full-ballot voters are a larger subset than self-identified independents, but their preferences overall tracked at least in the direction of self-identified independents.
As noted above, independents favor Abbott over O’Rourke, 54%-26%, according to this poll. Other September polls found independents breaking as follows:
- O’Rourke 36%, Abbott 35% (DMN/UT-Tyler)
- Abbott 40%, O’Rourke 22% (UT)
- Abbott 47%, O’Rourke 25% (UH/TSU)
None of those splits is sufficient for O’Rourke.
Republicans lead the remaining polled statewide races by single digits: Patrick +6 (+8 almost certain), Paxton +5 (+7), Hegar +8 (+10), Buckingham +8 (+12), Miller +7 (+11) and Christian +7 (+10). Republicans lead the generic U.S. House ballot, 50%-43%, among likely voters and 53%-42% among almost certain voters.
The survey of 1,172 likely voters was in the field September 6-15 and has a ±3.3% margin of error.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
Same Song, Different Poll: Abbott by 7
Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leads Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke, 50%-43%, according to a new Spectrum News/Siena Coll. poll. It finds Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) leading Democratic challenger Mike Collier, 49%-40%, and Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R) leading Democratic challenger Rochelle Garza, 47%-42%. These topline results are consistent with nearly all recent polls.
Respondents were almost evenly split on their opinion of Abbott (47/46) but a majority views O’Rourke unfavorably (39/52). Patrick (33/36) and Paxton (29/41) are a little underwater with the respondents, but three quarters of them don’t know enough about Collier (13/12) and Garza (13/12) to have an opinion of them.
This poll’s small sample size (n=651) carries a ±4.4% margin of error. Subsets of the full sample have larger errors, so we are not going to look too closely at them.
GOV (Likely R): Nearly $70M has been committed to advertising in the governor’s race, according to AdImpact Politics, a national tracking firm. Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke has spent $16.9M to date, while Coulda Been Worse PAC has spent $10.4M opposing Gov. Greg Abbott (R). Another $16M has been reserved by O’Rourke and the PAC to date. Abbott has spent $19M and reserved an additional $6M.
LTGOV (Lean R): Former Lt. Gov. Bill Ratliff (R-Mount Pleasant) endorsed Democratic challenger Mike Collier over Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R). Ratliff previously endorsed Patrick’s 2018 primary challenger Scott Milder.
HD34 (Likely D): Gov. Greg Abbott (R) endorsed challenger Carolyn Vaughn (R) over Rep. Abel Herrero (D-Robstown).
HD35 (Likely D): Gov. Greg Abbott (R) endorsed challenger Oscar Rosa (R) over Rep. Oscar Longoria (D-Mission).
Realtors’ Endorsements: The Texas Assoc. of Realtors TREPAC released its list of endorsements for the general election. The group endorsed in every statewide and legislative race except for Agriculture Comm., Railroad Comm., the Court of Criminal Appeals and HD116.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
New Poll, Similar Single-digit Lead for Abbott
Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leads Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke, 47%-38%, among registered voters, according to a new Dallas Morning News/Univ. of Texas at Tyler poll. His lead increases slightly to 50%-39% among respondents “certain or probably” voting. These are the largest Abbott leads found by recent polls, but only by a point or two.
Those choices are locked in for more than nine out of 10 people currently supporting a candidate. Among Abbott’s supporters, 79% are “certain” they will not change their mind while another 16% “probably will not.” For O’Rourke, those numbers are 73% and 19%.
Another 6% of “certain or probably” respondents were evenly split among Mark Tippetts (L) and Delilah Barrios (G) – both figures above historical percentages of voters who cast ballots for minor party candidates.
Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) leads Democratic challenger Mike Collier, 39%-28%, among registered voters and 41%-29% among “certain or probably” voters. Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R) leads Democratic challenger Rochelle Garza, 37%-30%, among registered voters and 39%-31% among “certain or probably” voters. More than one in six “certain or probably” respondents said they are “not sure” who they will vote for in the race.
Other notable data points include:
- Independents are slightly more pessimistic about whether the state is headed in the right direction (33/64) than Democrats (37/62).
- Hispanics/Latinos (45/53) and Whites (46/53) have equal opinions about whether the state is headed in the right direction.
- Hispanics/Latinos are slightly more pessimistic of Abbott’s job performance (45/50) as they are President Biden’s (48/47). White respondents are quite clear in their preference between Abbott (59/39) and Biden (28/70).
- Independents are less pessimistic about Abbott’s job performance (37/59) as they are President Biden’s (32/60). And they feel about the same about former President Trump (30/61).
- Independents are also sour on Patrick (25/48) and Paxton’s (28/49) job performances.
- Overall, respondents are evenly split on whether they approve or disapprove of the U.S. Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade (46/46), but independents (35/54) and women (39/51) were more disapproving.
- Hispanics/Latinos (39/45) and independents (24/57) were generally disapproving of Biden’s “handling immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border.” Abbott was viewed slightly better by both groups, 46/43 and 37/47, respectively.
The poll of 1,268 registered voters was conducted online and by phone and was in the field September 6 and 13. The stated margin of error for the full sample was ±2.8%.
©2022 Texas Election Source
Abbott’s Polling Lead Virtually Unchanged Since May
Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leads Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke, 45%-40%, according to a new Univ. of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll. This is virtually unchanged from the June poll (45%-39%).
“Virtually unchanged” has been a theme of recent gubernatorial horse race polls’ topline results since May:
- Abbott +7: Univ. of Houston/Texas Southern Univ. (49%-42%) – Sept (RVs)
- Abbott +7: Dallas Morning News/Univ. of Texas at Tyler (46%-39%) – Aug (Likely Voters)
- Abbott +5: Univ. of Houston/Hobby School (47%-42%) – July (RVs)
- Abbott +8: CBS News (49%-41%) – June (Likely Voters)
- Abbott +6: Univ. of Texas/Texas Politics Project (45%-39%) – June (RVs)
- Abbott +5: Quinnipiac Univ. (48%-43%) – June (RVs)
- Abbott +6: Dallas Morning News/Univ. of Texas at Tyler (46%-39%) – May (RVs)
Abbott has led by at least five points in every poll going back to June 2021 except for a Texas Lyceum poll of RVs in March (+2) and a Rice Univ. poll of RVs last October (+1).
Abbott’s lead has grown typically by 3-5 points as the likelihood of voting has increased, according to the polls that break out results in this manner. The UT poll does not split this out, but 23% of respondents said they voted in “about half” elections “over the past two or three years” or less frequently (or they don’t know how often they voted). Conservatives have a five-point advantage over liberals among people who say they vote in “every election” (44%-39%), and “extremely conservative” voters have a 15-point advantage over “extremely liberal” voters (56%-41%). The extremes are more likely to say they vote in every election than every successive step away from the extremes:
- 56% of extremely conservative respondents vote in every election
- 43% of somewhat conservative respondents
- 32% of lean conservative respondents
- 28% of moderate respondents
- 37% of lean liberal respondents
- 39% of somewhat liberal respondents, and
- 41% of extremely liberal respondents.
Respondents aged 65 and older are more than twice as likely to say they vote in every election (52%) than respondents under 30 years old (24%). Abbott leads among the first group, 55%-39%, while O’Rourke leads among the youngest group of voters, 45%-28%.
Other notable topline results:
- Gov. Dan Patrick (R) leads Mike Collier by 7 (39%-32%)
- Gen. Ken Paxton (R) leads Rochelle Garza by 5 (38%-33%)
- Generic Republican congressional candidate leads by 4 (47%-43%)
- A roughly equal number of respondents have favorable opinions of Abbott, Patrick and Paxton as unfavorable opinions
- President Biden is on balance unpopular (38/53)
- O’Rourke (41/48) has roughly the same favorability rating as former President Trump (41/50)
- A majority of respondents do not want either Biden (59%) or Trump (57%) to run again
- Both major political parties have roughly the same favorability rating, but the Republican Party (41/47) is slightly less disfavored than the Democratic Party (39/49)
- Respondents are equally split on the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, with 44% approving (33% strongly) and 44% disapproving (39% strongly).
The survey of 1,360 registered voters, drawn from an opt-in YouGov panel, was in the field August 26 to September 6. It has a stated margin of error of ±2.83%.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
New PAC Pours $10M into Governor’s Race
A new out-of-state PAC has reserved $10M in statewide advertising time to oppose Gov. Greg Abbott’s (R) re-election. According to an FCC filing, issues the Coulda Been Worse PAC’s ads will cover include “AR-15’s everywhere, mass shootings, education system cratering, abortion bans, rising property taxes, border stunt fails [and] power grid mismanagement.” Ads are expected to appear on broadcast outlets as soon as tomorrow (Friday).
Depending on how the PAC is organized and registered, it is possible its donors would not be disclosed until after the election. It is also possible that its donors are entities which do not have to report their donors.
According to a non-candidate advertiser form filed with KHOU-TV in Houston, the PAC is based in Alexandria, Va., with a Michael Waters as executive director. The requesting ad agency is ICON International Inc. out of Greenwich, Conn.
The KHOU buy is for 357 spots between Sept. 9 and Oct. 9 – a $344K expenditure including ad buying firm’s commission. The PAC has reserved at least 267 spots on KSAT-TV – a $229K expenditure.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
UH/TSU Poll: Abbott, Patrick, Paxton Hold Steady Leads
Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leads Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke among likely voters, 49%-42%, according to a new Univ. of Houston/Texas Southern Univ. poll. Abbott’s lead climbs to 12 points among “almost certain voters,” continuing a trend we’ve observed in polls of Democratic challengers losing ground as the likelihood of voting increases. Abbott also clears 50% among “almost certain voters” (53%-41%).
Among “likely voters,” Abbott leads O’Rourke among independents, 47%-25%, with 23% undecided. Abbott leads among Anglo voters (61%-32%), older voters (61%-33%), voters with a high school or less education (58%-37%), men (55%-37%), voters with a 2-year degree or some college (51%-38%) and Gen X voters (51%-40%). O’Rourke leads among Black voters (72%-15%), Millennials (55%-34%), Gen Z voters (54%-31%) and Hispanic/Latino voters (53%-38%). They are tied among women, 45%-45%, and O’Rourke has a 47%-44% lead among voters with a 4-year degree or more, well within that subsample’s margin of error.
Nearly identical to Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) leads Democratic challenger Mike Collier, 49%-43%, among “likely voters.” His lead increases to 53%-42% among “almost certain voters.” The demographic splits are for the most part within a point or two of the Abbott-O’Rourke numbers. Patrick’s lead among independents (45%-28%) is a bit narrower than Abbott’s advantage.
Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R) leads Democratic challenger Rochelle Garza, 45%-42%, among “likely voters.” As with Abbott and Patrick, Paxton’s lead increases to 49%-41% among “almost certain voters.” Paxton leads but has less support among the demographic groups who support Abbott and Patrick. However, Garza does not pick up those voters. Support for her among groups favoring O’Rourke and Collier is largely unchanged.
The survey of 2,140 adults (including 1,312 “likely voters” and 1,012 “almost certain voters) was conducted in English and Spanish and, apparently, online. It was in the field August 11-29 and has a stated margin of error of ±2.7% for “likely voters” and ±3.1% for “almost certain voters.” Margins of error among subsamples will be higher and potentially more volatile.
LTGOV (Lean R): Retiring Sen. Eddie Lucio Jr. (D-Brownsville) endorsed Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R).
Bailey Co.: County Judge Sherri Harrison (R) has been jailed following a criminal indictment on an official oppression charge. A petition to remove her from office, which was filed by County Attorney Michaela Lee (R), remains pending in district court. Harrison, who has served as the county’s top elected official since 2005, lost her re-election bid in the Republican primary by 46 votes (53%-47%).
Harris Co.: County Judge Lina Hidalgo (D) leads Republican challenger Alexandra del Moral Mealer, 52%-42%, among “likely voters,” according to the previously mentioned Univ. of Houston/Texas Southern Univ. poll. A small sample size (n=195) provides a stated margin of error of ±7.0%, which means Hidalgo’s lead is within the poll’s margin of error.
The del Moral Mealer campaign released a new ad focusing on her biography and crime in the county.
The ad is reportedly part of a $1.5M ad buy, including broadcast and digital.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
2024 Runoff Election
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Laura Carr
Co-Founder & Head of Business Development TXLege AI & Owner TXElects
Laura Carr began her political career in Washington, D.C., working in various policy and communication roles for legislative offices in both the House and Senate on Capitol Hill. Laura later worked in fundraising at The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and No Labels—a bipartisan nonprofit dedicated to finding common-ground solutions.
Laura returned to the Lone Star State, where she served in the Office of the Texas Governor, later making a notable impact as the Government Relations Director at The Brannan Firm. Most recently, Laura was Policy Director specializing in technology policy in the Texas Senate.
Laura earned her Bachelor’s degree in Political Science from the University of Alabama. As Head of Business Development for Texas Election Source, Laura acts as a liaison between new and previous customers.
Jeff Blaylock
TXElects Founder & Senior Editor
Jeff Blaylock offers more than 25 years of political analysis, campaign, government, and advocacy experience, Jeff is a noted expert on Texas elections and the legislative process. He served the Texas House of Representatives as a Chief Committee Clerk for the powerful State Affairs Committee and the Financial Institutions Committee. During his time in the Capitol, Jeff became a legislative process and rules expert. No point of order was ever sustained against the committees’ legislation under his leadership. Jeff served as a policy and budget analyst for the White House’s Office of Management and Budget and the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. He served in various management roles in numerous political campaigns across the country.
He began offering his election insights and predictions to his public affairs clients in 2005. He published Texas Election Source for nearly a decade and returns now as Senior Editor. Jeff understands public policy and the ways issues can resonate in elections. As managing director at the respected public affairs firm Public Strategies (now Hill+Knowlton Strategies), he advised clients on legislative strategies, public affairs, strategic and crisis communication, and brand reputation.
Jeff earned a Bachelor’s degree in journalism with a political science minor from Texas Christian University and a Master’s in public policy from Georgetown University. Jeff is currently the VP of Client Services at Kith, a crisis management consulting firm.
Eric Davis
Co-Founder & CEO TXLege AI & Owner TXElects
Eric Davis is a seasoned visionary in the realm of go-to-market strategy. Eric is renowned for his expertise in tech companies in Silicon Valley. His most distinguished accomplishment lies in his role at Prodigy Software, where he led revenue generation and masterminded the strategic blueprint from the company’s inception to its $100 million acquisition by Upstart Holdings.
Beyond his tenure at Prodigy, Eric has continued to contribute to the tech landscape by actively investing in and advising numerous companies at the forefront of introducing new technology into the tech industry, including cutting-edge AI tech. Eric’s understanding of AI and the intricacies of go-to-market strategies brought him the opportunity to work within the underserved realm of Texas politics.
