Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leads Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke among likely voters, 49%-42%, according to a new Univ. of Houston/Texas Southern Univ. poll. Abbott’s lead climbs to 12 points among “almost certain voters,” continuing a trend we’ve observed in polls of Democratic challengers losing ground as the likelihood of voting increases. Abbott also clears 50% among “almost certain voters” (53%-41%).

Among “likely voters,” Abbott leads O’Rourke among independents, 47%-25%, with 23% undecided. Abbott leads among Anglo voters (61%-32%), older voters (61%-33%), voters with a high school or less education (58%-37%), men (55%-37%), voters with a 2-year degree or some college (51%-38%) and Gen X voters (51%-40%). O’Rourke leads among Black voters (72%-15%), Millennials (55%-34%), Gen Z voters (54%-31%) and Hispanic/Latino voters (53%-38%). They are tied among women, 45%-45%, and O’Rourke has a 47%-44% lead among voters with a 4-year degree or more, well within that subsample’s margin of error.

Nearly identical to Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) leads Democratic challenger Mike Collier, 49%-43%, among “likely voters.” His lead increases to 53%-42% among “almost certain voters.” The demographic splits are for the most part within a point or two of the Abbott-O’Rourke numbers. Patrick’s lead among independents (45%-28%) is a bit narrower than Abbott’s advantage.

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