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Recently Posted News & Analysis
Lagging Early Voting Pushes Down Our Turnout Estimate
Early voting continues through Fri. for the November 8 general election.
Just south of 3M Texans have voted early in person (92%) or by mail (8%) statewide through yesterday (Sun.), the seventh day of the early voting period. Just over one out of every six registered voters (RVs) has already cast a ballot – down 11 percentage points from the same period two years ago.
Statewide, the number of voters through seven days is down 37% from 2020. We don’t typically like to compare mid-term election turnout to presidential election turnout, but 2020 is the only other year for which statewide daily data is available. What may be more interesting here is the percent decline in the number of voters from the prior election year is more in line with mid-term elections between 1998 and 2014 (36% average decline from preceding presidential election) than 2018 (7% decline).
We previously estimated turnout between 9.5M and 10.25M, corresponding to a 9%-16% drop from 2020. At this point, we are revising our estimated turnout downward to 8.5M to 9.25M voters, which would represent a decrease of 18%-25% from 2020. Even at 8.5M, the number of voters casting ballots would set a mid-term record, eclipsing the 8.37M votes cast in 2018, but turnout as a percentage of RVs would be lower. If 8.5M votes were cast, turnout would be 48% of RVs, down from 53% in 2018.
Looking at the 30 counties with the most RVs, the number of votes cast so far this year (2.36M) is 21% lower than through the first seven days of early voting in 2018 and 38% lower than in 2020. In the five counties with the most RVs – Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar and Travis – the number of voters so far is 23% below 2018 and 40% below 2020.
Looking at the remaining 224 counties, the number of votes cast is down 33% from 2020 – a smaller percentage decrease than the Top 5 (40%) and the next 25 (36%).
More than three quarters of all early voters to date have cast ballots in at least one of the last four primary elections, according to the latest analysis by Republican strategist and data nerd Derek Ryan. Around 385K more Republican primary voters have already cast ballots than Democratic primary voters. There remain around 460K more Republican primary voters than Democratic primary voters who have not yet voted.
So far, more than 70% of early voters have been aged 50 years or older. More than a third of voters over 70 have already voted, as have roughly a quarter of voters aged 50-69. Voters under 30 have cast 7% of early votes so far, and just 6% of them have already voted.
None of the preceding turnout data should be viewed as favorable for the Democratic slate’s chances statewide.
GOV (Likely R): Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leads Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke (D), 50%-44%, among likely voters, according to a new Univ. of Texas at Tyler poll.
More than three quarters of likely voters participated in the Republican (42%) or Democratic (35%) primary election this year, and voting blocs that tend to support Abbott more than O’Rourke expressed higher certainty of voting:
- 79% of Republicans said they were “certain” to vote or have already voted compared to 73% of Democrats and 65% of independents
- 83% of respondents over age 45 said they were certain to vote or have already voted compared to 59% of respondents under 45
- 79% of White respondents said they were “certain” to vote or have already voted compared to 69% of Black respondents and 67% of Hispanic/Latino respondents.
Under 10% of voters said they were “not sure” if they would vote (4%), probably would not vote (3%) or definitely would not vote (2%). Early voting numbers to date suggest a much higher percentage will not vote.
The poll of 1,330 registered voters (RVs) – 973 “certain to vote” voters – was conducted by phone and online and was in the field Oct. 17-24. It has a ±3.4% margin of error for the “certain to vote” sample.
LTGOV (Lean R): That UT-Tyler poll finds Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) leading Mike Collier (D), 44%-35%, among likely voters.
AG (Lean R): Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R) leads Rochelle Garza (D), 42%-38%, according to the new UT-Tyler poll. Independents broke for Garza, 47%-33%, but are less likely to vote than Republicans (77%-6% for Paxton) or Democrats (78%-6% for Garza).
Libertarian nominee Mark Ash has retracted his op-ed in which he unequivocally endorsed Democratic challenger Rochelle Garza. “Not voting or voting for me may not be enough” to defeat Paxton, he wrote in the now retracted op-ed in the Amarillo Pioneer. “I am recommending Rochelle Garza for Attorney General as the better candidate in this race.” An archived web page of this op-ed remains online.
Campaign Finance: Statewide and legislative candidates facing general election opposition are required to file 8-day-out campaign finance reports today (Mon.). These reports will disclose contributions received and expenditures made between Sept. 30 and Oct. 29. These reports are expected to become available online tomorrow (Tues.), and we will update our Crib Sheets throughout the day.
As of yesterday (Sun.), those candidates must report contributions over and above $1,890 received from a single source through Nov. 7 via daily pre-election reports. Congressional candidates are already within their 24-hour reporting period.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
Turnout, Congressional Fundraising Well Below 2020 Levels
Early voting continues for the November 8 general election.
Just over 1.6M Texans have voted early in person (1.4M) or by mail (200K) through yesterday (Wed.), the third day of the early voting period, according to preliminary numbers reported by counties to the Secretary of State. Just over 9.1% of registered voters (RVs) have already cast ballots.
Turnout – both in terms of number of votes cast and percent of RVs – continues to lag behind the last two even-year general elections. Statewide, the total number of votes cast so far in 2022 is down more than 1M (39%) from two years ago. As a percent of RVs, the 9.1% turnout is down from 15.7% through three days of early voting in 2020. Note: We don’t typically like to compare mid-term election turnout to presidential election turnout, but 2020 is the only other year for which statewide daily data is available.
Looking at the 30 counties with the most RVs, just over 1.2M people have voted early so far, a drop of 23% compared to 2018 and 42% compared to 2020. Looking at the five counties with the most RVs – Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar and Travis – the number of voters so far this year is down 22% compared to 2018 and 42% compared to 2020.
Recent primary voters account for 80% of all early votes cast so far, according to Republican strategist and data nerd Derek Ryan. Republican primary voters, including the small percentage who have also voted in a recent Democratic primary but most recently voted Republican, comprise 47% of early voters so far. Democratic primary voters, including the reverse of the small percentage mentioned above, represent 33% of early voters. Based solely on these percentages at solely this moment in time, statewide Democrats would need the support of roughly 90% of all other early voters to be ahead at this moment.
According to Ryan, 3M Republican primary voters and 2.4M Democratic primary have not yet cast ballots. He defines those voters as having participated in at least one of the last four primary elections. Looking at age groups, 22% of RVs aged 70 and older have already voted compared to just 2% of RVs under age 30.
AG (Lean R): Libertarian nominee Mark Ash endorsed Democratic challenger Rochelle Garza in their race against Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R) in an op-ed published by the Amarillo Pioneer.
Campaign Finance: Congressional candidates on the November 8 ballot were required to file their pre-general election reports today (Thur.), assuming they have crossed the reporting thresholds. These reports disclose contributions received and expenditures made October 1-19.
Over the 19-day period, candidates reported raising $4.7M and spending $8.0M. Both figures are significantly lower than the same period in 2020. Excluding the U.S. Senate race, congressional candidates two years ago raised $8.7M and spent $21.6M.
Candidates in just three races accounted for $1.8M (39%) of contributions and $3.7M (46%) of expenditures:
- CD15 (Lean R): Democrat Michelle Vallejo out-raised Monica De la Cruz-Hernandez, $374K to $337K, but the Republican narrowly outspent her, $521K to $516K. De la Cruz-Hernandez has a $589K to $158K advantage in cash on hand.
- CD28 (Lean D): Republican challenger Cassy Garcia out-raised U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), $331K to $94K, but was outspent by the incumbent, $646K to $526K. Cuellar holds a $278K to $189K advantage in cash on hand.
- CD34 (Lean D): S. Rep. Mayra Flores (R-Los Indios) out-raised U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen), $535K to $176K, and outspent him, $966K to $504K. Gonzalez has a $475K to $364K advantage in cash on hand.
U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Houston) raised $302K, nearly $290K more than his Democratic challenger in a Safe R district. Crenshaw has raised $14.8M during this election cycle, nearly $9M more than any congressional candidate on the general election ballot, but still a bit behind U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R) $17.3M in contributions. Cruz is up for re-election in 2024. Neither fundraising haul has led to big war chests as Crenshaw has spent $14.4M and Cruz has spent $18.6M during this two-year election cycle.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
Early Voting Turnout Lagging Farther Behind Than We First Thought
Early voting continues for the November 8 general election.
Turnout: Early voting counts are preliminary, unofficial and subject to revision, especially during the first couple of days. Well, the Day One numbers have been revised significantly downward.
Yesterday we reported that 789K voters statewide in person or by mail on Monday. The latest data indicates the number was 630K. It appears the cumulative number of returned mail ballots was added twice to the number of in person voters for each county.
This means that Day One turnout has decreased from 2020 and 2018 even more than we reported yesterday. Rather than revisit those figures here, we’ll move on to Day Two’s (Tues.) counts.
Statewide, 1.13M people have cast ballots in person (952K) or by mail (177K). Through Day Two in 2020, 1.9M people had voted in person (1.49M) or by mail (417K). So the statewide figures are down 41% overall with in person voters down 36% and absentee voters down 58%. Statewide, 6.32% of registered voters have already cast ballots, compared to 11.22% through Day Two of 2020. The better comparison might be to 2018, but only the 30 counties with the most RVs were required to report daily figures that year.
Looking at those Top 30* counties, 875K people have voted early through Day 2, down 25% from 2018 and 42% from 2020. In the five most populous counties – Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar and Travis – a total of 429K people have voted already, down 28% from 2018 and 46% from 2020.
Voter Registration Litigation: The federal Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals upheld new voter registration requirements, overturning a lower court decision setting aside the law for creating an unconstitutional burden on the right to register to vote. The three-judge panel ruled the plaintiffs, LULAC and Voto Latino, lacked standing because they had not been harmed by the law.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
Day 1 Early Voting Totals Lag Behind 2018, 2020
Early voting continues for the November 8 general election. Just under 4.5% of registered voters have cast ballots in person or by mail through yesterday (Mon.), the first day of early voting by personal appearance.
A total of 789K voters have already cast ballots statewide based on preliminary, unofficial counts provided by counties to the Secretary of State. Several counties have not reported, and others have not reported mail ballots, so we expect the number to be revised upward, but probably not by a large amount. The first-day total for 2020 was 1.13M. Comparable figures are not available for 2018 because only the 30 counties with the most RVs were required to provide daily updates that year.
As it currently stands, the Day 1 total number of voters for those 30 counties is down 13% from the first day of early voting in 2018 and 32% from 2020. In the five counties with the most RVs – Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar and Travis – the total number of voters is down 17% from 2018 and 38% from 2020. Harris Co. itself is down 40% – almost entirely due to a 52% decrease in the number of in-person voters.
Roughly five out of every six early voters have recent primary voting history, according to a preliminary analysis of voter history by Republican strategist and data nerd Derek Ryan:
- 46% voted in at least one of the last four Republican primaries, but no Democratic ones
- 31% voted in at least one of the last four Democratic primaries, but no Republican ones; and
- 5% voted in at least one of each party’s last four primaries.
About 14% voted in at least one of the last four general elections but no primaries, and just 3% have no recent voting history. These latter two blocs of voters tend to become more prominent as we get closer to Election Day.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
Polls Show Steady Republican Leads as Early Voting Begins
Early voting is underway for the November 8 general election.
Harris Co. reported nearly 61K people voted in person today (Mon.), down slightly from the first day of 2018. The number of mail ballots returned is also down by around 9K. Bexar Co. reported 32K people voted today, a slight increase from the first day in 2018. Lubbock Co. reported nearly 6K people voted today, down 38% from the first day in 2018, but the weather may have been a factor.
GOV (Likely R): Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leads Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke by 10 points, 52%-42%, according to a new Emerson College poll conducted for The Hill, and by 9 points, 52%-43%, according to a new Siena College Poll conducted for Spectrum News.
- Independents: Abbott 50%-38% (Emerson), Abbott 49%-44% (Siena)
- Men: Abbott 59%-36% (Emerson), Abbott 58%-37% (Siena)
- Women: O’Rourke 48%-45% (Emerson), O’Rourke 51%-45% (Siena)
- Whites: Abbott 63%-32% (Emerson), Abbott 63%-33% (Siena)
- Hispanics/Latinos: O’Rourke 50%-43% (Emerson), O’Rourke 51%-42% (Siena)
- Young voters: O’Rourke 45%-39% (Emerson, 18-34), O’Rourke 50%-45% (Siena, 18-49)
- Seniors: Abbott 53%-42% (Emerson, 65+), Abbott 60%-36% (Siena, 65+)
The Emerson poll found the gender gap applied to President Biden’s approval rating. He was underwater for both, but much more so for men (33/63) than women (45/49). A similar gap applied to Abbott’s rating except he fared better among men (60/37, 40/27 “very”) than women (50/46, 31/41 “very”). And so too with O’Rourke with men (37/59, 23/55 “very”) and women (51/44, 38/39 “very”).
An interesting aspect of these numbers is the relative proportion to “very unfavorable” compared to “somewhat unfavorable.” Just 4% of respondents had a somewhat unfavorable view of O’Rourke, and just 7% viewed Abbott somewhat unfavorably.
Combined with measures of how certain voters are in their choices found in other recent polls, these polls continue to add to the narrative that north of 90% of voters are locked into choices made months ago, driven by purely partisan leanings.
LTGOV (Lean R): The Emerson poll found Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) leading Mike Collier, 47%-42%. The Siena poll has Patrick leading Collier, 49%-41%.
AG (Lean R): The Emerson poll found Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R) leading Rochelle Garza, 47%-42%. The Siena poll has Paxton leading Garza, 48%-42%.
Harris County: A new Univ. of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll finds Republican challenger Alexandra del Moral Mealer leading County Judge Lina Hidalgo (D), 47%-45%.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
New Polls Peg Abbott’s Lead at 11, 8 and 2 Percentage Points
Early voting by personal appearance begins tomorrow (Mon.) for the November 8 general election.
GOV (Likely R): Three newly released polls have very different views of the governor’s race. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leads Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke, 54%-43%, according to the latest Univ. of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll. Civiqs finds Abbott leading O’Rourke, 52%-44%. A new Beacon Research poll conducted for the Democratic Policy Institute finds Abbott leading O’Rourke, 46%-44%, which is within its margin of error.
Abbott has consistently led by high single digits in nearly every recent poll. The current UT/TPP poll shows the largest lead for Abbott since the April UT/TPP poll, in which he led 48%-37% (An outlier poll in June had Abbott up 18 points.).
- UT/TTP: Abbott leads O’Rourke, 60%-29%, among independents; 64%-32% among White voters; 61%-39% among voters aged 65 and older; and 59%-38% among men. Hispanics/Latinos are evenly split, 48%-48%, and Abbott has a slight lead among women, 49%-47%. O’Rourke leads 86%-11% among Black voters, 51%-43% among voters under 30 and 50%-43% among voters aged 30-44.
- Civiqs: Abbott leads 48%-44% among independents, 61%-36% among White voters, 61%-38% among voters aged 65 and older and 60%-37% among men. O’Rourke has a slight 48%-46% lead among Hispanics/Latinos and 50%-47% among women. O’Rourke leads 80%-20% among Black voters, 50%-41% among voters under 35. Abbott leads, 53%-44%, among voters aged 35 to 49.
- Beacon: Crosstabs were not provided, and the polling memo does not provide much information beyond independents favoring O’Rourke, 47%-41%. So, we cannot evaluate how their splits differed from the other two polls.
As noted above, the Beacon poll was conducted for, and released by, the Democratic Policy Institute.
Only UT/TPP polled other statewide races. It found:
- Gov. Dan Patrick (R) leads Mike Collier (D), 51%-36%
- Gen. Ken Paxton (R) leads Rochelle Garza (D), 51%-37%
- Comptroller Glenn Hegar (R) leads Janet Dudding (D), 47%-35%
- Agriculture Comm. Sid Miller (R) leads Susan Hays (D), 51%-39%; and
- Dawn Buckingham (R-Lakeway) leads Jay Kleberg (D), 47%-35%, for LAND open.
Minor party candidates and “someone else” tended to get more support as familiarity with the candidates decreased.
AG (Lean R): A new poll conducted for the Democratic Attorneys General Assoc. shows Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R) leading Democratic challenger Rochelle Garza, 48%-46%. Libertarian Mark Ash receives the other 6% in the poll, which would be an unusually high number for a race with two major party candidates.
The one-page polling memo doesn’t say much else. The poll of 879 registered voters was in the field October 12-16 and was conducted with live calls to mobile phones and landlines, SMS texting and an online panel. Its stated margin of error is ±3.24%, which means the candidates are within the margin of error of each other. The sample was “weighted to reflect a likely 2022 Texas general electorate,” but no details were provided as to their assumptions about the electorate.
Polls have shown this to be among the closest of the statewide races, which in part is why we rate it Lean R instead of the Likely R attached to every other state race except LTGOV (Lean R), and it is unsurprising a poll commissioned for and released by a Democratic organization would show the race as closer than other polls, though within their respective margins of error.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
Turnout Projections Point to Around 10M Voters
Early voting by personal appearance begins Monday for the November 8 general election. Absentee voting is already underway. As of yesterday (Mon.), at least 65K mail ballots had been returned.
Turnout Projections: In a call with reporters, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) said he expected turnout for the general election to exceed 10M voters, which is consistent with independent projections from Republican strategist and data nerd Derek Ryan (around 10.2M) and our own projections of 9.5M to 10.25M.
[https://twitter.com/longhornderek/status/1582433624023920640]
Our numbers would represent a decrease of 9%-16% from the total number of voters in 2020 – a bigger percentage decline than 2018 relative to 2016, but a much smaller percentage decline than the historical average of a 34% decrease since 1990. The number of voters in 2018 declined by 7% relative to the number who voted in 2016. In 2020, a total of 11.3M people cast a ballot for a certified presidential candidate, a new record for the state. A 7% decline would result in 10.5M voters.
If 10M Texans cast ballots for governor, then turnout would be 57% of registered voters and 52% of the voting-eligible population. These would represent the highest such figures for a mid-term election since at least 1980. For reference, 2016 turnout was 67% of registered voters and 60% of the voting-eligible population.
GOV (Likely R): The campaign of Gov. Greg Abbott (R) released a new ad, “Stacy,” featuring the story of a mother of a murdered son.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
South Texas Races Draw Most Congressional Campaign Cash
Congressional candidates on the general election ballot raised $19M and spent nearly $16M during the third quarter, according to October quarterly reports that were due today (Sat.). The total represents a more than $24M drop from the same period in 2020, even after excluding the U.S. Senate race (another $21M) and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz ($2.3M).
The biggest difference between 2020 and 2022 is the relative lack of competitive seats. Fourteen candidates raised at least $1M during the third quarter of 2020, while just six candidates topped the million mark this quarter:
- CD28 (Lean D) – Challenger Cassy Garcia (R) raised $1.66M
- CD34 (Lean D) – U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores (R-Los Indios) raised $1.58M
- CD38 (Safe R) – Wesley Hunt (R) raised $1.12M
- CD8 (Safe R) – Morgan Luttrell (R) raised $1.05M
- CD6 (Safe R) – U.S. Rep. Jake Ellzey (R-Waxahachie), who is unopposed, raised $1.04M; and
- CD15 (Lean R) – Monica De la Cruz-Hernandez (R) raised $1.01M.
Cruz raised $1.46M and would have landed third on this list were he on the ballot this year. He is up for re-election in 2024.
More than a third of all dollars raised during the quarter went to candidates running for three South Texas seats: CD15, CD28 and CD34.
CD15 open (Lean R): Monica De la Cruz-Hernandez (R) out-raised Michelle Vallejo, $1.0M to $857K, and outspent her, $787K to $715K. De la Cruz-Hernandez has a $772K to $301K advantage in cash on hand.
CD28 (Lean D): Republican challenger Cassy Garcia out-raised U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), $1.66M to $983K, and outspent him, $1.5M to $382K. The incumbent has an $836K to $384K advantage in cash on hand.
CD34 (Lean D): U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores (R-Los Indios) out-raised U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen), $1.6M to $497K, but was outspent $1.1M to $893K. Gonzalez has a narrow edge in cash on hand, $820K to $799K.
CD15 open (Lean R): Monica De la Cruz-Hernandez (R) out-raised Michelle Vallejo, $1.0M to $857K, and outspent her, $787K to $715K. De la Cruz-Hernandez has a $772K to $301K advantage in cash on hand.
CD23 (Likely R): U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) out-raised John Lira (D), $514K to $115K, and outspent him, $612K to $139K. Gonzales has a nearly $1.2M advantage in cash on hand.
CD28 (Lean D): Republican challenger Cassy Garcia out-raised U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), $1.66M to $983K, and outspent him, $1.5M to $382K. The incumbent has an $836K to $384K advantage in cash on hand.
CD34 (Lean D): U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores (R-Los Indios) out-raised U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen), $1.6M to $497K, but was outspent $1.1M to $893K. Gonzalez has a narrow edge in cash on hand, $820K to $799K.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
Abbott, O’Rourke Dominate 30-day-out Fundraising Results
The governor’s race towers above all others when it comes to raising and spending money this election season. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and challenger Beto O’Rourke (D) accounted for a staggering 70% of all contributions received and 76% of all expenditures made by statewide and legislative candidates facing general election opposition. Adding Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) and his challenger Mike Collier (D) to those totals brings them to 75% and 88%, respectively.
Legislative candidates facing opposition accounted for less than $1 out of every $6 raised and $1 out of every $20 spent between July 1 and September 29.
Statewide and legislative candidates who are contested in the general election were required to file their 30-day-out campaign finance reports yesterday (Tues.). Overall, those candidates reported raising $72M and spending $111M. Those figures do not include any contributions given to or expenditures made by uncontested candidates, and several candidates’ reports were not yet available.
Republicans raised $38.0M and spent nearly $71.7M, while Democrats raised nearly $33.6M and spent $38.9M.
As a group, Democratic statewide candidates raised $29.7M, nearly as much as the Republican incumbents and candidates’ $30.7M total, but the Republican nearly doubled the Democrats’ spending, $67.5M to $34.0M. Republican legislative candidates out-raised the Democrats, $7.3M to $3.9M. Democratic legislative candidates, buoyed by Senate candidate Morgan LaMantia, outspent the Republicans, $4.9M to $4.2M.
Our Crib Sheets are fully updated with the latest numbers.
GOV (Likely R): Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke narrowly out-raised Gov. Greg Abbott (R) for the second consecutive reporting period. O’Rourke raised $25.2M, barely eclipsing Abbott’s $24.9M haul. For the calendar year, O’Rourke has out-raised Abbott, $57.1M to $55.1M, but Abbott holds an overall $92.7M to $66.1M advantage over the election cycle.
Abbott outspent O’Rourke, $52.5M to $31.6M, for the period. So far this year, Abbott has doubled up O’Rourke’s spending, $82.5M to $41.1M. Over the two-year election cycle, Abbott has outspent O’Rourke, $115M to $48M.
For the first time this cycle, O’Rourke has an advantage in cash on hand over Abbott, albeit a miniscule one. O’Rourke reported having $16.5M on hand as of September 29, barely above Abbott’s $16.4M figure. It is the first time Abbott has reported less cash on hand than his opponent or presumptive opponent since candidates were first required to report it in 2005, and it is the smallest cash on hand figure Abbott has reported since January 2015.
Abbott’s campaign by itself accounted for 65% of total contributions received by contested Republican candidates and 73% of their spending. O’Rourke’s campaign by itself accounted for 75% of total contributions received by contested Democratic candidates and 81% of their spending.
So far, O’Rourke has raised $66.1M for his gubernatorial campaign. During the 2017-18 election cycle, he raised a total of $79.1M for his unsuccessful challenge of U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R). That figure exceeded Abbott’s $44.3M in contributions during the same two-year period for his re-election campaign against Lupe Valdez (D). During that two-year period, O’Rourke spent $71.6M – nearly $30M more than Cruz – and Abbott spent $61.2M, which was nearly $60M more than Valdez.
LTGOV (Lean R): Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) out-raised Democratic challenger Mike Collier, $2.3M to $1.4M, and outspent him nearly 12-to-1 ($12.4M to $1.0M). Over the election cycle, Patrick has out-raised Collier, $16.5M to $4.3M, and outspent him, $19.3M to $3.4M. Patrick has $16.8M on hand – more than either Abbott or O’Rourke – to dwarf Collier’s $923K war chest. Patrick has more than double the cash on hand as for the same period in 2018.
AG (Lean R): Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R) out-raised Democratic challenger Rochelle Garza, $2.1M to $1.6M, and outspent her, $808K to $475K. He has a $4.9M to $1.5M advantage in cash on hand. For the election cycle, Paxton has out-raised Garza, $10.3M to $2.7M.
Other Statewides (Likely R): Democrats running for three statewide executive offices out-raised the Republican incumbents or candidates:
- LAND: Jay Kleberg out-raised Sen. Dawn Buckingham, $878K to $565K
- AGRIC: Susan Hays out-raised Comm. Sid Miller, $112K to $48K; and
- RRC: Luke Warford out-raised Comm. Wayne Christian, $379K to $125K.
Both Democratic challengers for the Court of Criminal Appeals out-raised the Republican incumbents, but the total amount raised by all four of them was under $35K.
All three Supreme Court incumbents out-raised their Democratic challengers, as did Comp. Glenn Hegar (R), who now as $8.5M on hand.
SD27 open (Lean D): Republican Adam Hinojosa out-raised Democratic nominee Morgan LaMantia, $185K to $141K, for the period, but she outspent him, $1.3M to $79K. LaMantia added an additional $1.5M in loans, bringing her total loan balance to nearly $4.5M. She has a $185K to $48K advantage in cash on hand.
If one were to exclude this race from the totals, the remaining Senators and Senate candidates in contested races raised a combined total of $2.2M and spent $2.4M.
HD34 (Lean D): Rep. Abel Herrero (D-Robstown) out-raised Carolyn Vaughn, $138K to $46K, but was narrowly outspent by the challenger, $140K to $134K. Herrero holds a $198K to $84K cash on hand advantage.
HD37 open (Toss Up): Republican nominee Janie Lopez out-raised Democratic rival Luis Villarreal Jr. by a nearly 11-to-1 margin, $441K to $40K, but he narrowly outspent her, $40K to $35K. Because of this large fundraising gap this period, we have changed the rating of this race to Toss Up from Lean D.
HD52 open (Lean R): Republican Caroline Harris out-raised Luis Echegaray (D), $114K to $7K, and outspent him, $38K to $9K. She holds a $46K to $8K cash on hand advantage.
HD70 open (Lean D): Republican nominee Jamee Jolly out-raised Democratic rival Mihaela Plesa, $412K to $202K, and narrowly outspent her, $104K to $96K. Plesa holds an $82K to $39K advantage in cash on hand. Jolly’s largest contributors for the period were Speaker Dade Phelan’s campaign ($135K), Associated Republicans of Texas PAC ($95K), Republican State Leadership Cmte. Grassroots PAC ($71K), Texas Assoc. of Realtors TREPAC ($25K), Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC ($15K) and Texas Medical Assoc. TEXPAC ($12.5K). Plesa’s largest contributors were Texas House Democratic Campaign Committee PAC ($37K), Lone Star Project ($15K), Fair Shot Texas PAC ($10K), AFSCME People PAC ($10K) and Plano accountant Mary Hayden ($10K)
HD74 (Toss Up): Rep. Eddie Morales Jr. (D-Eagle Pass) narrowly out-raised Republican challenger Kathleen Parker, $86K to $81K, but she narrowly outspent him, $43K to $37K. The incumbent holds a $137K to $31K cash on hand advantage.
HD118 (Toss Up): Rep. John Lujan (R-San Antonio) raised $582K and spent $14K. He has $111K on hand. Democratic challenger Frank Ramirez’s report was not yet available.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
Abbott, O’Rourke Each Announce Raising Around $25M
Today (Tues.) is the deadline for statewide and legislative candidates with general election opposition to file their 30-day-out campaign finance reports. These reports disclose contributions received, expenditures made and loans taken out between July 1 and September 29. We expect these reports to become available online tomorrow (Wed.), and we will begin updating our Crib Sheets at that time.
Based on these reports, we may adjust some race ratings accordingly.
GOV (Likely R): The Beto O’Rourke (D) campaign said he raised $25M between July 1 and September 29, while Gov. Greg Abbott’s (R) campaign said he raised nearly $25M. O’Rourke raised $27.6M during the preceding period, which ran from late February to the end of June, edging out Gov. Greg Abbott’s (R) $24.9M in contributions. Neither campaign released cash on hand figures, but Abbott entered the current fundraising period with a $46.0M to $23.9M advantage.
LTGOV (Lean R): Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick’s (R) campaign announced he raised $2.2M during the current fundraising period, which is very close to the $2.3M he raised between the primary and the end of June. The campaign did not release a cash on hand figure, but Patrick entered the period with a record $27.0M on hand.
AG (Lean R): Democratic challenger Rochelle Garza’s campaign released a new ad, “Briefcases,” highlighting her promise to protect Texans’ rights.
The National Border Patrol Council endorsed Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R). The group previously endorsed Paxton’s primary challenger, Land Comm. George P. Bush (R).
LAND (Likely R): Jay Kleberg’s (D) campaign released a new ad, “Trust,” focusing on veterans’ issues.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
National Dems Canceling Ad Reservations for CD15
Tomorrow (Tues.) is the deadline to register for the November 8 general election. Early voting by personal appearance begins Oct. 24. Absentee voting is already underway.
CD15 open (Lean R): Axios’s Josh Kraushaar reported the House Majority PAC is planning to cancel scheduled ad reservations that would have supported Democratic nominee Michelle Vallejo. He added that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is not providing any additional support. Last week, we moved the district to Lean R from Toss Up.
Former President Trump carried the district, 51%-48%, as did Sen. John Cornyn (R), 51%-46%, but Democratic candidates split the other statewide races.
Voter Fraud: During a Fox News Channel appearance yesterday (Sun.), Secretary of State John Scott listed numerous steps his office and county election officials are taking to ensure the integrity of election results. Scott said people can “absolutely” have faith in the country’s elections. Asked what he would say to people who do not believe him, Scott said, “There are those who are misinformed, and they’re going to hold on to their foundations no matter what.”
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
New Race Ratings for 10 Contested Seats, 23 with No or Little Opposition
Up to this point, our race ratings have been based on each district’s partisan lean in the last two election cycles while ignoring the candidates seeking those districts. That’s why Rep. Tracy King’s (D-Batesville) district has been consistently rated a Toss Up even though he drew no opponents.
Our latest model run incorporates longer-term partisan trends for the 219 redrawn legislative and congressional districts and accounts for significant campaign finance disparities. We have also moved to Safe status any seats where a major party candidate is either unopposed or facing solely minor party, independent or write-in opponents.
The model run moved 10 contested seats, four toward Republicans and six toward Democrats, and 23 seats not contested by both major parties.
How We Calculate Partisan Lean
We rate seats using on a seven-point scale from Safe Republican to Safe Democrat based on our formulas for calculating how much redder or bluer a district is than the state as a whole. We plug our best guess estimate for the average statewide Democratic candidate, measured head-to-head against the Republican candidate, then “float” the districts above or below that percentage based on past history, recent voting trends, campaign finance numbers and, in a typical year, the incumbent’s tendency to over- or under-perform their party’s candidates. At this point, we have chosen not to use the incumbent’s past performance because districts have been redrawn, and their past performance may not apply to their new constituents.
As a starting point, we’re projecting a 7.6-point margin between Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke (52.8%-45.2%), reflecting the general trend in recent polls showing a high single-digit lead for Abbott with increasing margins as the certainty of voting increases. We anticipate another tight grouping of statewide candidates and estimate O’Rourke outperforms the average of his fellow statewide Democratic candidates by around a quarter-point, yielding a statewide average of 45.85% measured head-to-head against their Republican opponents.
We then weight the relative changes in partisan lean of the districts as they are now configured from 2018 to 2020 (70% weight), 2016 to 2018 (25% weight) and 2012 to 2016 (5% weight). We then take 75% of this adjusted score and add it to the 2020 partisan lean score to estimate the ongoing shift in the district’s electorate since then. We then add adjustments for relative campaign finance advantages and in a couple of special cases added an incumbent performance advantage or disadvantage.
The formula then provides, for each district, an expected deviation from the statewide partisan lean, regardless of where that mean lean occurs. Adding that figure to the statewide Democratic estimate (45.85% for now) delivers an expected head-to-head vote percentage of the Democratic candidate in each race. Those scores lead to an objective rating from Safe Republican (37.49% or less) to Safe Democrat (62.5% or more).
Results of the Model Run
The following ratings changes arose completely from our model:
- HD23 open (Leo-Wilson) Likely R à Safe R
- HD31 (Guillen) Likely R à Safe R
- HD33 (Holland) Safe R à Likely R
- HD63 open (Bumgarner) Likely R à Lean R
- HD70 open (Plesa) Toss Up à Lean D
- HD121 (Allison) Likely R à Lean R
- HD133 open (DeAyala) Likely R à Lean R
- CD5 (Gooden) Safe R à Likely R
- CD15 open (De la Cruz-Hernandez) Toss Up à Lean R
- CD23 (Gonzales) Lean R à Likely R
Four seats – three in South Texas – shifted toward Republicans, and six seats shifted toward Democrats.
Another 19 seats shifted to Safe R from Likely R because no Democrat is seeking those seats, and four seats shifted to Safe D from Likely D because no Republican is seeking them. The biggest shift in any direction is HD80, which moved from Toss Up to Safe D because no one ran against Rep. Tracy King (D-Batesville).
As it now stands, 86 legislative and congressional seats are rated Safe R, and 62 are rated Safe D. Combined, 61% of Senate seats, 69% of House seats and 68% of congressional seats are now rated as Safe. Another 35 seats are rated Likely R, and 20 are rated Likely D. In total, 203 of the 219 legislative and congressional seats – 93% percent – on the ballot are rated Safe (68%) or Likely (25%) for their respective parties.
That leaves 14 in the Lean category (6%) – seven for each party – and just two seats rated Toss Up: Democrat-held HD74 (Morales) and Republican-held HD118 (Lujan).
As a result, our projections for control of the state House moved to 85-65 Republican, up one Republican seat from the current split but down one seat from our original 86-64 projection. The difference is the move of HD70 open to Lean D from Toss Up. Our projections for the state Senate (19-12 R) and congressional delegation (25-13 R) remain unchanged.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
2024 Runoff Election
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Laura Carr
Co-Founder & Head of Business Development TXLege AI & Owner TXElects
Laura Carr began her political career in Washington, D.C., working in various policy and communication roles for legislative offices in both the House and Senate on Capitol Hill. Laura later worked in fundraising at The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and No Labels—a bipartisan nonprofit dedicated to finding common-ground solutions.
Laura returned to the Lone Star State, where she served in the Office of the Texas Governor, later making a notable impact as the Government Relations Director at The Brannan Firm. Most recently, Laura was Policy Director specializing in technology policy in the Texas Senate.
Laura earned her Bachelor’s degree in Political Science from the University of Alabama. As Head of Business Development for Texas Election Source, Laura acts as a liaison between new and previous customers.
Jeff Blaylock
TXElects Founder & Senior Editor
Jeff Blaylock offers more than 25 years of political analysis, campaign, government, and advocacy experience, Jeff is a noted expert on Texas elections and the legislative process. He served the Texas House of Representatives as a Chief Committee Clerk for the powerful State Affairs Committee and the Financial Institutions Committee. During his time in the Capitol, Jeff became a legislative process and rules expert. No point of order was ever sustained against the committees’ legislation under his leadership. Jeff served as a policy and budget analyst for the White House’s Office of Management and Budget and the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. He served in various management roles in numerous political campaigns across the country.
He began offering his election insights and predictions to his public affairs clients in 2005. He published Texas Election Source for nearly a decade and returns now as Senior Editor. Jeff understands public policy and the ways issues can resonate in elections. As managing director at the respected public affairs firm Public Strategies (now Hill+Knowlton Strategies), he advised clients on legislative strategies, public affairs, strategic and crisis communication, and brand reputation.
Jeff earned a Bachelor’s degree in journalism with a political science minor from Texas Christian University and a Master’s in public policy from Georgetown University. Jeff is currently the VP of Client Services at Kith, a crisis management consulting firm.
Eric Davis
Co-Founder & CEO TXLege AI & Owner TXElects
Eric Davis is a seasoned visionary in the realm of go-to-market strategy. Eric is renowned for his expertise in tech companies in Silicon Valley. His most distinguished accomplishment lies in his role at Prodigy Software, where he led revenue generation and masterminded the strategic blueprint from the company’s inception to its $100 million acquisition by Upstart Holdings.
Beyond his tenure at Prodigy, Eric has continued to contribute to the tech landscape by actively investing in and advising numerous companies at the forefront of introducing new technology into the tech industry, including cutting-edge AI tech. Eric’s understanding of AI and the intricacies of go-to-market strategies brought him the opportunity to work within the underserved realm of Texas politics.
