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Recently Posted News & Analysis
Early Voting Ends on Positive Note
Early voting has ended for Tuesday’s general election.
Turnout continues to be below 2018 levels overall, but it showed signs of gaining ground over the past couple of days. For the first time this year, the number of early voters exceeded the same day in 2018 in the 15 counties with the most registered voters (RVs) on Wednesday and Thursday.
The cumulative number of votes cast in these counties through 10 days is down 13% – about 500K fewer – than in 2018. It is down 32% – roughly 1.5M voters – from 2020. Both of those percentages have decreased over the past couple of days.
Statewide, more than 4.75M Texans have voted in person or by mail through yesterday (Thur.), a turnout so far of 26.9%. As of this point in 2020, 6.9M Texans had already voted, a turnout of 407.5%. Only the 30 counties with the most RVs were required to report daily totals in 2018, so there is no comparable statewide figure.
Looking at the 30 counties with the most RVs, 3.8M votes have been cast so far, a decrease of 13% from the same point in 2018 and 31% from 2020. In the five counties with the most RVs – Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar and Travis – the number of votes cast is down 16% compared to 2018 and 33% compared to 2020.
In Harris Co., the total number of voters casting ballots early is down 15% from this point in 2018. Turnout is down more in Black- (19%) and Hispanic/Latino-majority (20%) zip codes than in White-majority (5%) zip codes, according to our analysis of turnout data compiled by Harris County Clerk Hector De Leon.
TargetSmart, a Democratic data firm, has been tracking early voting turnout by district. It models partisan affiliation of voters based on their own formulas. According to their modeling, here are the partisan predictions of voters for competitive districts:
- SD27 (Toss Up): 53% Democrat, 31% Republican
- HD34 (Toss Up): 57% Democrat, 30% Republican
- HD35 (Lean D): 68% Democrat, 17% Republican
- HD37 open (Lean R): 48% Democrat, 35% Republican
- HD41 (Lean D): 56% Democrat, 26% Republican
- HD70 open (Toss Up): 46% Democrat, 36% Republican
- HD74 (Lean R): 53% Democrat, 31% Republican
- HD118 (Lean R): 43% Democrat, 38% Republican
- CD15 open (Likely R): 49% Democrat, 36% Republican
- CD28 (Toss Up): 51% Democrat, 31% Republican; and
- CD34 (Toss Up): 61% Democrat, 23% Republican.
The remainder for each district is “unaffiliated” according to their model.
Early voting continues to be dominated by primary voters. According to Republican strategist and data nerd Derek Ryan’s latest analysis, more than 70% of early voters have most recently voted in a Republican primary (42%) or a Democratic primary (29%). General election voters have cast 23% of ballots so far, and voters with no recent history have cast 5% of ballots.
As it has been in recent election cycles, turnout percentages are increase with the frequency of past voting. Ryan looked at the past four primary election cycles and found:
- 81% of people who voted in each of the last four Democratic primaries and 76% who voted in each of the last four Republican primaries have already voted
- 67% of Democrats and 66% of Republicans who voted in three of the past four primaries have already voted
- 55% of Democrats and 56% of Republicans who voted in two of the past four primaries have already voted
- 38% of Democrats and 41% of Republicans who voted in one of the past four primaries have already voted
- 18% of people who have not voted in any of the past four primaries but have voted in at least one of the past four general elections have already voted; and
- 5% of people who are registered to vote but have not voted in any of the past four primary or general elections have already voted.
As we have often said, voting begets voting.
Absentee Ballots: Of the 175K mail ballots that have been processed (not counted) so far, the rejection rate has been 1.78%, according to the Secretary of State. This is above the 2020 general election rejection rate of 1% but well below the 12.4% – one out of every eight – rejection rate for the March primary election. Of the rejected ballots in March, 58% were Democratic primary voters and 42% were Republican primary voters.
House Speaker: Rep. Tony Tinderholt (R-Arlington) filed to challenge Speaker Dade Phelan (R-Beaumont).
Early Voting Turnout May Foretell Trouble for O’Rourke
Early voting concludes Friday for the November 8 general election.
Through yesterday (Tue.), the ninth day of the early voting period, 3.8M Texans have voted early in person (93%) or by mail (7%), corresponding to 21.5% of registered voters (RVs).
As of this point two years ago, an additional 2.1M people had already voted statewide. Compared to the same period in 2020, the total number of voters is down 35%. This percent decline in the number of voters from the immediately preceding presidential election year is more in line with mid-term elections between 1998 and 2014 (36% average decline from preceding presidential election) than 2018 (7% decline). Note: We don’t typically like to compare mid-term election turnout to presidential election turnout, but 2020 is the only other year for which statewide daily data is available.
The number of votes cast in the 30 counties with the most RVs is down 19% from this point in 2018 and 36% from 2020. The number of votes cast in the five counties with the most RVs – Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar and Travis – is down 22% from 2018 and 38% from 2020. The number of RVs in those five counties has increased by 9% since 2018. Percent turnout in those five counties stands at 20.9%, a decrease of 8.6 percentage points from 2018.
Among the 10 counties with the most RVs, turnout is down most sharply in El Paso Co., home of Democratic gubernatorial nominee Beto O’Rourke. Compared to 2018, the number of votes already cast in El Paso Co. is down 38%. As of yesterday, turnout percentage there was 13.1% of RVs. At the same point in 2018, when O’Rourke was challenging U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R), turnout percentage was 23.5%.
Compared to 2018, the number of votes cast in Dallas Co. is down 31%, Harris Co. is down 22% and Travis Co. is down 21%. O’Rourke received 67%, 58% and 75% of the vote in those counties head-to-head against Cruz.
Looking statewide, the counties with the highest turnout percentage so far are Terrell (38.3%), Blanco (34.8%), Llano (34.4%), Jeff Davis (33.9%), Mason (31.1%), Bandera (31.0%), Kendall (30.7%), Loving (30.3%), Washington (30.2%), Foard (30.1%), Schleicher (30.1%), Comal (29.9%), Gillespie (29.9%) and Kerr (29.9%) Cos.
The counties with the lowest turnout percentage so far are Hudspeth (5.9%), Knox (7.7%), Parmer (8.0%), Lynn (8.4%), La Salle (10.1%), Jones (10.4%), Zavala (10.6%), Lamb (11.4%), Ector (11.6%), Crosby (11.7%), Dallam (11.8%), Cochran (12.0%), Winkler (12.2%), Lipscomb (12.4%), Bailey (12.6%) and El Paso (13.1%) Cos. Many of the state’s smaller counties operate a single early voting location, so it is often easier for to vote on Election Day there.
In 2018, nearly 40% of registered voters had cast ballots by the end of the early voting period. To reach that figure this year, 3.5M more Texans would need to vote by Friday. That’s almost the number of Texans who have already voted in nine days plus absentee ballots received prior to the early voting period.
As of this point in 2018, 64% of the early vote had already come in, leaving 36% to come in over the last three days. If those percentages hold for 2022, then around 2.1M votes will come in by Friday, bringing the 12-day total to just south of 7M early voters.
Looking at the 3.8M who have already turned out to vote, three out of four of them have recent primary election voting history, and nearly 500K more of those last voted in Republican primary than in a Democratic primary. Republican strategist and data nerd Derek Ryan’s latest analysis indicates primary voters represent a larger share of the early voting electorate than in 2018.
At this point in 2018, 32% of early voters in the top 15 counties had participated in at least one of the last four Republican primaries and the last primary they voted in was Republican. Democratic primary voters comprised just under 30% of early voters. General election-only voters represented 29% – nearly equal to each party – and “new” voters had cast 10% of votes to date.
According to Ryan, 43% of votes cast so far this year have been by Republican primary voters, 31% by Democratic voters (roughly the same as in 2018), 21% are general election-only voters are 4% are “new” voters, which means they have no history voting in the past four prior election cycles. While not an apples-to-apples comparison, it appears general election-only and “new” voters have been replaced by, or transformed into, Republican primary voters.
Voters under 30 have cast roughly one out of every 14 early votes so far in 2022. They cast roughly one out of every six votes in 2020 and one out of every eight in 2018. According to exit polling data, O’Rourke got 70% support from voters under 30 in his race against Cruz (measured head-to-head).
As we’ve previously opined, these turnout figures are not good for O’Rourke or other Democrats at the macro level. While we expect Election Day voting to rebound from a historically low level in 2020, we do not expect to see an overwhelming crush of O’Rourke voters.
Based on early turnout so far, O’Rourke could need around or just north of two thirds of Election Day voters to break his way, according to our rough back o’ the envelope calculations breaking out voters by age and voting history (Both estimates were within a point of each other.).
In 2018, about a quarter of all voters cast ballots on Election Day. If the 7M early vote figure we floated a few paragraphs above holds, and the 2018 Election Day voting share holds, then about 1.75M Texans would vote on Election Day. This would bring the overall vote total to around 8.75M, within but toward the lower end of our current turnout projection of 8.5M to 9.25M.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
Abbott, O’Rourke Empty Wallets As Republicans Dominate Down Ballot
Statewide and legislative candidates facing general election opposition reported raising $47M and spending north of $72M during the monthlong period covered by the latest campaign finance reports. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke’s campaigns received 41% of those contributions and made 62% of those expenditures.
The candidates’ 8-day-out reports disclose contributions received and expenditures made between Sept. 30 and Oct. 29. They were due yesterday (Mon.) and became available online today (Tues.). Some remain unavailable, but they will add minimally to the totals reported above. Our Crib Sheets have been updated to show the latest numbers. We have also made our final adjustments to our race ratings, moving 30 races toward the Republicans based in part off these fundraising numbers.
Overall, contributions this period are down 14% compared to the same period in 2020, but the governor’s race and, to a much lesser extent, the LTGOV race skew the comparison. Excluding those two races, contributions are down 57% and expenditures are down 39% from two years ago. One factor is the governor’s race taking a lot of the oxygen out of the room, but the other driving force is a dramatic decrease in competitive House races after redistricting.
In 2020, House Republican candidates raised $27.3M and spent $11.7M during the period covered by their 8-day-out reports. This year, they raised $10.8M and spent $4.2M, representing decreases of 60% and 64%, respectively. House Democratic candidates raised $16.4M and spent $14.1M in 2020. This year, they raised $2.9M and spent $2.5M, declines of 82% from each figure in 2020.
Senate numbers are up slightly from 2020, but all 31 seats are on the ballot this year.
Statewide
GOV (Likely R): O’Rourke out-raised Abbott, $10.5M to $8.8M, and outspent him, $24.4M to $20.8M. Both candidates largely emptied their gas tanks. O’Rourke has $4.25M on hand, edging out Abbott’s $3.77M. It is the smallest cash on hand figure Abbott has reported as an executive branch elected official, barely beneath the $3.78M he reported in July 2005. Candidates were not required to report cash on hand prior to that date.
O’Rourke has out-raised Abbott, $67.6M to $63.9M, for the calendar year, but Abbott has the advantage over the two-year election cycle, $101.5M to $76.6M. Abbott has raised $140.8M since the beginning of 2019, an amount exceeding the total he raised between January 2011 and December 2018 ($135.8M). As governor, Abbott has raised $218.2M, nearly double the amount raised by former Gov. Rick Perry (R) during his gubernatorial tenure (excluding his presidential campaign).
O’Rourke is closing in on the $79M he raised for his 2018 U.S. Senate campaign for the most ever raised by a Democratic candidate in Texas for a statewide race. Abbott’s total for this two-year cycle was already the most in state history. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) raised more than $90M during a two-year period for his presidential campaign, but that was a nationwide contest and thus we exclude it from statewide campaigns.
This year’s gubernatorial contest is the most expensive in state history. Combined, Abbott and O’Rourke have raised more than $178M during the 2021-22 election cycle, easily surpassing the $113M in combined contributions for the 2018 U.S. Senate race between O’Rourke and Cruz and more than doubling the combined contribution totals from the 2014 gubernatorial race between Abbott and former Sen. Wendy Davis ($88M) and the 2002 race between Perry and Tony Sanchez ($83M).
LTGOV (Lean R > Likely R): Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) out-raised Democratic challenger Mike Collier, $3.3M to $713K, and outspent him, $5.1M to $1.5M. Patrick still has more than $16.5M on hand, suggesting confidence in his polling margin. Collier has $128K on hand.
AG (Lean R): Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R) out-raised Democratic challenger Rochelle Garza, $2.4M to $1.1M, and outspent her, $4.9M to $2.3M. Paxton has a 10-to-1 advantage in cash on hand, $2.9M to $285K.
Paxton disclosed a $750K loan from Defend Texas Liberty PAC but did not itemize any contributions. His five-page report includes this memo: “Totals are estimated and will be itemized.” His campaign has repeatedly failed to itemize contributions on reports by their respective due dates, and it appears to be the only campaign at the state or legislative level that experiences such regular difficulty with the filing system.
- He filed a corrected January semiannual report nearly two weeks after the due date to itemize more than $2.1M in contributions
- He filed a corrected 8-day-out report before the primary a day after it was due to itemize $913K in contributions. Three days later, he filed a corrected 8-day-out report to itemize an additional $1.8M in expenditures not previously reported (or included in the totals).
- He filed a corrected July semiannual report itemizing $341K in contributions and $1.3M in expenditures two days after it was due. He initially reported more than $3.6M in unitemized contributions and $5.4M in unitemized expenditures for the period.
Defend Texas Liberty PAC’s report indicates it contributed $300K to Paxton’s campaign during the period covered by the 8-day-out reports. This is in addition to the $750K loan Paxton’s report disclosed.
LAND open (Likely R): Jay Kleberg (D) out-raised Sen. Dawn Buckingham (R-Lakeway), $626K to $581K, and outspent her, $1.4M to $696K. Buckingham has a $501K to $127K advantage in cash on hand.
RRC (Likely R): Democratic challenger Luke Warford out-raised Comm. Wayne Christian (R), $202K to $88K, and outspent him, $309K to $21K. Christian holds a $312K to $206K advantage in cash on hand but appears content to let political affiliation guide his electoral success.
Senate
SD27 open (Lean D > Toss Up): Republican Adam Hinojosa out-raised Democrat Morgan LaMantia, $662K to $136K. He was outspent, $630K to $218K, but $530K of his contributions were in kind. Hinojosa’s largest contributors for the period were Associated Republicans of Texas PAC ($229K), Houston Regional Business Coalition ($200K), Protect and Serve PAC ($51K), Dallas hotelier Monty Bennett ($50K) and Texans for Responsible Government PAC ($50K). LaMantia’s largest contributors were Texas Assoc. of Realtors TREPAC ($42K) and Texas Trial Lawyers Assoc. PAC ($25K). LaMantia added $550K to her loan balance, which stands at just over $5M.
House
HD34 (Lean D > Toss Up): Rep. Abel Herrero (D-Robstown) out-raised Carolyn Vaughn, $124K to $56K, but was narrowly outspent by the challenger, $147K to $142K. She has narrowly outspent the incumbent, $287K to $276K, since July 1.
HD35 (Likely D > Lean D): Rep. Oscar Longoria (D-Mission) out-raised challenger Oscar Rosa, $91K to $60K, but was outspent, $103K to $62K. Longoria has $308K on hand – a high figure for an incumbent in a potentially competitive race.
HD37 open (Toss Up > Lean R): Republican Janie Lopez out-raised Democrat Luis Villarreal Jr., $735K to $57K. Her campaign outspent his, $67K to $54K, and $644K on her contributions were in kind. Lopez’s largest contributors were Associated Republicans of Texas PAC ($304K), Republican State Leadership Committee Grassroots Account ($150K), Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC ($90K), Texans for Responsible Government PAC ($50K), Protect and Serve Texas PAC ($38K), Texas House Republican Caucus PAC ($20K) and House Speaker Dade Phelan’s campaign ($10K).
HD52 open (Lean R > Likely R): Republican Caroline Harris out-raised Luis Echegaray (D), $601K to $8K, and outspent him, $127K to $7K. She has a $146K to $9K advantage in cash on hand.
HD61 open (Likely R): Republican Frederick Frazier out-raised Sheena King (D), $189K to $24K, and outspent her, $89K to $21K, suggesting recent media stories raising questions about his job performance as a police officer have had no impact on the race.
HD63 open (Lean R > Likely R): Republican Ben Bumgarner out-raised Denise Wooten (D), $218K to $5K, and outspent her, $54K to $3K.
HD70 open (Lean D > Toss Up): Republican Jamee Jolly out-raised Mihaela Plesa (D), $1.4M to $221K. Plesa nominally outspent Jolly, $120K to $80K, but more than $1.2M of Jolly’s contributions were in kind. Jolly’s leading contributors for the period were Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC ($331K), Associated Republicans of Texas PAC ($325K), Republican State Leadership Committee Grassroots Account ($253K), Speaker Dade Phelan’s campaign ($242K), Texas Assoc. of Realtors TREPAC ($75K), Protect and Serve Texas PAC ($43K), Texans for Responsible Government PAC ($40K) and Texas House Republican Caucus ($20K).
HD74 (Toss Up > Lean R): Republican challenger Katherine Parker out-raised Rep. Eddie Morales Jr. (D-Eagle Pass), $669K to $65K. Morales outspent her, $68K to $33K, but $637K of her contributions were in kind. Parker’s top contributors were Associated Republicans of Texas PAC ($302K), Republican State Leadership Committee Grassroots Account ($235K) and Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC ($115K).
HD112 (Lean R > Likely R): Rep. Angie Chen Button (R-Garland) out-raised Democratic challenger Elva Curl, $427K to $77K, and outspent her, $452K to $81K.
HD118 (Toss Up > Lean R): Rep. John Lujan (R-San Antonio) out-raised Democratic challenger Frank Ramirez, $1.2M to $239K, and nominally outspent him, $140K to $126K. More than $970K of Lujan’s contributions were in kind.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
30 Races Shift Toward Republicans in Our Final Ratings
Our final update to our 2022 race ratings shifts 30 races toward the Republicans and none toward the Democrats.
Based on lagging turnout, especially in areas and among demographics key to Democratic successes in 2018 and on a significant Republican financial advantage to close out the campaign cycle, we have downgraded the Democrats’ expected statewide performance. We have also adjusted the model to throttle back slightly on blue-ward movements in many suburban districts while slightly accelerating red-ward movements in South Texas districts.
In many ways, we are seeing patterns that remind us of 2010. The main difference is, there are far fewer competitive or marginal seats for Democrats to lose this year than in 2010, which was a wipeout election, especially in the Texas House.
As it stands, we now project Republicans to sweep statewide races, gain one seat in the Senate, gain a net four seats in the House and gain a net two seats in the U.S. House delegation.
Statewide Rating Change
- LTGOV (Patrick): Lean R to Likely R
Senate Rating Changes
- SD15 (Whitmire): Safe D to Likely D
- SD17 (Huffman): Likely R to Safe R
- SD18 (Kolkhorst): Likely R to Safe R
- SD19 (Gutierrez): Likely D to Lean D
- SD25 (Campbell): Likely R to Safe R
- SD27 open (LaMantia): Lean D to Toss Up
House Rating Changes
- HD33 (Holland): Likely R to Safe R
- HD34 (Herrero): Lean D to Toss Up
- HD35 (Longoria): Likely D to Lean D
- HD37 open (Lopez): Toss Up to Lean R
- HD41 (Guerra): Likely D to Lean D
- HD42 (Raymond): Safe D to Likely D
- HD52 open (Harris): Lean R to Likely R
- HD54 (Buckley): Lean R to Likely R
- HD63 open (Bumgarner): Lean R to Likely R
- HD70 open (Jolly): Lean D to Toss Up
- HD74 (Morales): Toss Up to Lean R
- HD99 (Geren): Likely R to Safe R
- HD102 (Ramos): Safe D to Likely D
- HD112 (Button): Lean R to Likely R
- HD118 (Lujan): Toss Up to Lean R
- HD121 (Allison): Lean R to Likely R
- HD133 open (DeAyala): Lean R to Likely R
Congress Rating Changes
- CD5 (Gooden): Likely R to Safe R
- CD10 (McCaul): Likely R to Safe R
- CD15 open (De la Cruz-Hernandez): Lean R to Likely R
- CD27 (Cloud): Likely R to Safe R
- CD28 (Cuellar): Lean D to Toss Up
- CD34 (Gonzalez): Lean D to Toss Up
There will be no further updates to our race ratings this cycle.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
Lagging Early Voting Pushes Down Our Turnout Estimate
Early voting continues through Fri. for the November 8 general election.
Just south of 3M Texans have voted early in person (92%) or by mail (8%) statewide through yesterday (Sun.), the seventh day of the early voting period. Just over one out of every six registered voters (RVs) has already cast a ballot – down 11 percentage points from the same period two years ago.
Statewide, the number of voters through seven days is down 37% from 2020. We don’t typically like to compare mid-term election turnout to presidential election turnout, but 2020 is the only other year for which statewide daily data is available. What may be more interesting here is the percent decline in the number of voters from the prior election year is more in line with mid-term elections between 1998 and 2014 (36% average decline from preceding presidential election) than 2018 (7% decline).
We previously estimated turnout between 9.5M and 10.25M, corresponding to a 9%-16% drop from 2020. At this point, we are revising our estimated turnout downward to 8.5M to 9.25M voters, which would represent a decrease of 18%-25% from 2020. Even at 8.5M, the number of voters casting ballots would set a mid-term record, eclipsing the 8.37M votes cast in 2018, but turnout as a percentage of RVs would be lower. If 8.5M votes were cast, turnout would be 48% of RVs, down from 53% in 2018.
Looking at the 30 counties with the most RVs, the number of votes cast so far this year (2.36M) is 21% lower than through the first seven days of early voting in 2018 and 38% lower than in 2020. In the five counties with the most RVs – Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar and Travis – the number of voters so far is 23% below 2018 and 40% below 2020.
Looking at the remaining 224 counties, the number of votes cast is down 33% from 2020 – a smaller percentage decrease than the Top 5 (40%) and the next 25 (36%).
More than three quarters of all early voters to date have cast ballots in at least one of the last four primary elections, according to the latest analysis by Republican strategist and data nerd Derek Ryan. Around 385K more Republican primary voters have already cast ballots than Democratic primary voters. There remain around 460K more Republican primary voters than Democratic primary voters who have not yet voted.
So far, more than 70% of early voters have been aged 50 years or older. More than a third of voters over 70 have already voted, as have roughly a quarter of voters aged 50-69. Voters under 30 have cast 7% of early votes so far, and just 6% of them have already voted.
None of the preceding turnout data should be viewed as favorable for the Democratic slate’s chances statewide.
GOV (Likely R): Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leads Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke (D), 50%-44%, among likely voters, according to a new Univ. of Texas at Tyler poll.
More than three quarters of likely voters participated in the Republican (42%) or Democratic (35%) primary election this year, and voting blocs that tend to support Abbott more than O’Rourke expressed higher certainty of voting:
- 79% of Republicans said they were “certain” to vote or have already voted compared to 73% of Democrats and 65% of independents
- 83% of respondents over age 45 said they were certain to vote or have already voted compared to 59% of respondents under 45
- 79% of White respondents said they were “certain” to vote or have already voted compared to 69% of Black respondents and 67% of Hispanic/Latino respondents.
Under 10% of voters said they were “not sure” if they would vote (4%), probably would not vote (3%) or definitely would not vote (2%). Early voting numbers to date suggest a much higher percentage will not vote.
The poll of 1,330 registered voters (RVs) – 973 “certain to vote” voters – was conducted by phone and online and was in the field Oct. 17-24. It has a ±3.4% margin of error for the “certain to vote” sample.
LTGOV (Lean R): That UT-Tyler poll finds Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) leading Mike Collier (D), 44%-35%, among likely voters.
AG (Lean R): Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R) leads Rochelle Garza (D), 42%-38%, according to the new UT-Tyler poll. Independents broke for Garza, 47%-33%, but are less likely to vote than Republicans (77%-6% for Paxton) or Democrats (78%-6% for Garza).
Libertarian nominee Mark Ash has retracted his op-ed in which he unequivocally endorsed Democratic challenger Rochelle Garza. “Not voting or voting for me may not be enough” to defeat Paxton, he wrote in the now retracted op-ed in the Amarillo Pioneer. “I am recommending Rochelle Garza for Attorney General as the better candidate in this race.” An archived web page of this op-ed remains online.
Campaign Finance: Statewide and legislative candidates facing general election opposition are required to file 8-day-out campaign finance reports today (Mon.). These reports will disclose contributions received and expenditures made between Sept. 30 and Oct. 29. These reports are expected to become available online tomorrow (Tues.), and we will update our Crib Sheets throughout the day.
As of yesterday (Sun.), those candidates must report contributions over and above $1,890 received from a single source through Nov. 7 via daily pre-election reports. Congressional candidates are already within their 24-hour reporting period.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
Turnout, Congressional Fundraising Well Below 2020 Levels
Early voting continues for the November 8 general election.
Just over 1.6M Texans have voted early in person (1.4M) or by mail (200K) through yesterday (Wed.), the third day of the early voting period, according to preliminary numbers reported by counties to the Secretary of State. Just over 9.1% of registered voters (RVs) have already cast ballots.
Turnout – both in terms of number of votes cast and percent of RVs – continues to lag behind the last two even-year general elections. Statewide, the total number of votes cast so far in 2022 is down more than 1M (39%) from two years ago. As a percent of RVs, the 9.1% turnout is down from 15.7% through three days of early voting in 2020. Note: We don’t typically like to compare mid-term election turnout to presidential election turnout, but 2020 is the only other year for which statewide daily data is available.
Looking at the 30 counties with the most RVs, just over 1.2M people have voted early so far, a drop of 23% compared to 2018 and 42% compared to 2020. Looking at the five counties with the most RVs – Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar and Travis – the number of voters so far this year is down 22% compared to 2018 and 42% compared to 2020.
Recent primary voters account for 80% of all early votes cast so far, according to Republican strategist and data nerd Derek Ryan. Republican primary voters, including the small percentage who have also voted in a recent Democratic primary but most recently voted Republican, comprise 47% of early voters so far. Democratic primary voters, including the reverse of the small percentage mentioned above, represent 33% of early voters. Based solely on these percentages at solely this moment in time, statewide Democrats would need the support of roughly 90% of all other early voters to be ahead at this moment.
According to Ryan, 3M Republican primary voters and 2.4M Democratic primary have not yet cast ballots. He defines those voters as having participated in at least one of the last four primary elections. Looking at age groups, 22% of RVs aged 70 and older have already voted compared to just 2% of RVs under age 30.
AG (Lean R): Libertarian nominee Mark Ash endorsed Democratic challenger Rochelle Garza in their race against Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R) in an op-ed published by the Amarillo Pioneer.
Campaign Finance: Congressional candidates on the November 8 ballot were required to file their pre-general election reports today (Thur.), assuming they have crossed the reporting thresholds. These reports disclose contributions received and expenditures made October 1-19.
Over the 19-day period, candidates reported raising $4.7M and spending $8.0M. Both figures are significantly lower than the same period in 2020. Excluding the U.S. Senate race, congressional candidates two years ago raised $8.7M and spent $21.6M.
Candidates in just three races accounted for $1.8M (39%) of contributions and $3.7M (46%) of expenditures:
- CD15 (Lean R): Democrat Michelle Vallejo out-raised Monica De la Cruz-Hernandez, $374K to $337K, but the Republican narrowly outspent her, $521K to $516K. De la Cruz-Hernandez has a $589K to $158K advantage in cash on hand.
- CD28 (Lean D): Republican challenger Cassy Garcia out-raised U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), $331K to $94K, but was outspent by the incumbent, $646K to $526K. Cuellar holds a $278K to $189K advantage in cash on hand.
- CD34 (Lean D): S. Rep. Mayra Flores (R-Los Indios) out-raised U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen), $535K to $176K, and outspent him, $966K to $504K. Gonzalez has a $475K to $364K advantage in cash on hand.
U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Houston) raised $302K, nearly $290K more than his Democratic challenger in a Safe R district. Crenshaw has raised $14.8M during this election cycle, nearly $9M more than any congressional candidate on the general election ballot, but still a bit behind U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R) $17.3M in contributions. Cruz is up for re-election in 2024. Neither fundraising haul has led to big war chests as Crenshaw has spent $14.4M and Cruz has spent $18.6M during this two-year election cycle.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
Early Voting Turnout Lagging Farther Behind Than We First Thought
Early voting continues for the November 8 general election.
Turnout: Early voting counts are preliminary, unofficial and subject to revision, especially during the first couple of days. Well, the Day One numbers have been revised significantly downward.
Yesterday we reported that 789K voters statewide in person or by mail on Monday. The latest data indicates the number was 630K. It appears the cumulative number of returned mail ballots was added twice to the number of in person voters for each county.
This means that Day One turnout has decreased from 2020 and 2018 even more than we reported yesterday. Rather than revisit those figures here, we’ll move on to Day Two’s (Tues.) counts.
Statewide, 1.13M people have cast ballots in person (952K) or by mail (177K). Through Day Two in 2020, 1.9M people had voted in person (1.49M) or by mail (417K). So the statewide figures are down 41% overall with in person voters down 36% and absentee voters down 58%. Statewide, 6.32% of registered voters have already cast ballots, compared to 11.22% through Day Two of 2020. The better comparison might be to 2018, but only the 30 counties with the most RVs were required to report daily figures that year.
Looking at those Top 30* counties, 875K people have voted early through Day 2, down 25% from 2018 and 42% from 2020. In the five most populous counties – Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar and Travis – a total of 429K people have voted already, down 28% from 2018 and 46% from 2020.
Voter Registration Litigation: The federal Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals upheld new voter registration requirements, overturning a lower court decision setting aside the law for creating an unconstitutional burden on the right to register to vote. The three-judge panel ruled the plaintiffs, LULAC and Voto Latino, lacked standing because they had not been harmed by the law.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
Day 1 Early Voting Totals Lag Behind 2018, 2020
Early voting continues for the November 8 general election. Just under 4.5% of registered voters have cast ballots in person or by mail through yesterday (Mon.), the first day of early voting by personal appearance.
A total of 789K voters have already cast ballots statewide based on preliminary, unofficial counts provided by counties to the Secretary of State. Several counties have not reported, and others have not reported mail ballots, so we expect the number to be revised upward, but probably not by a large amount. The first-day total for 2020 was 1.13M. Comparable figures are not available for 2018 because only the 30 counties with the most RVs were required to provide daily updates that year.
As it currently stands, the Day 1 total number of voters for those 30 counties is down 13% from the first day of early voting in 2018 and 32% from 2020. In the five counties with the most RVs – Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar and Travis – the total number of voters is down 17% from 2018 and 38% from 2020. Harris Co. itself is down 40% – almost entirely due to a 52% decrease in the number of in-person voters.
Roughly five out of every six early voters have recent primary voting history, according to a preliminary analysis of voter history by Republican strategist and data nerd Derek Ryan:
- 46% voted in at least one of the last four Republican primaries, but no Democratic ones
- 31% voted in at least one of the last four Democratic primaries, but no Republican ones; and
- 5% voted in at least one of each party’s last four primaries.
About 14% voted in at least one of the last four general elections but no primaries, and just 3% have no recent voting history. These latter two blocs of voters tend to become more prominent as we get closer to Election Day.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
Polls Show Steady Republican Leads as Early Voting Begins
Early voting is underway for the November 8 general election.
Harris Co. reported nearly 61K people voted in person today (Mon.), down slightly from the first day of 2018. The number of mail ballots returned is also down by around 9K. Bexar Co. reported 32K people voted today, a slight increase from the first day in 2018. Lubbock Co. reported nearly 6K people voted today, down 38% from the first day in 2018, but the weather may have been a factor.
GOV (Likely R): Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leads Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke by 10 points, 52%-42%, according to a new Emerson College poll conducted for The Hill, and by 9 points, 52%-43%, according to a new Siena College Poll conducted for Spectrum News.
- Independents: Abbott 50%-38% (Emerson), Abbott 49%-44% (Siena)
- Men: Abbott 59%-36% (Emerson), Abbott 58%-37% (Siena)
- Women: O’Rourke 48%-45% (Emerson), O’Rourke 51%-45% (Siena)
- Whites: Abbott 63%-32% (Emerson), Abbott 63%-33% (Siena)
- Hispanics/Latinos: O’Rourke 50%-43% (Emerson), O’Rourke 51%-42% (Siena)
- Young voters: O’Rourke 45%-39% (Emerson, 18-34), O’Rourke 50%-45% (Siena, 18-49)
- Seniors: Abbott 53%-42% (Emerson, 65+), Abbott 60%-36% (Siena, 65+)
The Emerson poll found the gender gap applied to President Biden’s approval rating. He was underwater for both, but much more so for men (33/63) than women (45/49). A similar gap applied to Abbott’s rating except he fared better among men (60/37, 40/27 “very”) than women (50/46, 31/41 “very”). And so too with O’Rourke with men (37/59, 23/55 “very”) and women (51/44, 38/39 “very”).
An interesting aspect of these numbers is the relative proportion to “very unfavorable” compared to “somewhat unfavorable.” Just 4% of respondents had a somewhat unfavorable view of O’Rourke, and just 7% viewed Abbott somewhat unfavorably.
Combined with measures of how certain voters are in their choices found in other recent polls, these polls continue to add to the narrative that north of 90% of voters are locked into choices made months ago, driven by purely partisan leanings.
LTGOV (Lean R): The Emerson poll found Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) leading Mike Collier, 47%-42%. The Siena poll has Patrick leading Collier, 49%-41%.
AG (Lean R): The Emerson poll found Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R) leading Rochelle Garza, 47%-42%. The Siena poll has Paxton leading Garza, 48%-42%.
Harris County: A new Univ. of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll finds Republican challenger Alexandra del Moral Mealer leading County Judge Lina Hidalgo (D), 47%-45%.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
New Polls Peg Abbott’s Lead at 11, 8 and 2 Percentage Points
Early voting by personal appearance begins tomorrow (Mon.) for the November 8 general election.
GOV (Likely R): Three newly released polls have very different views of the governor’s race. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leads Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke, 54%-43%, according to the latest Univ. of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll. Civiqs finds Abbott leading O’Rourke, 52%-44%. A new Beacon Research poll conducted for the Democratic Policy Institute finds Abbott leading O’Rourke, 46%-44%, which is within its margin of error.
Abbott has consistently led by high single digits in nearly every recent poll. The current UT/TPP poll shows the largest lead for Abbott since the April UT/TPP poll, in which he led 48%-37% (An outlier poll in June had Abbott up 18 points.).
- UT/TTP: Abbott leads O’Rourke, 60%-29%, among independents; 64%-32% among White voters; 61%-39% among voters aged 65 and older; and 59%-38% among men. Hispanics/Latinos are evenly split, 48%-48%, and Abbott has a slight lead among women, 49%-47%. O’Rourke leads 86%-11% among Black voters, 51%-43% among voters under 30 and 50%-43% among voters aged 30-44.
- Civiqs: Abbott leads 48%-44% among independents, 61%-36% among White voters, 61%-38% among voters aged 65 and older and 60%-37% among men. O’Rourke has a slight 48%-46% lead among Hispanics/Latinos and 50%-47% among women. O’Rourke leads 80%-20% among Black voters, 50%-41% among voters under 35. Abbott leads, 53%-44%, among voters aged 35 to 49.
- Beacon: Crosstabs were not provided, and the polling memo does not provide much information beyond independents favoring O’Rourke, 47%-41%. So, we cannot evaluate how their splits differed from the other two polls.
As noted above, the Beacon poll was conducted for, and released by, the Democratic Policy Institute.
Only UT/TPP polled other statewide races. It found:
- Gov. Dan Patrick (R) leads Mike Collier (D), 51%-36%
- Gen. Ken Paxton (R) leads Rochelle Garza (D), 51%-37%
- Comptroller Glenn Hegar (R) leads Janet Dudding (D), 47%-35%
- Agriculture Comm. Sid Miller (R) leads Susan Hays (D), 51%-39%; and
- Dawn Buckingham (R-Lakeway) leads Jay Kleberg (D), 47%-35%, for LAND open.
Minor party candidates and “someone else” tended to get more support as familiarity with the candidates decreased.
AG (Lean R): A new poll conducted for the Democratic Attorneys General Assoc. shows Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R) leading Democratic challenger Rochelle Garza, 48%-46%. Libertarian Mark Ash receives the other 6% in the poll, which would be an unusually high number for a race with two major party candidates.
The one-page polling memo doesn’t say much else. The poll of 879 registered voters was in the field October 12-16 and was conducted with live calls to mobile phones and landlines, SMS texting and an online panel. Its stated margin of error is ±3.24%, which means the candidates are within the margin of error of each other. The sample was “weighted to reflect a likely 2022 Texas general electorate,” but no details were provided as to their assumptions about the electorate.
Polls have shown this to be among the closest of the statewide races, which in part is why we rate it Lean R instead of the Likely R attached to every other state race except LTGOV (Lean R), and it is unsurprising a poll commissioned for and released by a Democratic organization would show the race as closer than other polls, though within their respective margins of error.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
Turnout Projections Point to Around 10M Voters
Early voting by personal appearance begins Monday for the November 8 general election. Absentee voting is already underway. As of yesterday (Mon.), at least 65K mail ballots had been returned.
Turnout Projections: In a call with reporters, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) said he expected turnout for the general election to exceed 10M voters, which is consistent with independent projections from Republican strategist and data nerd Derek Ryan (around 10.2M) and our own projections of 9.5M to 10.25M.
[https://twitter.com/longhornderek/status/1582433624023920640]
Our numbers would represent a decrease of 9%-16% from the total number of voters in 2020 – a bigger percentage decline than 2018 relative to 2016, but a much smaller percentage decline than the historical average of a 34% decrease since 1990. The number of voters in 2018 declined by 7% relative to the number who voted in 2016. In 2020, a total of 11.3M people cast a ballot for a certified presidential candidate, a new record for the state. A 7% decline would result in 10.5M voters.
If 10M Texans cast ballots for governor, then turnout would be 57% of registered voters and 52% of the voting-eligible population. These would represent the highest such figures for a mid-term election since at least 1980. For reference, 2016 turnout was 67% of registered voters and 60% of the voting-eligible population.
GOV (Likely R): The campaign of Gov. Greg Abbott (R) released a new ad, “Stacy,” featuring the story of a mother of a murdered son.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
South Texas Races Draw Most Congressional Campaign Cash
Congressional candidates on the general election ballot raised $19M and spent nearly $16M during the third quarter, according to October quarterly reports that were due today (Sat.). The total represents a more than $24M drop from the same period in 2020, even after excluding the U.S. Senate race (another $21M) and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz ($2.3M).
The biggest difference between 2020 and 2022 is the relative lack of competitive seats. Fourteen candidates raised at least $1M during the third quarter of 2020, while just six candidates topped the million mark this quarter:
- CD28 (Lean D) – Challenger Cassy Garcia (R) raised $1.66M
- CD34 (Lean D) – U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores (R-Los Indios) raised $1.58M
- CD38 (Safe R) – Wesley Hunt (R) raised $1.12M
- CD8 (Safe R) – Morgan Luttrell (R) raised $1.05M
- CD6 (Safe R) – U.S. Rep. Jake Ellzey (R-Waxahachie), who is unopposed, raised $1.04M; and
- CD15 (Lean R) – Monica De la Cruz-Hernandez (R) raised $1.01M.
Cruz raised $1.46M and would have landed third on this list were he on the ballot this year. He is up for re-election in 2024.
More than a third of all dollars raised during the quarter went to candidates running for three South Texas seats: CD15, CD28 and CD34.
CD15 open (Lean R): Monica De la Cruz-Hernandez (R) out-raised Michelle Vallejo, $1.0M to $857K, and outspent her, $787K to $715K. De la Cruz-Hernandez has a $772K to $301K advantage in cash on hand.
CD28 (Lean D): Republican challenger Cassy Garcia out-raised U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), $1.66M to $983K, and outspent him, $1.5M to $382K. The incumbent has an $836K to $384K advantage in cash on hand.
CD34 (Lean D): U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores (R-Los Indios) out-raised U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen), $1.6M to $497K, but was outspent $1.1M to $893K. Gonzalez has a narrow edge in cash on hand, $820K to $799K.
CD15 open (Lean R): Monica De la Cruz-Hernandez (R) out-raised Michelle Vallejo, $1.0M to $857K, and outspent her, $787K to $715K. De la Cruz-Hernandez has a $772K to $301K advantage in cash on hand.
CD23 (Likely R): U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) out-raised John Lira (D), $514K to $115K, and outspent him, $612K to $139K. Gonzales has a nearly $1.2M advantage in cash on hand.
CD28 (Lean D): Republican challenger Cassy Garcia out-raised U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), $1.66M to $983K, and outspent him, $1.5M to $382K. The incumbent has an $836K to $384K advantage in cash on hand.
CD34 (Lean D): U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores (R-Los Indios) out-raised U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen), $1.6M to $497K, but was outspent $1.1M to $893K. Gonzalez has a narrow edge in cash on hand, $820K to $799K.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
2024 Primary Election
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Laura Carr
Head of Business Development & Co-Owner
Laura Carr began her political career in Washington, D.C., working in various policy and communication roles for legislative offices in both the House and Senate on Capitol Hill. Laura later worked in fundraising at The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and No Labels—a bipartisan nonprofit dedicated to finding common-ground solutions.
Laura returned to the Lone Star State, where she served in the Office of the Texas Governor, later making a notable impact as the Government Relations Director at The Brannan Firm—a prestigious firm ranked at the top of Capitol Inside’s Texas Lobby Power Rankings.
Laura earned her Bachelor’s degree in Political Science from the University of Alabama. Currently, Laura serves as Policy Director specializing in technology policy in the Texas Senate. As Head of Business Development for Texas Election Source, Laura acts as a liaison between new and previous customers.
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Jeff Blaylock offers more than 25 years of political analysis, campaign, government, and advocacy experience, Jeff is a noted expert on Texas elections and the legislative process. He served the Texas House of Representatives as a Chief Committee Clerk for the powerful State Affairs Committee and the Financial Institutions Committee. During his time in the Capitol, Jeff became a legislative process and rules expert. No point of order was ever sustained against the committees’ legislation under his leadership. Jeff served as a policy and budget analyst for the White House’s Office of Management and Budget and the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. He served in various management roles in numerous political campaigns across the country.
He began offering his election insights and predictions to his public affairs clients in 2005. He published Texas Election Source for nearly a decade and returns now as Senior Editor. Jeff understands public policy and the ways issues can resonate in elections. As managing director at the respected public affairs firm Public Strategies (now Hill+Knowlton Strategies), he advised clients on legislative strategies, public affairs, strategic and crisis communication, and brand reputation.
Jeff earned a Bachelor’s degree in journalism with a political science minor from Texas Christian University and a Master’s in public policy from Georgetown University. Jeff is currently the VP of Client Services at Kith, a crisis management consulting firm.
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CEO & Co-Owner
Eric Davis is a seasoned visionary in the realm of go-to-market strategy. Eric is renowned for his expertise in tech companies in Silicon Valley. His most distinguished accomplishment lies in his role at Prodigy Software, where he led revenue generation and masterminded the strategic blueprint from the company’s inception to its $100 million acquisition by Upstart Holdings.
Beyond his tenure at Prodigy, Eric has continued to contribute to the tech landscape by actively investing in and advising numerous companies at the forefront of introducing new technology into the tech industry, including cutting-edge AI tech. Eric’s understanding of AI and the intricacies of go-to-market strategies brought him the opportunity to work within the underserved realm of Texas politics.
