Gov. Greg Abbott (R) canvassed the statewide results of the 2022 general election yesterday (Mon.). As far as we can tell, no state races flipped from the unofficial election results.
Just over 8.1M Texans cast a vote for a certified gubernatorial candidate, representing 45.9% of registered voters and 42.5% of the estimated voting-eligible population. All three representations of turnout fell short of their comparable 2018 figures (8.4M votes cast, 53.0% of RVs, 46.3% of VEP), but represent the second highest such figures for a midterm election since at least 1982, which is the earliest mid-term for which we have a reliable VEP estimate.
Nearly 11M Texans – including a record 9.6M RVs – who could have voted in this election did not do so. Nearly 4M fewer RVs cast ballots in this election than in the 2020 general election, the largest drop-off in state history (The figure equals a decrease in the number of votes cast and an increase in the number of RVs.).
Final statewide results:
- Abbott (R) defeated Beto O’Rourke (D), 54.8%-43.9%
- Gov. Dan Patrick (R) defeated Mike Collier (D), 53.8%-43.5%
- Gen. Ken Paxton (R) defeated Rochelle Garza (D), 53.4%-43.7%
- Glenn Hegar (R) defeated Janet Dudding (D), 56.4%-40.9%
- Dawn Buckingham (R) won he LAND open race over Jay Kleberg (D), 56.2%-42.2%
- Agriculture Comm. Sid Miller (R) defeated Susan Hays (D), 56.3%-43.7%
- Railroad Comm. Wayne Christian (R) defeated Luke Warford (D), 55.4%-40.5%
- Supreme Court Justices Rebeca Huddle (R), Scott Walker (R) and Evan Young (R) won with 57.1%, 56.9% and 56.4% of the vote, respectively.
- Court of Criminal Appeals Judges Jesse McClure (R) and Scott Walker (R) won with 57.2% and 56.9% of the vote, respectively.
Measured head-to-head, the average statewide Republican candidate received 56.66% of the vote to the average statewide Democrat’s 43.34%. The five judicial races were tightly clustered around their average 57.00% for the Republican and 43.00% for the Democrat. The median statewide races were SC5 (57.1%-42.9%) and CCA5 (56.9%-43.1%) – averaging those yields 57.0% to 43.0%.
Our final projection of the head-to-head average statewide race was 55.87%-44.13%, approximately 0.8 percentage points from the actual result.
In terms of the number of votes received, the top vote-getter was Huddle with 4.53M. Paxton’s 4.28M was the lowest among the 12 contested statewide candidates. The spread between them was 252K votes – 3.1% of all votes cast. The Democratic spread between O’Rourke (3.55M votes) and Warford (3.22M votes) was 331K votes, which is 4.09% of all votes cast. This implies upwards of 95% of voters effectively cast a straight ticket, at least at the statewide level.
El Paso County: 34th Judicial Dist. Atty. Yvonne Rosales (D) has resigned, ending a lengthy legal effort to have her removed from office. Her resignation is effective Dec. 14, the day before a hearing that could have resulted in her temporary suspension pending a jury trial. Rosales’s resignation letter was given to District Judge Tryon Lewis (R) during a status hearing on the case. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will appoint a successor to serve out the two-plus remaining years of Rosales’s unexpired term. The position also serves as the district attorney for Culberson and Hudspeth Cos.
Houston: Sen. John Whitmire (D-Houston) will “kickstart” his mayoral campaign tomorrow (Wed.) at a fundraiser hosted by Tilman Fertitta. Mayor Sylvester Turner is term-limited.