An abbreviated early voting period begins tomorrow (Monday) for the HD10 special election and ends on Friday. August 31 is Election Day. The frontrunners appear to be former Rep. John Wray (R-Waxahachie) and former U.S. Health and Human Services Dept. official Brian Harrison (R). Eight candidates filed, including five Republicans.

If needed, a runoff would likely be among two Republicans, though there is a single Democrat in the race: Ennis immigration attorney Pierina Otiniano. Last month’s CD6 runoff was a race between two Republicans largely because Democratic votes were fractured among multiple candidates. CD6 is considerably more competitive for Democrats than HD10, which was 15 points redder than the state in 2020.

The district is comprised of Ellis Co. and western Henderson Co., with the latter representing just 7% of the votes cast in the 2020 general election in the district. Based on the recently released Census figures, we expect the next iteration of this district will be solely Ellis Co., the population of which is within 1% of an ideal district size. That should be good news for everyone running except Matt Savino, the Libertarian candidate. He resides in Seven Points, which is in Henderson Co.

SD10: Fort Worth attorney and physician Monte Mitchell re-established his campaign committee for a potential challenge of Sen. Beverly Powell (D-Burleson). Mitchell unsuccessfully ran for what was then an open HD95 seat, losing to Nicole Collier, 77%-23%. He unsuccessfully challenged then-Rep. Bill Carter (R-Fort Worth) in the 1998 Republican primary for HD91 (40%) and again in 2000 (45%). Running as M. Mark Mitchell, he lost the 2018 Republican primary for CD6 (5%) and the 2016 general election for CD33 (26%).

SD12 open: Dallas resident Thomas Russell established a campaign committee for a potential run for the seat being vacated by Sen. Jane Nelson (R-Flower Mound). We were unable to identify him conclusively.

HD63 open: Ponder Mayor Matthew Poole established a campaign committee for a potential run for the seat being vacated by Rep. Tan Parker (R-Flower Mound).

CD15: McAllen journalist Frank McCaffrey established a campaign committee for a potential challenge of U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) as a Republican.

Crib Sheet Milestone: We are now tracking more than 500 candidates for Congress, statewide office and the Legislature in Texas. Our Crib Sheets always have the latest lists of candidates who have taken a formal step toward entering a race.

Election Legislation: The House Committee on Constitutional Rights and Remedies postponed its hearing on Senate Bill 1 by Sen. Bryan Hughes (R-Mineola) until tomorrow (Monday). The bill had originally been set for hearing on Saturday.

Though a quorum in the House is not guaranteed, several more Democrats have returned and are expected to rejoin the legislative process. As we mused when it first began, the quorum breakers appeared to have no endgame beyond inspiring the passage of federal voting rights legislation, an iffy proposition. They now face a daunting redistricting process fraught with broken trust, resentment and a Republican majority that may not be interested in what their Democratic colleagues – at least the ones who broke quorum – have to say about the maps.

©2021 Texas Election Source LLC