The Texas Democratic Party announced a new $1.7M voter registration program, Project Texas, which aims to register 2M voters, which would be just about everyone who is eligible but not registered.

The Democratic Party’s announcement included an estimate of 3M eligible Texans who were not registered, of which 2M “are likely to vote Democratic.” The party said more than half of these targeted non-registrants were Hispanic/Latino, about one in five are Black Texans and about a quarter are 25 years old or younger.

Our calculations, which are based on the U.S. Election Project’s estimate of the voting-eligible population, indicated that 1.87M Texans could have registered to vote for the 2020 general election but did not do so. The number of eligible unregistered Texans peaked has fallen in each election cycle since it peaked in 2014.

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There is an even larger group of Texans whose impact on future elections could be even greater: registered voters who do not vote.

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