Texas gained two seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, giving it 38, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, which released state population totals and the results of congressional apportionment today (Monday). This means the winner of Texas in the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections will receive 40 electoral votes.
The state’s population was determined to be 29,183,290 as of April 1, 2020, including a little less than 38K located overseas. That’s an increase of 15.5% – almost 4M people – since the 2010 Census. But that huge growth yielded only two seats, not the three many expected. The 2020 Census counts were about 1% below the most recent population estimates for Texas, indicating either a slight slowing of population growth at the end of the decade or a larger than expected number of uncounted households or individuals. Texas has gained at least one seat in every decennial reapportionment back to the end of the Civil War and has gained at least two seats every decade since 1990.
Only seven seats shifted among the states, the fewest in a century. Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon each gained one seat. California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia each lost one seat.
Minnesota’s 8th district was the last of the 435 apportioned seats. Texas’s potential 39th seat was the third runner-up, trailing New York’s 27th seat and Ohio’s 16th. By our back of the envelope calculations, Texas needed approximately 190K more residents to leapfrog Minnesota for that final seat. Had 89 more people been counted within the state of New York, it would have taken that last seat, maintaining its 27-seat delegation.
It is notable that Minnesota had the highest self-response rate to the Census (75.1%) while Texas ranked 39th (62.8%). Aside from a late $15M advertising campaign, the state did not put significant resources into outreach efforts to promote participation, and Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R) saw “no downside” to a 2018 effort by the Trump Administration to include a citizenship question on the Census. The bureau conceded that as many as 630K households across the country, mostly concentrated in heavily Hispanic/Latino areas, would not respond, and might not be counted, if the citizenship question were added.
The Census Bureau expects to provide states with the data needed to draw new districts by August 15. A more public-friendly format of the data will be available by September 30.
Trump Endorses Wright
Former President Trump endorsed Susan Wright (R) in the CD6 special election over Brian Harrison (R), a former chief of staff for the U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services during the Trump Administration, who has been campaigning on his efforts to enact an “America First” agenda. Trump’s endorsement also ends Dan Rodimer’s (R) claim that he is the only candidate in the race to have ever been endorsed by Trump, who endorsed him in a Nevada congressional race.
Early voting concludes tomorrow (Tuesday) for the May 1 general and special elections.
Dallas: A pair of council incumbents targeted by Mayor Eric Johnson got fundraising boosts when he endorsed their opponents, reported the Dallas Morning News’s Nic Garcia and Everton Bailey Jr. Jaime Resendez raised $22K in the first three days following Johnson’s endorsement, more than Yolanda Faye Williams, whom Johnson endorsed, raised during the past month, according to their latest campaign finance reports. Adam Bazaldua raised $25K – nearly 70% of his total for the month – in the three days following Johnson’s endorsing Donald Parish, who raised $19K during the period. The candidates’ 8-day-out reports disclosed contributions received between March 23 and April 21.
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