Election Day for the primary runoff and special elections is tomorrow (Tuesday). We’ll have live coverage beginning at 7 p.m. CDT. Here are the storylines we’ll be watching as votes are counted.

Incumbents vs. History: Six legislative incumbents were forced into runoffs when a majority of primary voters did not choose them back in March.

  • SD27 (D): Sen. Eddie Lucio Jr. (49.8%) vs. Sara Stapleton Barrera (36%)
  • HD2 (R): Rep. Dan Flynn (45%) vs. Bryan Slaton (36%)
  • HD59 (R): Shelby Slawson (46%) vs. Rep. J.D. Sheffield (30%)
  • HD100 (D): Rep. Lorraine Birabil (29%) vs. Jasmine Crockett (26%)
  • HD142 (D): Rep. Harold Dutton (45%) vs. Jerry Davis (25%)
  • HD148 (D): Rep. Anna Eastman (42%) vs. Penny Morales Shaw (22%)

Since 1996, 28 incumbent legislators have been forced into runoffs, and 23 of them have lost. All five who prevailed finished first in the primary election, and four of those finished at least 17 points ahead of their opponent in the primary election. This year, that would include Dutton and Eastman, who respectively have the third and fourth largest margin in the primary over their runoff opponent in 24 years.

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