CD24 open (Toss Up): A pair of polls indicate a close race but differ widely on how set voters are in their choices.

The Democrat-aligned House Majority PAC released a poll (PDF) showing Candace Valenzuela (D) leading former Irving Mayor Beth Van Duyne (R), 47%-41%, which is within the margin of error. Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden leads President Trump, 49%-44%, in the district.

Three months out, very few “registered voters” were undecided. Just 3% of respondents were unsure about their presidential preference and 8% unsure about their congressional preference. Van Duyne is running slightly behind a generic Republican (43%) well within the margin of error. In 2018, U.S. Rep. Kenny Marchant (R-Coppell) underperformed the average Republican in the district by half a point.

More than a quarter of survey respondents said they were aged 70 and older. Victoria Research and Consulting conducted the poll of 400 “registered voters” with live interviewers via half landlines and half mobile lines from July 31 to August 2. The poll’s stated margin of error is ±4.9%.

The RMG Group’s poll of 500 registered voters (PDF) found the candidates tied, 36%-36%, with more than a quarter of respondents still undecided, significantly higher than the 8% in the Victoria poll. RMG Group conducted the poll for U.S. Term Limits.

Biden leads Trump, 45%-44%, with 9% “not sure,” again higher than Victoria’s finding. Trump’s overall job approval rating was 47/49 (men 53/45, women 41/53). Van Duyne’s favorability rating was 34/16 and Valenzuela’s was 32/22.

The precincts comprising CD24 have been getting steadily friendlier toward Democratic candidates, moving from 3.7 points redder than the state as a whole in 2014 to 1.7 points bluer than the state in 2018. Former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) won the district, 51%-48%, over U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in 2018, and Democratic nominee Justin Nelson edged out Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R), 49%-48%. Donald Trump carried the district by 6 points in 2016.

SD30: The Republican district executive committee for CD4 will meet Saturday to select a nominee to replace former U.S. Rep. John Ratcliffe (R-Heath) on the ballot. If they were to select Sen. Pat Fallon (R-Prosper), and assuming the vacancy that would create occurs on or before August 21, then a special election will be held on November 3 to fill his unexpired term. If the vacancy occurs after August 21, then the likeliest path forward is an expedited special election later in November or in December, with a runoff election in December of January.

Upcoming Deadlines: Over the next few weeks, the ballots for the November 3 general election will be finalized.

  • August 13 – deadline for independent candidates to their application and sufficient signatures
  • August 20 – deadline for write-in candidates must file their declarations along with a filing fee or sufficient signatures
  • August 21 – deadline for a party nominee or independent candidate to withdraw from the general election | last day a candidate’s name may be removed from the ballot | last day a vacancy in office triggers a November 3 special election
  • August 24 – deadline for district executive committees to name replacement nominees
  • August 28 – deadline for Secretary of State and county judges to certify names of candidates on general election ballot.

Round Rock: A unanimous city council voted to punt until next week its decision about when it will conduct its mayoral and council elections. Originally scheduled for May, the election was postponed to November 3. Last month, the council voted to postpone it to May 2021. The legality of that action remains questionable, and Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R) has advised the city that the second postponement is illegal.

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