New Poll First to Show Trump Over 50

The latest KTVT/Dixie Strategies poll shows a double-digit lead for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton for the first time since the August KTVT/DS poll, and it shows Trump over 50% for the first time in any Texas poll. Trump leads Clinton, 52%-39%, with Libertarian Gary Johnson polling at 3%, Green Jill Stein at 0.3% and “another candidate” at 2%. Less than 4% of respondents were undecided.

Trump leads Clinton among men, 54%-35%, and women, 49%-43%. No other breakdown of the vote was provided, and crosstabs were not available.

Prior KTVT/DS polls had the race at Trump 45-38 in early October and 46-35 in August.

Overall, Trump is viewed favorably by 52% of respondents and unfavorably by 45%. His favorability rating is 53/42 among men and 50/47 among women. Clinton is viewed favorably by 39% of respondents and unfavorably by 58% overall. Her favorability rating is 35/62 among men and 43/54 among women. Clinton is viewed “very unfavorably” by 54% of respondents, including 57% of men, 51% of women and 56% of “others” (neither Republicans nor Democrats).

The poll included three other favorability ratings:

• President Obama – 41/57 overall, 37/60 among men, 46/53 among women
• S. Sen. Ted Cruz – 39/58 overall, 35/62 among men, 43/54 among women; and
• Greg Abbott – 60/33 overall, 61/30 among men, 58/35 among women.

Trump’s favorability has improved from 48/49 in the early October KTVT/DS poll, buoyed by a turnaround among women. Since the early October poll, Trump has gone from a net favorability rating of 44/53 (-9) to 50/47 (+3). Clinton’s rating is unchanged from the early October poll.

The poll was in the field Thursday through Sunday, so at least some of the responses occurred after the release of a letter from James Comey, director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, that new evidence had come to light in the Clinton email investigation.

Recent polls have shown a narrowing single-point Trump lead, but all of them were in the field prior to Comey’s letter to Congressional leaders.

The KTVT/Dixie Strategies poll of 980 “likely voters” was conducted by telephone October 27-29. The sample included 383 Republicans, 304 Democrats and 293 others. Its stated margin of error is ±3.13%.