The latest KTVT/Dixie Strategies poll shows a double-digit lead for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton for the first time since the August KTVT/DS poll, and it shows Trump over 50% for the first time in any Texas poll. Trump leads Clinton, 52%-39%, with Libertarian Gary Johnson polling at 3%, Green Jill Stein at 0.3% and “another candidate” at 2%. Less than 4% of respondents were undecided.

Trump leads Clinton among men, 54%-35%, and women, 49%-43%. No other breakdown of the vote was provided, and crosstabs were not available.

Prior KTVT/DS polls had the race at Trump 45-38 in early October and 46-35 in August.

Overall, Trump is viewed favorably by 52% of respondents and unfavorably by 45%. His favorability rating is 53/42 among men and 50/47 among women. Clinton is viewed favorably by 39% of respondents and unfavorably by 58% overall. Her favorability rating is 35/62 among men and 43/54 among women. Clinton is viewed “very unfavorably” by 54% of respondents, including 57% of men, 51% of women and 56% of “others” (neither Republicans nor Democrats).

The poll included three other favorability ratings:

  • President Obama – 41/57 overall, 37/60 among men, 46/53 among women
  • S. Sen. Ted Cruz – 39/58 overall, 35/62 among men, 43/54 among women; and
  • Greg Abbott – 60/33 overall, 61/30 among men, 58/35 among women.

Trump’s favorability has improved from 48/49 in the early October KTVT/DS poll, buoyed by a turnaround among women. Since the early October poll, Trump has gone from a net favorability rating of 44/53 (-9) to 50/47 (+3). Clinton’s rating is unchanged from the early October poll.

The poll was in the field Thursday through Sunday, so at least some of the responses occurred after the release of a letter from James Comey, director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, that new evidence had come to light in the Clinton email investigation.

Recent polls have shown a narrowing single-point Trump lead, but all of them were in the field prior to Comey’s letter to Congressional leaders.

The KTVT/Dixie Strategies poll of 980 “likely voters” was conducted by telephone October 27-29. The sample included 383 Republicans, 304 Democrats and 293 others. Its stated margin of error is ±3.13%.

2016 Presidential Polls of Texas Voters

KTVT/Dixie Strategies: Trump 52, Clinton 39, Johnson 3, Stein <1 (Oct. 2016)
Our Take: New Poll First to Show Trump Over 50

UT/Texas Tribune: Trump 45, Clinton 42, Johnson 7, Stein 2 (Oct. 2016)
Our Take: UT/TT Poll: Trump 45, Clinton 42

Crosswind/AAS: Trump 45, Clinton 38, Johnson 7 (Oct. 2016)
Our Take: Crosswind: Trump by 7

CBS News/YouGov: Trump 46, Clinton 43, Johnson 5, Stein 1 (Oct. 2016)
Our Take: Trump’s Lead Within Margin of Error in YouGov Poll

U of H Hobby School: Trump 41, Clinton 38, Johnson 4, Stein 1 (Oct. 2016)
Our Take: Polls Continue to Show Narrowing Trump Lead in Texas

WFAA/SurveyUSA: Trump 47, Clinton 43, Johnson 3, Stein 1 (Oct. 2016)
Our Take: New Poll Suggests Tightening Presidential Race

KTVT/Dixie Strategies: Trump 45, Clinton 38, Johnson 4, Stein 1 (Oct. 2016)
Our Take: Another Poll Shows Trump with Single-digit Lead

Lyceum: Trump 39, Clinton 32, Johnson 9, Stein 3 (Sept. 2016)
Our take: Lyceum Poll: Trump 39, Clinton 32
Our take: Non-voters More Likely to Identify with Democrats

Emerson: Trump 42, Clinton 36, Johnson 10, Stein 6 (Sept. 2016)
Our take: Another Poll Shows Single-digit Trump Lead

WaPo/SurveyMonkey: Trump 40, Clinton 40, Johnson 11, Stein 3 (Sept. 2016)
Our take: Texas a Toss-up State in New ‘Poll’

Public Policy Polling: Trump 44, Clinton 38, Johnson 6, Stein 2 (Aug. 2016)
Our take: New Poll: Trump 44, Clinton 38 in Texas

KTVT/Dixie Strategies: Trump 46, Clinton 35, “another candidate” 9 (Aug. 2016)
Our take: Polls, Pledges and Gerrymanders: News for August 11

UT/Texas Politics Project: Trump 39, Clinton 32, Johnson 7, “someone else” 14 (June 2016)
Our take: Second Poll Puts Clinton Within 10 of Trump in Texas

Beatty: Trump 37, Clinton 30, Johnson 3 (June 2016)
Our take: Poll: A Third of Texans Undecided for President