Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton, 39%-32%, among “likely voters,” according to a Texas Lyceum poll released today. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is supported by 9% of likely voters, and 3% support Green candidate Jill Stein. Another 14% are undecided. It is the fifth credible poll since June showing a single-digit race, but it is also the fourth credible poll showing the minor party candidates receiving support well above their historical high points.

As we noted yesterday, poll respondents who are not likely to vote in November are more likely to identify as Democrats. The presidential race tightens to a statistical tie when the pool is expanded to registered voters.

Subscribers can read the rest of this report.