Lyceum Poll: Trump 39, Clinton 32

Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton, 39%-32%, among “likely voters,” according to a Texas Lyceum poll released today. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is supported by 9% of likely voters, and 3% support Green candidate Jill Stein. Another 14% are undecided. It is the fifth credible poll since June showing a single-digit race, but it is also the fourth credible poll showing the minor party candidates receiving support well above their historical high points.

As we noted yesterday, poll respondents who are not likely to vote in November are more likely to identify as Democrats. The presidential race tightens to a statistical tie when the pool is expanded to registered voters.

Similar results occur when respondents were asked generic ballot test questions about Congress and the state legislature. The share of the vote received by the Republican candidate increases 9% for the U.S. House and 7% for the state house among likely voters compared to registered voters. The Democratic percentage remains the same.

Consistent with other recent polls, Lyceum finds that Texans on balance dislike both Trump and Clinton. Trump is viewed favorably by 46% and unfavorably by 51% of likely voters (35/62 among all adults). Clinton is viewed favorably by 39% and unfavorably by 58% of likely voters (43/54 among all adults). A majority of likely voters have an “extremely unfavorable” opinion of Clinton, while 44% have a similar opinion of Trump. These results are consistent with recent polls.

This is not the first Lyceum poll to show a close race in September. The 2014 Lyceum poll showed Greg Abbott leading Wendy Davis, 49%-40%, in the race for governor. Abbott won, 59%-39%. Indeed, single-digit Republican leads are fairly common in polls taken before or right around Labor Day.