Texas is a whole lot less competitive state than a year ago.
After the Legislature drew new maps for itself and the Congress, only 13 districts (6%) are rated as “Toss Ups” (4), “Lean Republican” (5) or “Lean Democrat” (4) in our initial Race Ratings for the 2022 general election. There were 38 such districts in our initial 2020 ratings, and that figure excluded six competitive Senate districts that were not on the ballot.
We rate seats based on a seven-point scale from Safe Republican to Safe Democrat based on our formulas for calculating how much redder or bluer a district is than the state as a whole. Our initial ratings are based on the new districts’ partisan lean calculated solely using the 2020 general election results as though the new districts were in effect. We will incorporate recent shifts in the districts’ partisan leans by analyzing election data back to at least 2012 – in some districts as far back as 2002 – to detect longer-term trends. We will eventually incorporate estimates for statewide candidates’ performance, measured head-to-head against the other major party’s nominee, and then “float” the districts above or below that percentage based on past history, recent trends and the incumbent’s tendency to over- or under-perform their party’s candidates. Those calculations will begin after the primary elections. Our initial ratings capture the partisan lean at a single moment of time: November 2020.
Based on these initial ratings, we have projected the partisan makeup of the Legislature and Congressional delegation without any regard to who may be running for any of the offices, with three exceptions which we will note below.
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