A new UT/Texas Tribune poll shows (pdf) Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton, 45%-42%, among likely voters. Libertarian Gary Johnson polled at 7%, which is far above the historical average for a Libertarian candidate in Texas, and Green Jill Stein polled at 2%. “Someone else” polled at 5%.
It seems highly unlikely that Johnson, Stein and “someone else” will combine for 13% of the vote. Trump held a slight lead over Clinton among Johnson and Stein voters as their “second choice,” but an almost equally likely “second choice” would be not to vote at all.
A majority of respondents believe both major party candidates will be a “poor” (Trump 8%, Clinton 6%) or “terrible” president (Clinton 48%, Trump 46%). More Trump supporters say they are motivated to prevent Clinton from becoming president than wanting Trump to become president.
We will have more information on this poll later today.