A Univ. of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump, 43%-34%, among likely Harris Co. voters. Her margin slips to within the statistical margin of error among “extremely likely voters.” Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green candidate Jill Stein combine for around 10% of the vote. About one in eight likely and extremely likely voters are undecided or gave no response.
Barack Obama narrowly won Harris Co. in 2008 (50.4%-48.8%) and 2012 (49.4%-49.3%). No Democratic presidential candidate has won Harris Co. by at least 10 points since 1964.
Trump has a 2-to-1 advantage over Clinton among Harris Co. Anglo voters, while Clinton leads Trump, 61%-17%, among likely Hispanic/Latino voters and 69%-6% among African-American voters. Clinton leads Trump, 52%-28%, among female likely voters, and Trump leads Clinton, 41%-34%, among male likely voters.
In most cases, Trump’s level of support increases and Clinton’s falls among “extremely likely” voters over just likely voters or registered voters. This finding mirrors the recent Texas Lyceum poll, which also showed higher levels of support for Clinton among people not as likely to vote.
The UH poll finds registered voters evenly split on whether they view Clinton favorably or unfavorably, but they view Trump unfavorably by a 2-to-1 margin. Among Hispanic/Latino, Clinton’s net favorability is +38 while Trump’s is -61.
The telephone survey of 550 voters registered in Harris Co. was conducted September 1-20 and has a stated margin of error of ±4%.
In April, the annual Kinder Houston Area Survey found that a majority of Harris Co. residents “think of themselves as closer to the Democratic Party than the Republican Party” for the first time in the poll’s 35-year run.