Trump’s Lead Within Margin of Error in YouGov Poll

A CBS News/YouGov 2016 Battleground Tracker poll shows Donald Trump narrowly leading Hillary Clinton, 46%-43%, which is within the margin of error. The minor party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein polled at 5% and 1%. respectively. Just 3% of respondents were undecided.

Donald
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Trump leads among men, 46%-40%, and among women, 46%-45%. Men were four times as likely to select Johnson (8% versus 2% of women). Clinton leads among voters under 30 (48%-27%) and between 30 and 44 (47%-39%). Trump leads among voters aged 45 to 64 (54%-40%) and 65 or older (58%-36%).

Trump leads among Anglos, 63%-26%, but Clinton leads among Hispanics/Latinos, 61%-31%, and African-Americans, 84%-6%.

“Independents” favored Trump, 48%-29%, and Johnson received 10% of their support. “Moderates” favored Clinton, 49%-31%. Trump has a huge 81%-6% advantage among “white evangelicals.” Clinton leads among everyone else, 56%-33%. “White evangelicals” comprised about 27% of the sample.

Older voters were more likely to say they were “very motivated, can’t wait to vote.” Less than 60% of voters under 30 shared that sentiment compared to 71% of voters aged 45 to 64 and 75% of voters 65 and older. About 70% of each polled ethnic group said they were “very motivated” to vote.

Three out of five poll respondents thought the respective political parties should have “nominated someone else” instead of Trump and Clinton. A slim plurality (45%-43%) of Republicans and conservatives (46%-43%) believe Trump should not have been the nominee, and the remainder said it depended on whether he wins or loses. Clinton was more popular among her core constituencies, as 23% of Democrats and 28% of Liberals thought someone else should have been nominated.

A majority of respondents believe voter fraud happens “a lot” (34%) or “sometimes” (25%), led by white voters (42% and 27%, respectively). Half of Hispanic/Latino voters believe voter fraud happens “a lot” (23%) or “sometimes” (27%). Republicans were six times more likely to believe that voter fraud happens “a lot” (52% to 9%), and 41% of “independents” share that sentiment. Almost three quarters of respondents who said voter fraud happens “a lot” or “sometimes” believe Trump would win “if there was no voter fraud this year.”

Other findings of note:

• Less than a third of women and a quarter of Hispanics/Latinos believe Trump “respects women.”
• Nearly a quarter of Republicans believe that illegal immigrants should be allowed to remain in the country and eventually apply for citizenship
• A majority of Republicans and a third of “independents” believe immigrants make the country “worse in the long run.”
• Twice as many voters aged 65 and older think a U.S.-Mexico border wall is a “good idea that can probably be completed” than voters under 30.
• About 60% of respondents intend to vote early in person, and another 37% intend to vote on Election Day in person.

The Internet survey of 1,031 “likely voters” was conducted October 20-21. Its stated margin of error is ±4.4%. YouGov’s October 2014 poll conducted for CBS News showed Greg Abbott leading Wendy Davis, 57%-37%.