An NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll (pdf) of Texas voters shows Donald Trump with a 9-point lead over Hillary Clinton. It is the third poll conducted after the FBI director’s letter to Congress regarding Clinton’s emails. All three polls have shown a widening race that is returning to historical norms for the state, although we have significant reservations about one of those polls.
Trump leads Clinton, 49%-40%, among “likely voters,” with Libertarian Gary Johnson receiving 6% and Jill Stein receiving 2%. Both minor-party candidates polled well above their parties’ historical performances. The poll indicates his lead is just 45%-41% among all registered voters, reaffirming prior poll results showing Clinton to be more favored by non-voters. In particular, the poll found “a smaller percentage of Latino voters in Texas being likely voters than their makeup of all registered voters in the state.”
Consistent with recent polls, both candidates are underwater when it comes to favorability, but Trump is slightly less disliked. Clinton’s favorability rating among likely voters is 33/63 and Trump’s is 38/56. Clinton’s numbers improve, slightly, and Trump’s decline, also slightly, among groups less likely to vote. In fact, residents dislike Trump slightly more than Clinton, 33/61 to 35/58. President Obama’s approval rating follows the same script. Forty-three percent of likely voters approve the job he is doing as president and 51% disapprove, but 49% of residents approve while 44% disapprove.
No other details or crosstabs were available. Marist’s website indicated more information would be available on Friday.
The poll of 1,138 adults was in the field October 30-November 1 using landline and mobile numbers. Live interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Of that sample, 943 were registered voters and 679 were defined as likely voters using a probability turnout model. The stated margins of error are ±2.9%, ±3.2% and ±3.8%, respectively.
2016 Presidential Polls of Texas Voters
NBC/WSJ/Marist: Trump 49, Clinton 40, Johnson 6, Stein 2 (Nov. 2016)
Our Take: Trump by 9 in Marist Poll
CBS News/YouGov: Trump 46, Clinton 43, Johnson 5, Stein 1 (Oct. 2016)
Our Take: Trump’s Lead Within Margin of Error in YouGov Poll
U of H Hobby School: Trump 41, Clinton 38, Johnson 4, Stein 1 (Oct. 2016)
Our Take: Polls Continue to Show Narrowing Trump Lead in Texas
KTVT/Dixie Strategies: Trump 46, Clinton 35, “another candidate” 9 (Aug. 2016)
Our take: Polls, Pledges and Gerrymanders: News for August 11
UT/Texas Politics Project: Trump 39, Clinton 32, Johnson 7, “someone else” 14 (June 2016)
Our take: Second Poll Puts Clinton Within 10 of Trump in Texas