An NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll (pdf) of Texas voters shows Donald Trump with a 9-point lead over Hillary Clinton. It is the third poll conducted after the FBI director’s letter to Congress regarding Clinton’s emails. All three polls have shown a widening race that is returning to historical norms for the state, although we have significant reservations about one of those polls.
Trump leads Clinton, 49%-40%, among “likely voters,” with Libertarian Gary Johnson receiving 6% and Jill Stein receiving 2%. Both minor-party candidates polled well above their parties’ historical performances. The poll indicates his lead is just 45%-41% among all registered voters, reaffirming prior poll results showing Clinton to be more favored by non-voters. In particular, the poll found “a smaller percentage of Latino voters in Texas being likely voters than their makeup of all registered voters in the state.”