An NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll (pdf) of Texas voters shows Donald Trump with a 9-point lead over Hillary Clinton. It is the third poll conducted after the FBI director’s letter to Congress regarding Clinton’s emails. All three polls have shown a widening race that is returning to historical norms for the state, although we have significant reservations about one of those polls.

Trump leads Clinton, 49%-40%, among “likely voters,” with Libertarian Gary Johnson receiving 6% and Jill Stein receiving 2%. Both minor-party candidates polled well above their parties’ historical performances. The poll indicates his lead is just 45%-41% among all registered voters, reaffirming prior poll results showing Clinton to be more favored by non-voters. In particular, the poll found “a smaller percentage of Latino voters in Texas being likely voters than their makeup of all registered voters in the state.”

Consistent with recent polls, both candidates are underwater when it comes to favorability, but Trump is slightly less disliked. Clinton’s favorability rating among likely voters is 33/63 and Trump’s is 38/56. Clinton’s numbers improve, slightly, and Trump’s decline, also slightly, among groups less likely to vote. In fact, residents dislike Trump slightly more than Clinton, 33/61 to 35/58. President Obama’s approval rating follows the same script. Forty-three percent of likely voters approve the job he is doing as president and 51% disapprove, but 49% of residents approve while 44% disapprove.

No other details or crosstabs were available. Marist’s website indicated more information would be available on Friday.

The poll of 1,138 adults was in the field October 30-November 1 using landline and mobile numbers. Live interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Of that sample, 943 were registered voters and 679 were defined as likely voters using a probability turnout model. The stated margins of error are ±2.9%, ±3.2% and ±3.8%, respectively.

2016 Presidential Polls of Texas Voters

NBC/WSJ/Marist: Trump 49, Clinton 40, Johnson 6, Stein 2 (Nov. 2016)
Our Take: Trump by 9 in Marist Poll

Emerson: Trump 49, Clinton 35, Johnson 5, Stein 4 (Nov. 2016)
Our Take: Questionable Emerson Poll Has Trump Up 14

KTVT/Dixie Strategies: Trump 52, Clinton 39, Johnson 3, Stein <1 (Oct. 2016)
Our Take: New Poll First to Show Trump Over 50

UT/Texas Tribune: Trump 45, Clinton 42, Johnson 7, Stein 2 (Oct. 2016)
Our Take: UT/TT Poll: Trump 45, Clinton 42

Crosswind/AAS: Trump 45, Clinton 38, Johnson 7 (Oct. 2016)
Our Take: Crosswind: Trump by 7

CBS News/YouGov: Trump 46, Clinton 43, Johnson 5, Stein 1 (Oct. 2016)
Our Take: Trump’s Lead Within Margin of Error in YouGov Poll

U of H Hobby School: Trump 41, Clinton 38, Johnson 4, Stein 1 (Oct. 2016)
Our Take: Polls Continue to Show Narrowing Trump Lead in Texas

WFAA/SurveyUSA: Trump 47, Clinton 43, Johnson 3, Stein 1 (Oct. 2016)
Our Take: New Poll Suggests Tightening Presidential Race

KTVT/Dixie Strategies: Trump 45, Clinton 38, Johnson 4, Stein 1 (Oct. 2016)
Our Take: Another Poll Shows Trump with Single-digit Lead

Lyceum: Trump 39, Clinton 32, Johnson 9, Stein 3 (Sept. 2016)
Our take: Lyceum Poll: Trump 39, Clinton 32
Our take: Non-voters More Likely to Identify with Democrats

Emerson: Trump 42, Clinton 36, Johnson 10, Stein 6 (Sept. 2016)
Our take: Another Poll Shows Single-digit Trump Lead

WaPo/SurveyMonkey: Trump 40, Clinton 40, Johnson 11, Stein 3 (Sept. 2016)
Our take: Texas a Toss-up State in New ‘Poll’

Public Policy Polling: Trump 44, Clinton 38, Johnson 6, Stein 2 (Aug. 2016)
Our take: New Poll: Trump 44, Clinton 38 in Texas

KTVT/Dixie Strategies: Trump 46, Clinton 35, “another candidate” 9 (Aug. 2016)
Our take: Polls, Pledges and Gerrymanders: News for August 11

UT/Texas Politics Project: Trump 39, Clinton 32, Johnson 7, “someone else” 14 (June 2016)
Our take: Second Poll Puts Clinton Within 10 of Trump in Texas

Beatty: Trump 37, Clinton 30, Johnson 3 (June 2016)
Our take: Poll: A Third of Texans Undecided for President