Tomorrow (Tuesday) is the primary election in Texas. Our live coverage of results and analysis will begin at about 7 p.m. CT and can be found at https://txelects.com/live/.

Here are some of the storylines we’re watching.

Fallen incumbents? At least five incumbent legislators have been defeated in primary elections (not counting runoffs) in every election year since 2002, except for 2016, when only four fell on primary night. Twenty Republican legislators and six Democrats have lost their battles for re-nomination on primary night since 2012.

This year feels different. For one, the scorecard conservative groups and donors that have poured millions into contested Republican primaries have largely stood down this cycle. Empower Texans PAC made no reportable expenditures during the 8-day-out campaign finance period. It spent $1.4M during this period for 2018, up from $1.0M in 2016 and $708K in 2014. The group has also endorsed far fewer state candidates this year than in recent years. It endorsed in just six House races, down from 39 in 2018.

Four of the most endangered incumbents could end up in runoffs.

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