Tarrant Co. Races Feature Sharp Ideological Divide

Three hotly contested Tarrant Co. Republican primary races feature candidates backed by conservative groups and individuals opposed to Speaker Joe Straus (R-San Antonio) facing off against what they call “the establishment.” In HD92, Rep. Jonathan Stickland (R-Bedford), a vocal opponent of the Speaker, seeks a third term as he faces Bedford pastor Scott Fisher. In HD94, Rep. Tony Tinderholt (R-Arlington) seeks a second term as he faces Arlington attorney Andrew Piel. In HD99, anti-Straus groups are on the offensive as Fort Worth businessman Bo French challenges 8-term Rep. Charlie Geren (R-Fort Worth), one of Straus’s top lieutenants.

At least two Tarrant Co. representatives have been defeated in each election cycle since 2006, including four in the Republican primary. Since 2012, Reps. Giovanni Capriglione (R-Southlake), Matt Krause (R-Fort Worth) and Tony Tinderholt (R-Arlington) ousted Republican incumbents as the Tea Party rose to prominence in the county.

Add to these the open-seat wins by the Tea Party-backed Stephanie Klick and Stickland in 2012 and Konni Burton in 2014, and a case can be made that Tarrant Co. is the epicenter of the Tea Party movement. Ted Cruz received 61% of the vote in Tarrant Co. in the 2012 U.S. Senate runoff against David Dewhurst, one of his highest percentages in an urban county.

HD92

Stickland rode both a Tea Party wave and his ability to connect with small donors in the district to win an open-seat race against former Bedford council member Roger Fisher, 60%-40%, in 2012. He easily dispatched Hurst-Euless-Bedford ISD trustee Andy Cargile, 65%-35%, in 2014. The two-term incumbent has more than $300K on hand as of January 21, giving him a more than 20-to-1 advantage over his opponent.

More than half of Stickland’s $468K in contributions so far in 2015-16 has come from just three sources: Empower Texans PAC ($104K), Cisco fracking magnate Farris Wilks and his wife Jo Ann ($78K) and Dallas hotelier Monty Bennett ($51K plus $5K from MJB Operating LP). Since his first run for office, Empower Texans has contributed more than $265K, Bennett at least $120K and Wilks at least $83K.

However, Stickland is not dependent upon these donors because has remained closely connected to small donors in the district. He has received donations of $1,000 or less from 174 district residents, almost six times as many as his opponent, and he has out-raised Fisher in the district, $41K to $29K. Stickland also retains close ties to the district’s Republican precinct chairs, 28 of whom are listed on his web site’s endorsements page. Stickland won every one of these precincts in 2014, taking 67% of the vote.

This local support has been enough to override local officials’ endorsing his opponents. His 2012 opponent was endorsed by all three H-E-B mayors, 13 council members and six school board members (including his future 2014 opponent). His 2014 opponent was endorsed by two of the three H-E-B mayors, 11 council members and five school board members. As far as we cam tell, Fisher’s campaign has not released a list of endorsements from local elected officials.

It has also been enough to override local law enforcement groups and Austin-based associations and PACs, which once again favor Stickland’s opponent. Former Gov. Rick Perry has endorsed Fisher, who was a four-time gubernatorial appointee.

Now a two-term incumbent, Stickland has more of a record to scrutinize, and Fisher has focused on Stickland’s vote to oppose eliminating the statute of limitations for certain sexual assault crimes (House Bill 189). Fisher has also focused on salacious comments Stickland posted in online forums, mostly prior to his election to the House. Stickland counters that Fisher has supported Obamacare and Medicaid expansion. Fisher denies these allegations.

Turnout is always a key to primary races, and an up-in-the-air presidential primary will likely lure many to the Republican primary who normally vote only in general elections, if at all. HD92 primary turnout was 12% in 2012 and 13% in 2014. While it is not clear that increased turnout would favor more moderate candidates, this will likely be the largest group of voters to pass judgment on Stickland’s tenure and future as a state representative.

HD94

The surprise wasn’t that Tony Tinderholt defeated former Rep. Diane Patrick (R-Arlington) in the 2014 primary. Patrick’s recent voting record put her squarely among the most liberal of the Republicans at a time when the Tea Party was rising around her, and she appeared to be caught somewhat flat-footed after an easy 2012 primary win. The surprise was how easily he did it. He won or tied 37 of the 53 precincts where votes were cast, despite being out-raised 2-to-1, en route to a 55%-45% victory over the four-term incumbent.

Tinderholt won despite raising less than 4% of his funds from district zip codes and having just 32 district residents giving him $1K or less (Patrick raised nearly $30K from the district heading into the primary compared to Tinderholt’s less than $4K.). More than 70% of Tinderholt’s campaign contributions, as of the 8-day-out reports, came from two sources: Accountability First PAC ($45K) and Empower Texans PAC ($20K). The former has not been active this cycle, but Empower Texans and the PACs’ donors have provided at least 60% of his contributions so far. Tinderholt has raised 7% of his contributions from district zip codes, and 54 district residents have given him $1K or less.

His opponent, Andrew Piel, has slight advantages in district-based contributions, but he is otherwise well behind Tinderholt in resources as of January 21 and likely to remain behind.

Several mostly former local and state officeholders, including the late Sen. Chris Harris (R-Arlington), have endorsed Piel, as well as law enforcement groups and more than 100 individuals (It is unclear how many are district residents.).

Piel has attacked Tinderholt for the same no vote against eliminating the statute of limitations for certain sexual assault crimes as well as a no vote against increasing penalties for indecent exposure (House Bill 777). Tinderholt, whose Facebook page touts his standing as “#3 Most Conservative in the Texas House,” decries what he calls “outlandish and vile attacks” by his opponent.

Tinderholt continues to hold the Tea Party and movement conservative groups’ support, as well as support from current legislators and four current Tarrant Co. elected officials.

Ted Cruz received 2K more votes than David Dewhurst in their 2012 runoff race in HD94, his second largest margin of victory in any Tarrant Co. House district. Dan Patrick’s margin over Dewhurst was closer to 2,500 in their 2014 runoff race among HD94 voters.

As with HD92, here the incumbent has most of the advantages. It remains to be seen if higher turnout moderates the electorate and erodes those advantages. While not a landslide, Tinderholt’s 2014 victory was decisive, and he should win this race.

HD99

It’s been six years since Rep. Charlie Geren (R-Fort Worth) faced a primary opponent despite several sessions of saber-rattling by movement conservative groups that consistently rate him lowly on their scorecards. He has a career rating of F, according to Empower Texans, the largest contributor to Geren’s opponent, Fort Worth security services businessman Bo French.

The race has quickly become one of the most expensive in the state. The two candidates have raised more than $1.1 million to date. Geren holds all of the campaign finance advantages, but French has sustained solid fundraising results through the election cycle.

French announced he was challenging Geren in early April 2015, making him one of the earliest to enter this year’s primary. He raised more than $100K prior to July 1 and has sustained that fundraising ability at least through the first three weeks of 2016. We expect movement conservative groups and their supporters to continue to invest heavily in French (They’ve invested at least $139K so far.).

Geren has raised more money in the district than French ($83K to $54K), but both have practically the same number of district residents giving them $1K or less (135 and 136, respectively). Geren’s continued involvement in the district and continued fundraising activity in the district are assets when facing an aggressive challenger.

French is the former business partner of Chris Kyle, whose story was featured in the film American Sniper. Following Kyle’s death, his widow sued French and another partner, alleging they seized the company from her. That suit was later settled.

French has attacked Geren for being “one of the most liberal members of the Texas House” and described himself as “a consistent conservative voice” if elected. Geren touts his experience and conservative record while attacking French for his lack of experience and voting record in Republican primaries (Geren claims French has voted in one Republican primary since 2002; French has not disputed this assertion as far as we know.).

HD99 voters are conservative but not as historically enthusiastic about Tea Party candidates as other Tarrant Co. house districts. In the 2012 runoff for U.S. Senate, Ted Cruz defeated David Dewhurst by just over 1,500 votes in HD99, his second smallest margin in a Republican-held Tarrant Co. district.

Geren has faced down well-funded and/or Tea Party-minded conservatives before, but he has not topped 60% when challenged in the primary. His last opponent came in 2010, when he defeated future Rep. Matt Krause, 58%-42%. Krause had the least resources of three successive challengers ($30K in contributions), as the movement conservative groups and other Republican mega-donors stayed largely out of that race. They played in the previous two.

Geren’s 2008 opponent, Fort Worth optometrist Tom Annunziato, raised just shy of $500K and spent a little over $450K. His three biggest contributors were the Texas Optometric PAC ($153K), public education voucher advocate James Leininger ($100K) and the Empower Texans PAC ($71K). Like Krause, he received 42% of the vote.

Incidentally, Annunziato also branded Geren “soft on immigration,” a claim echoed by French this cycle.

In 2006, Chris Hatley raised more than $320K, most of which was in kind from a PAC funded almost exclusively by Leininger, to mount a conservative challenger to Geren. He also received more than $60K from the late Bob Perry, a major benefactor to Republican campaigns. Toward the end of that race, five of Geren’s more conservative Metroplex-area colleagues endorsed Hatley. Their endorsement came days after Speaker Tom Craddick, ironically, endorsed Geren, who would go on to be one of the “cardinals” who orchestrated the coup that elevated Joe Straus.

The key here is how much has the district evolved toward a more Tea Party worldview, and whether increased primary turnout makes the electorate more conservative as a whole or more moderate. Geren has faced well-funded, more conservative challengers in the recent past, and he has remained connected to the district’s voters and political donors. At this time, we expect he will withstand his opponent’s, and his opponent’s supporters, withering attacks,