Our exploration of straight-ticket voting trends in competitive or potentially competitive districts turns to Republican-leaning HD43, where Rep. J.M. Lozano (R-Kingsville), who was first elected as a Democrat, is seeking his fourth term.

HD43 is today comprised of Bee, Jim Wells, Kleberg and San Patricio Cos., which wrap around Nueces Co. on the South Texas coast. Three of them have reliably voted for Republicans at the top of the ballot since at least 2000, and Republicans have become increasingly competitive at the local level in all four counties.

Lozano defeated incumbent Rep. Tara Rios Ybarra (D-South Padre Island) in the 2010 Democratic primary and easily dispatched a minor party candidate in the general election.

Rep. J.M. Lozano

Rep. J.M.
Lozano

Marisa Yvette Garcia-Utley

Marisa Yvette Garcia-Utley

Redistricting dramatically changed the landscape of HD43, trading Democratic strongholds like Brooks, Jim Hogg and Willacy Cos. for more Republican-friendly Bee and San Patricio Cos.

Following the 2011 session, Lozano announced he would seek re-election as a Republican, and he formally changed parties in May 2012. He narrowly defeated former Rep. Yvonne Gonzalez Toureilles (D-Alice) by 3 points in the general election. Lozano won San Patricio Co. by more than 3,200 votes and narrowly carried Kleberg Co., his home county, by 217 votes. He lost Bee Co. by 200 votes and Jim Wells Co., home to Gonzalez Toureilles, by nearly 1,800 votes.

In 2014, he won all four counties, faring better than gubernatorial nominee Greg Abbott in each one.

Lozano faces Alice fitness studio owner and former Jim Wells Co. Democratic Chair Marisa Yvette Garcia-Utley. No minor party candidates are in the race. She stepped down as party chair to run for HD43 and was succeeded by Marc Toureilles, husband of Lozano’s 2012 opponent. Garcia-Utley is engaged to Jim Wells Co. Judge Pete Trevino Jr.

Estimates of the number of straight-ticket and full-ballot votes cast in the 2004 presidential election and the actual number of those votes in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections in the counties currently comprising HD43 are shown below.

2004

  • Straight Republican – 9,100 31% 31%
  • Straight Democratic – 14,800 50% 50%
  • Full Ballot – 29,400 100% 100%

Democratic Advantage: ~5,700 votes

%

Straight Republican

%

Straight Democratic

2008

  • Straight Republican – 8,997 31% 31%
  • Straight Democratic – 14,024 48% 48%
  • Full Ballot – 27,966 95% 95%

Democratic Advantage: 5,027 votes

%

Straight Republican

%

Straight Democratic

2012

  • Straight Republican – 10,555 36% 36%
  • Straight Democratic – 12,122 41% 41%
  • Full Ballot – 24,894 85% 85%

Democratic Advantage: 1,567 votes

%

Straight Republican

%

Straight Democratic

Republicans have greatly cut into Democrats’ once great advantage in straight-ticket voting in these counties. Republicans actually had narrow advantages in the last two gubernatorial elections. In 2012, Lozano overcame a 1,567-vote Democratic advantage, which was a significantly smaller hurdle than a Republican would have faced in 2008 (5,027 votes) or 2004 (~5,700 votes).

Consistent with the high number of competitive races and mix of Democrats and Republicans elected to office, most voters in what is now HD43 cast a full ballot. Lozano received 56% of the full-ballot vote in 2012, which was more than enough to overcome the Democratic candidate’s advantage in straight-ticket voting.

We do not have data from Bee and Kleberg Cos. prior to 2002. However, we know that Democrats had a 6,288-vote advantage in Jim Wells and San Patricio Cos. in 2000. We know that the Democratic incumbents running unopposed for the House received 75% and 46% more votes than Al Gore in Bee and Kleberg Co., respectively. From these and other data points, we estimate the Democratic advantage in what is now HD43 in 2000 was probably around 8,500 votes. Despite that disadvantage, George W. Bush carried the district with 51% of the vote, winning three of the four counties.

About two out of every five votes cast in HD43 comes from San Patricio Co., which has been carried by the top Republican on the ballot since 1998. The other three counties represent about 20% of the vote each.

The Republican presidential nominee has averaged 60% of the vote in San Patricio Co. head-to-head against the Democratic nominee since 2000, and the last two Republican gubernatorial nominees have topped 60% there. Republicans have held a straight-ticket voting advantage in the county since 2010. The number of voters casting a straight Republican ballot doubled between 2000 and 2012, turning a 2,151-vote disadvantage in 2000 into a 1,242-vote advantage in 2012.

8 Democrats, 7 Republicans elected.
Republicans won both contested races.

County Judge – Terry Simpson (D) unopposed
Judge, County Court at Law – Richard Hatch III (D) unopposed
District Clerk – Laura Miller (R) 56%, Cookie Garza (D) 44%
County Clerk – Gracie Alaniz-Gonzales (D) unopposed
County Treasurer – Courtenay Dugat (R) unopposed
County Surveyor – Julius Petrus Jr. (R) unopposed
County Commissioner P2 – Fred Nardini (R) unopposed
County Commissioner P4 – Jim Price (R) unopposed
Justice of the Peace P1 – Yolanda Guerrero (D) unopposed
Justice of the Peace P2 – Danny Garza (D) unopposed
Justice of the Peace P4 – Karen Diaz (R) unopposed
Justice of the Peace P5 – Amada Cardenas (D) unopposed
Justice of the Peace P6 – Charlene Lewis (R) 56%, Kevin Schneider (D) 44%
Justice of the Peace P8 – Henry Montemayor (D) unopposed
Constable P2 – Steve Garcia (D) unopposed

9 Democrats, 3 Republicans elected.
Democrats won both contested races.

District Attorney – Patrick Flanigan (D) unopposed
County Attorney – David Aken (D) unopposed
Sheriff – Leroy Moody (D) unopposed
Tax Assessor-Collector – Dalia Sanchez (R) unopposed
County Commissioner P1 – Nina Trevino (D) unopposed
County Commissioner P3 – Alma Villarreal Moreno (D) 59%, Virginia Brandenburg (R) 41%
Constable P1 – Gonzalo Gonzales (D) unopposed
Constable P2 – Steve Garcia (D) unopposed
Constable P4 – Pamel Haynes (R) unopposed
Constable P5 – Juan Gonzales (D) 62%, Valde Ramirez (I) 38%
Constable P6 – Don Perkins (R) unopposed
Constable P8 – Terry Gonzales (D) unopposed

8 Republicans, 6 Democrats elected.
Republicans won all four contested races.

County Judge – Terry Simpson (now R) 64%, Jimmie Alaniz (D) 36%
Judge, County Court at Law – Richard Hatch III (D) unopposed
District Clerk – Laura Miller (R) 67%, Cookie Garza (D) 33%
County Clerk – Gracie Alaniz-Gonzales (D) unopposed
County Treasurer – Courtenay Dugat (R) unopposed
County Surveyor – Julius Petrus Jr. (R) unopposed
County Commissioner P2 – Fred Nardini (R) unopposed
County Commissioner P4 – Jim Price (R) 68%, Stewart Wilson (D) 32%
Justice of the Peace P1 – Yolanda Guerrero (D) unopposed
Justice of the Peace P2 – Danny Garza (D) unopposed
Justice of the Peace P4 – Karen Diaz (R) unopposed
Justice of the Peace P5 – Amada Cardenas (D) unopposed
Justice of the Peace P6 – Charlene Lewis (R) 56%, Kevin Schneider (D) 44%
Justice of the Peace P8 – Roger Powell (D) unopposed

8 Democrats, 4 Republicans elected.
Democrats won two of three contested races.

District Attorney – Patrick Flanigan (now R) unopposed
County Attorney – David Aken (D) unopposed
Sheriff – Leroy Moody (D) unopposed
Tax Assessor-Collector – Dalia Sanchez (R) unopposed
County Commissioner P1 – Nina Trevino (D) unopposed
County Commissioner P3 – Alma Villarreal Moreno (D) 51%, Randy Sikes (R) 49%
Constable P1 – Joe Gaitan (D) unopposed
Constable P2 – Steve Garcia (D) 51%, Chris Nunez (R) 49%
Constable P4 – Pamel Haynes (R) unopposed
Constable P5 – Juan Gonzales (D) unopposed
Constable P6 – Don Perkins (R) 63%, Ron Howe (D) 37%
Constable P8 – Terry Gonzales (D) unopposed

8 Republicans, 5 Democrats elected.
Republicans won both contested races.

County Judge – Terry Simpson (R) unopposed
Judge, County Court at Law – Elizabeth Welborn (R) 60%, Melissa Franco de Gonzales (D) 40%
District Clerk – Laura Miller (R) unopposed
County Clerk – Gracie Alaniz-Gonzales (D) unopposed
County Treasurer – Courtenay Dugat (R) unopposed
County Surveyor – no candidate filed
County Commissioner P2 – Fred Nardini (R) unopposed
County Commissioner P4 – Jim Price (R) unopposed
Justice of the Peace P1 – Yolanda Guerrero (D) unopposed
Justice of the Peace P2 – Danny Garza (D) unopposed
Justice of the Peace P4 – Karen Diaz (R) unopposed
Justice of the Peace P5 – Nene Villarreal (D) unopposed
Justice of the Peace P6 – Susan Price (R) 71%, Henrie Morales (D) 29%
Justice of the Peace P8 – Elvia Hernandez (D) unopposed

6 races contested.

District Attorney – Sam Smith (R) unopposed
County Attorney – David Aken (D) vs. Tamara Cochran-May (R)
Sheriff – Leroy Moody (now R) unopposed
Tax Assessor-Collector – Dalia Sanchez (R) vs. Alma Aleman-Guerra (D)
County Commissioner P1 – Nina Trevino (D) vs. Ski Zagorski (R)
County Commissioner P3 – Alma Villarreal Moreno (D) unopposed
County Commissioner P4 – Howard Gillespie (R) vs. Jacob Lopez (D)
Constable P1 – Joe Gaitan (D) unopposed
Constable P2 – Steve Garcia (D) vs. Chris Nunez (R)
Constable P4 – Pamel Haynes (R) unopposed
Constable P5 – Juan Gonzales (D) unopposed
Constable P6 – Ron Howe (now R*) unopposed
Constable P8 – Terry Gonzales (D) vs. J.P. Easley (R)

* Howe defeated incumbent Don Perkins in Republican primary

Locally, the county judge switched to the Republican Party before the 2010 election and the district attorney followed suit two years later. Last year, Sheriff Leroy Moody switched parties and filed for re-election as a Republican, and a candidate who has run previously for constable as a Democrat filed as a Republican and ousted the incumbent in the primary.

The top Republican on the ballot has carried Bee Co. since 2004. Democratic legislative candidates fared considerably better, carrying Bee Co. (often unopposed) until 2010, when Republican challenger Jose Aliseda received 56% of the vote in his home county against Gonzalez Toureilles. Aliseda, currently the Bee Co. county attorney, is up for re-election this year. The number of Republican straight-ticket voters has remained fairly flat for the last three election cycles, but the number of Democratic straight-ticket voters has dropped by around 40%. Lozano narrowly lost Bee Co. in 2012, but he won it by 1,003 votes in 2014.

George W. Bush carried Kleberg Co. for both of his presidential elections, but Barack Obama carried the county by about 10 points in the last two presidential elections. Likely a record number of Republican straight-ticket votes were cast in 2012, but Democratic straight-ticket voting fell for the second consecutive presidential election. Lozano carried Kleberg Co. by 217 votes in 2012 and 1,208 votes in 2014.

Jim Wells Co. remains the only reliably Democratic county in the district, but even it has become competitive in recent years. In 2014, Lozano became the first Republican candidate for the Legislature to carry the county since at least 1992 (and likely much, much longer ago). Lozano received 750 more votes than Greg Abbott, and Wendy Davis received 623 more votes than Lozano’s opponent. Put another way, about 20% of Lozano’s votes came from people who voted for Davis. In 2012, Lozano lost Jim Wells Co. by 1,780 votes, but his opponent was from there and had previously represented the county in the Legislature.

All four counties have both Democratic and Republican elected officials, and each features multiple contests for county office contested by both parties.

CONTESTED

County Judge (R)
Sheriff (open)
Co. Comm. P1 (D)
Co. Comm. P3 (open)

REPUBLICAN UNCONTESTED

District Attorney (former Rep. Jose Aliseda)
Co. Attorney
Tax Assessor-Collector
Constable P2

DEMOCRAT UNCONTESTED

Constable P1
Constable P4

CONTESTED

Sheriff (open)
Co. Comm. P3 (R)
Constable P3 (R)
Constable P6 (D)

REPUBLICANS UNCONTESTED

None

DEMOCRATS UNCONTESTED

District Attorney
Co. Attorney
Tax Assessor-Collector
Co. Commissioner P1
Constable P1
Constable P4
Constable P5

CONTESTED
Sheriff (open)
Co. Commissioner P1 (R)
Constable P1 (open)

REPUBLICANS UNCONTESTED

None

DEMOCRATS UNCONTESTED

Co. Attorney
Tax Assessor-Collector
Co. Commissioner P3
Constable P2
Constable P3
Constable P4

CONTESTED

Co. Attorney (D)
Tax Assessor-Collector (R)
Co. Commissioner P1 (D)
Co. Commissioner P4 (open)
Constable P2 (D)
Constable P8 (D)

REPUBLICANS UNCONTESTED

District Attorney
Sheriff
Constable P4
Constable P6
DEMOCRATS UNCONTESTED

Co. Commissioner P3
Constable P1
Constable P5

Lozano had a $142K advantage in cash on hand as of June 30, thanks in significant part to a $100K loan to his campaign. Garcia-Utley was one of just nine challengers to raise at least $20K during the first six months of the year, although the majority were in-kind contributions. The candidates’ 30-day-out reports should shed significant light on the challenger’s competitiveness.

In September, a series of news stories brought to light Garcia-Utley’s nearly 20-year-old arrest record and subsequent probation. In a statement, Garcia-Utley acknowledged she “experienced an incident that I hope no woman has to endure.” Local Democratic leaders have expressed support for her.

The wildcard in a race like this is presidential politics. If Donald Trump fares significantly worse than recent Republican presidential nominees in these four counties, then there could be a down-ballot impact, boosting Democrats and harming Republicans. About 60% of the voting-age population is Hispanic/Latino.

We will take another look at this race later this month.