Our continuing series on straight-ticket voting trends in competitive or potentially competitive districts turns to HD23, comprised of Chambers Co. and about half of Galveston Co., including all of the cities of Galveston, La Marque and Texas City.

Rep. Wayne Faircloth

Rep. Wayne
Faircloth

Lloyd Criss

Lloyd
Criss

Freshman Rep. Wayne Faircloth (R-Galveston) is the first Republican ever to represent HD23 (including when HD23 was located in East Texas) and only the fourth Republican to represent Galveston County in the House since 1887. In fact, both representatives from Galveston Co. are Republicans for the first time since 1873 (Rep. Greg Bonnen of HD24 is the other.). Faircloth faces one of the Democrats who used to represent Galveston Co., former Rep. Lloyd Criss (D-La Marque), who served six terms from 1979 to 1991. There are no minor party candidates in the race.

The Galveston Co. portion of HD23 remains friendly to Democrats, but Republicans have made significant inroads. In 2004, Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry beat George W. Bush in the Galveston Co. precincts currently in HD23 by about 6,300 votes. Eight years later. Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney cut that margin in half, losing by just over 3,000 votes.

Chambers Co. is overwhelmingly Republican. Faircloth received 75% of the vote there in his unsuccessful 2012 race against former Rep. Craig Eiland (D-Galveston), who two years earlier faced his first Republican opponent since 2000. In 2014, Faircloth received 83% of the vote against former District Judge Susan Criss, the daughter of Faircloth’s current opponent.

Because of their growing strength in Galveston Co. and their lock on Chambers Co., Republicans have swung what used to be a significant deficit in straight-ticket voting to an advantage in HD23’s current precincts. In 2014, more people voted a Republican straight-ticket ballot than a Democratic straight-ticket ballot for the first time.

Estimates of the number of straight-ticket and full-ballot votes cast in the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections and the actual number of those votes in the 2012 presidential election are shown below. Data from 2000 were not available from either county at this time.

2004

  • Straight Republican – 12,200 47% 47%
  • Straight Democratic – 20,800 81% 81%
  • Full Ballot – 25,800 100% 100%

Democratic Advantage: ~8,600 votes

%

Straight Republican

%

Straight Democratic

2008

  • Straight Republican – 11,900 46% 46%
  • Straight Democratic – 17,500 68% 68%
  • Full Ballot – 25,200 98% 98%

Democratic Advantage: ~5,600 votes

%

Straight Republican

%

Straight Democratic

2012

  • Straight Republican – 17,802 69% 69%
  • Straight Democratic – 18,000 70% 70%
  • Full Ballot – 20,845 81% 81%

Democratic Advantage: 198 votes

%

Straight Republican

%

Straight Democratic

Compared to 2004, the number of Republican straight-ticket voters has risen 46% while the number of Democratic straight-ticket voters has fallen 13% districtwide. In just 10 years, a 6,600-vote Democratic advantage has been turned into a nearly 3,000-vote Republican advantage.

This significant swing in partisan balance is evident in the races for county offices in the district. In 2004, Democrats won 10 of the 14 races, including two of the three races contested by a Republican. In 2014, a Democrat won just one of the 14 races on the ballot, and he was unopposed in the most Democratic friendly portion of the county (Much of it is in HD23.).

2004 Galveston County Office Results

10 Democrats, 4 Republicans elected

Countywide
Sheriff: Democrat 52%-48%
Tax Assessor-Collector: Republican 50.6%-49.4%

Partial County
Co. Commissioner P1: Democrat unopposed
Co. Commissioner P2: Democrat 72%-28%
Justice of the Peace P5: Democrat unopposed
Justice of the Peace P8: Republican unopposed
Constable P1: Democrat unopposed
Constable P2: Democrat unopposed
Constable P3: Democrat unopposed
Constable P4: Democrat unopposed
Constable P5: Democrat unopposed
Constable P7: Republican unopposed
Constable P8: Republican unopposed
Constable P9: Democrat unopposed

Countywide, Republicans had a 631-vote advantage in straight-ticket voting, which could easily be overcome by full-ballot voters.

2014 Galveston County Office Results

13 Republicans, 1 Democrat elected

Countywide
District Attorney: Republican unopposed
County Judge: Republican 71%-29% over independent
Judge, Co. Court at Law No. 1: Republican unopposed
Judge, Co. Court at Law No. 2: Republican unopposed
Judge, Co. Court at Law No. 3: Republican unopposed
Judge, Co. Probate Court: Republican unopposed
District Clerk: Republican unopposed
County Clerk: Republican unopposed
County Treasurer: Republican unopposed

Partial County
Co. Commissioner P2: Republican unopposed
Co. Commissioner P4: Republican 76%-24%
Justice of the Peace P1: Republican unopposed
Justice of the Peace P2: Republican 57%-43%
Justice of the Peace P3: Democrat unopposed*

*Within HD23, Democrats have a 2,428-vote advantage in straight-ticket voting in the precincts comprising Justice of the Peace P3. Outside that JP precinct, Republicans have a 1,500-vote advantage within the rest of HD23. Outside HD23, Republicans have a nearly 14,000-vote advantage in the rest of Galveston Co.

2004 Chambers County Office Results

8 Democrats, 4 Republicans elected

Countywide
District Attorney: Democrat unopposed
County Attorney: Democrat unopposed
Sheriff: Democrat 50.8%-49.2%
Tax Assessor-Collector: Democrat unopposed

Partial County
Co. Commissioner P1: Democrat 66%-34%
Co. Commissioner P3: Republican unopposed
Constable P1: Democrat unopposed
Constable P2: Democrat unopposed
Constable P3: Republican 65%-35%
Constable P4: Republican unopposed
Constable P5: Democrat unopposed
Constable P6: Republican unopposed

2014 Chambers County Office Results

12 Republicans, 1 Democrat elected

Countywide
County Judge: Republican unopposed
District Clerk: Republican unopposed
County Clerk: Republican unopposed
County Treasurer: Republican unopposed
County Surveyor: Republican unopposed

Partial County
Co. Commissioner P2: Republican unopposed
Co. Commissioner P4: Republican unopposed
Justice of the Peace P1: Republican unopposed
Justice of the Peace P2: Republican unopposed
Justice of the Peace P3: Republican unopposed
Justice of the Peace P4: Republican unopposed
Justice of the Peace P5: Democrat unopposed
Justice of the Peace P6: Republican unopposed

Chambers Co. voters were similarly split among Democratic and Republican candidates for local office in 2004. By 2014, the only Democrat to run at all ran unopposed. The other 12 county offices on the ballot were uncontested wins by Republicans.

Eiland was unopposed in each of the four elections after Chambers Co. was added to HD23 and the Galveston Co. portion was drawn to be more forgiving of Republican candidates. Prior to 2010, Eiland’s last contested race was in 2000. At that time, his district (then HD24) was entirely within Galveston Co., and he won 59%-41%. That same year, Chambers Co. was carried by the incumbent Democratic Rep. Zeb Zbranek, 55%-45% (It was his home county.). In 2002, Eiland, Zbranek and Rep. Patricia Gray (D-Galveston) were drawn into the same district by the Republican-controlled Legislative Redistricting Board, which stepped in to draw districts when the Legislature failed to adopt a redistricting bill during the 2001 regular session.

Republican voters in both counties had a history of supporting longtime incumbent Democrats, or at least not running someone against them.

Galveston Co.’s lone Democrat to win a county office in 2014, Justice of the Peace Penny Pope, won her seventh term. She had previously been elected JP in two other precincts back when Galveston Co. had more than the current four. She has been unopposed in the general election since at least 2002. Likewise, Chambers Co.’s lone winning Democrat in 2014 has been in office since at least 2002, and he won three contested races (66% in 2002, 65% in 2006, 58% in 2010).

Eiland’s retirement had a noticeable impact on full-ballot voters’ partisan leanings in their choice of a new representative. In Chambers Co., Susan Criss received less than 20% of the full-ballot vote in 2014, down from Eiland’s 33% in his 2012 race against Faircloth. In Galveston Co., Faircloth’s share of the full-ballot vote increased from 29% against Eiland to 42% against Criss.

Before Galveston Co. began turning red, voters there sent Lloyd Criss to Austin six times. That was long before Galveston Co.’s voters turned increasingly to the Republican Party and Chambers Co., where the Republican straight-ticket advantage has grown from around 500 in 2000 to more than 5,200 in 2012, became part of the district. Historical trends favor Faircloth.

We will take another look at this race later this summer.

Methodology
Because of redistricting and shifts in precinct boundaries over time, we can only estimate straight-ticket voting prior to the last time the district was drawn (2011). We estimated straight-ticket vote totals by applying the current district boundaries backward in time to the precincts as they existed in each general election. The farther back we go, the more estimating is required. We use mapping software to identify which voting precincts lied entirely or partially in the current boundaries of HD107 in each even-year general election. We used precinct-level results from each general election. For each election prior to 2012, we allocated 100%, 75%, 50% or 25% of the votes cast in those precincts to today’s districts based on the approximate geographic area of the precinct within the district. We totaled the resulting precinct- and split precinct-level data to estimate district-wide straight-ticket votes. We rounded to the nearest 100 to avoid appearing too precise in our estimation. For the 2012 and 2014 general elections, we were able to use the current voting precincts within the current districts without the need to allocate votes across split precincts. Because we could use complete precincts, we chose to provide the accurate vote totals. We thank the Texas Legislative Council for providing the shapefile data necessary to conduct this analysis. We obtained precinct-level election results data from county election officials.