Straight-ticket Voting Trends in HD137

Jul 10, 2016 | Uncategorized

Today our exploration of straight-ticket voting trends in competitive or potentially competitive districts turns to the compact HD137, comprised mostly of the Chinatown, Sharpstown, Westchase and Woodlake/Briar Meadow neighborhoods of western Houston. About two thirds of the district’s population speaks a language other than English at home.

Rep. Gene Wu

Rep. Gene
Wu

Kendall Baker

Kendall
Baker

HD137 has been represented by a Democrat since 1981, although it has been significantly redrawn since then. Rep. Gene Wu (D-Houston) represents the diverse district today and is seeking his third term since succeeding former Rep. Scott Hochberg (D-Houston) in 2012. Wu faces Republican Kendall Baker, a Houston pastor, and Libertarian Dan Biggs, a Houston resident.

The precincts currently comprising HD137 are voting increasingly in favor of Democratic candidates. After narrowly supporting George W. Bush (52%) for president in 2000, these precincts have been carried by Democrats John Kerry (55%) in 2004 and Barack Obama (63% and 65%) in 2008 and 2012.

Since 2000, the number of Democratic straight-ticket votes has increased by nearly 5,000. In 2012, Democratic straight-ticket voters produced 46% of all ballots cast, up from 28% in 2000. Republican straight-ticket voting has remained largely flat over the period, averaging 25% of all votes cast in what is now HD137.

Because HD137’s boundaries were adjusted in 2013, we are forced to estimate the number of straight-ticket votes in 2012. Estimates of the number of straight-ticket and full-ballot votes cast in the 2000, 2004 and 2008 presidential elections are also shown below.

2000

  • Straight Republican – 6,400 55% 55%
  • Straight Democratic – 6,900 59% 59%
  • Full Ballot – 11,100 96% 96%

Democratic Advantage: ~500 votes

%

Straight Republican

%

Straight Democratic

2004

  • Straight Republican – 7,400 64% 64%
  • Straight Democratic – 9,600 83% 83%
  • Full Ballot – 9,200 79% 79%

Democratic Advantage: ~2,200 votes

%

Straight Republican

%

Straight Democratic

2008

  • Straight Republican – 6,000 52% 52%
  • Straight Democratic – 11,500 99% 99%
  • Full Ballot – 9,400 81% 81%

Democratic Advantage: ~5,500 votes

%

Straight Republican

%

Straight Democratic

2012

  • Straight Republican – 6,000 52% 52%
  • Straight Democratic – 11,600 100% 100%
  • Full Ballot – 7,500 65% 65%

Democratic Advantage: ~5,600 votes

%

Straight Republican

%

Straight Democratic

Wu won his first race for the seat in 2012, capturing 66% of the vote in the district as it was drawn for that election. We estimate the adjustments made to the district likely have no material impact on the 2016 race.

Roughly seven out of every 10 votes cast in what is now HD137 in 2012 were straight-ticket votes. Only about three out of every 10 voted down the full ballot. If those percentages hold in 2016, Wu could receive around 15% of the full-ballot vote and still retain the seat. In 2012, 64% of the full-ballot voters in today’s HD137 gave their support to the Democratic candidate.

Based on the historical straight-ticket voting trends and propensity of full-ballot voters to support Democratic candidates, we conclude HD137 does not appear to be in play.

Methodology
Because of redistricting and shifts in precinct boundaries over time, we can only estimate straight-ticket voting prior to the last time the district was drawn (2011). We estimated straight-ticket vote totals by applying the current district boundaries backward in time to the precincts as they existed in each general election. The farther back we go, the more estimating is required. We use mapping software to identify which voting precincts lied entirely or partially in the current boundaries of HD107 in each even-year general election. We used precinct-level results from each general election. For each election prior to 2012, we allocated 100%, 75%, 50% or 25% of the votes cast in those precincts to today’s districts based on the approximate geographic area of the precinct within the district. We totaled the resulting precinct- and split precinct-level data to estimate district-wide straight-ticket votes. We rounded to the nearest 100 to avoid appearing too precise in our estimation. For the 2012 and 2014 general elections, we were able to use the current voting precincts within the current districts without the need to allocate votes across split precincts. Because we could use complete precincts, we chose to provide the accurate vote totals. We thank the Texas Legislative Council for providing the shapefile data necessary to conduct this analysis. We obtained precinct-level election results data from county election officials.