We continue our exploration of straight-ticket voting trends in competitive or potentially competitive districts by returning to Dallas Co. for a look at HD115. The district is comprised of the Dallas Co. portions of Carrollton and Coppell and portions of Farmers Branch and Irving. Small portions of Addison, Dallas and Lewisville also lie within the district’s boundaries.
Rep. Matt
Rinaldi
Dorotha
Ocker
Freshman Rep. Matt Rinaldi (R-Irving) faces Democrat Dorotha Ocker, a Carrollton attorney, in the general election. Rinaldi’s 2014 Democratic opponent, Irving attorney Paul Stafford, has filed paperwork to pursue an independent candidacy, but his online presences and campaign finance reports indicate little forward momentum.
Ocker reported having $106K on hand as of June 30, buoyed by her $100K loan to her campaign. Ocker raised $19K since January 1, about a third of which were in-kind contributions from her law firm. Much of her remaining contributions were received in June. Rinaldi reported less than $2K on hand. He raised less than $7K since his primary rematch victory over former Rep. Bennett Ratliff (R-Coppell). Stafford reported no cash on hand and no contributions.
Rinaldi defeated Stafford by 5,232 votes – slightly more than the Republican straight-ticket advantage – in 2014.
Historically, Democratic straight-ticket voting increases sharply in the presidential election from the previous gubernatorial election in the precincts currently comprising HD115, and Democratic voters have erased half of the Republicans’ advantage in straight-ticket voting over the last dozen years. The other half still remains.
Because HD115’s boundaries were adjusted in 2013, we are forced to estimate the number of straight-ticket votes in 2012. Estimates of the number of straight-ticket and full-ballot votes cast in the 2000, 2004 and 2008 presidential elections are also shown below.
2000
- Straight Republican – 18,100 83%
- Straight Democratic – 7,000 32%
- Full Ballot – 21,200 97%
Republican Advantage: ~11,100 votes
%
Straight Republican
%
Straight Democratic
2004
- Straight Republican – 21,500 98%
- Straight Democratic – 10,100 46%
- Full Ballot – 20,100 92%
Republican Advantage: ~11,400 votes
%
Straight Republican
%
Straight Democratic
2008
- Straight Republican – 19,500 89%
- Straight Democratic – 14,400 66%
- Full Ballot – 21,900 100%
Republican Advantage: ~5,100 votes
%
Straight Republican
%
Straight Democratic
2012
- Straight Republican – 19,000 87%
- Straight Democratic – 14,400 66%
- Full Ballot – 19,600 89%
Republican Advantage: ~4,600 votes
%
Straight Republican
%
Straight Democratic
The Republicans’ advantage in straight-ticket voting reached its smallest level in 2012, but it was still 4,600 votes. A Democratic candidate needed 62% of the vote from full-ballot voters to overcome that straight-ticket voting deficit. Democratic House candidate Mary Clare Fabishak received 43% against Ratliff. It did not help Fabishak that more than 2,500 residents of HD115 voted for Barack Obama and did not vote for anyone down the ballot (or at least not in the HD115 race).
The number of Democratic straight-ticket voters did not drop from 2008 while the number of Republican straight-ticket voters dipped slightly from 2008 and about 12% from the 2004 peak. Full-ballot voters represent a slight plurality in most election years, but the last two gubernatorial elections have seen Republican straight-ticket voters becoming the largest voting bloc. Over the past eight general elections, Republican straight-ticket voters have never represented fewer than 35% of all votes cast, and Democratic straight-ticket voters have never exceeded 27% of all votes cast. It would take a jump in Democratic voting similar to the one in 2008 to change those numbers significantly. An unprecedented drop in Republican turnout could also shift those historical numbers.
Candidates’ hometowns are not havens in HD115. Irving, Rinaldi’s home, is where Democrats run strongest in the district. Democratic candidates had an 1,800-vote advantage in straight-ticket voting in the Irving precincts in 2012. Carrollton, Ocker’s home, favors Republican candidates, giving them an 1,100-vote advantage in straight-ticket voting in 2012. Coppell is strongly Republican, giving the party’s candidates a nearly 4,400-vote advantage in straight-ticket voting in 2012, but that number may have been inflated because it was Ratliff’s hometown.
Any way we look at it, Ocker has a steep climb. The precincts of HD115 remain friendly to Republican candidates despite recent inroads made by Democrats. Her willingness to loan her campaign $100K indicates she intends to mount a serious challenge, but it will take a significant change in voters’ overall attitudes to put Rinaldi’s return to the Legislature in any serious jeopardy.
