The Republican Party appears headed toward record primary turnout on Tuesday, while the Democratic Party is poised to improve dramatically over the last three election cycles.
Early voting ended Friday. Just over 12% of registered voters in the state’s 15 most populous counties cast ballots early, either in person (1,005,954) or by mail (101,113), in a party primary. This is the largest combined total since 2008 and the second-highest combined total in state history. Almost 60% of this year’s early voters participated in the Republican primary.
We’ve been using animated percent counters to show how turnout has compared with other years, but too many of those comparisons are now over 100%. So these two bar graphs are set to the same scale to show how 2016 early-voting turnout in the state’s 15 most populous counties compares to every primary election since 2004:
- 2008 Democratic primary (890,188 voters)
- 2016 Democratic primary (448,859)
- 2014 Democratic primary (224,676)
- 2012 Democratic primary (222,041)
- 2010 Democratic primary (184,694)
- 2004 Democratic primary (165,985)
- 2006 Democratic primary (121,035)
- 2016 Republican primary (658,208)
- 2014 Republican primary (364,952)
- 2012 Republican primary (343,497)
- 2010 Republican primary (306,422)
- 2008 Republican primary (303,338)
- 2006 Republican primary (130,397)
- 2004 Republican primary (106,737)
Republican early-voting turnout has increased in every election cycle since 2004, growing 518% in seven election cycles. Democratic early-voting turnout in 2016 was higher than in 2012 and 2014 combined but just barely half of the record-setting 2008 turnout. Democratic turnout has increased in each of the last three election cycles.
All but one of the state’s 14 most populous counties reported record Republican turnout. The lone exception was El Paso Co., where this year’s early-voting total was 15% below 2008. The 15th most populous county, Brazoria Co., entered the Top 15 for the first time this year, and comparable data was not yet available.
Most counties are not required to report early voting turnout information. We have surveyed a few of the other larger counties and determined that similar results are playing out across the state: record (at least in very recent cycles) Republican turnout and improved Democratic turnout over recent cycles but well short of 2008.
Bell Co.
14,061 Republicans (74% more than 2014, 63% more than 2012)
3,501 Democrats (203% more than 2014, 245% more than 2012)
Cameron Co.
In-person only:
5,235 Republicans (190% more than 2014 in-person EV, 209% more than 2012 in-person EV)
16,748 Democrats (59% more than 2014 in-person EV, 20% more than 2012 in-person EV)
Excludes ballot-by-mail voters
Ector Co.
7,177 Republicans (62% more than 2014, 44% more than 2012)
899 Democrats (6% more than 2014, 98% more than 2012)
Ellis Co.
10,539 Republicans (40% more than 2014)
1,764 Democrats (75% more than 2014)
Guadalupe Co.
8,574 Republicans (29% more than 2014, 41% more than 2012, 59% more than 2010)
2,266 Democrats (118% more than 2014, 188% more than 2012, 202% more than 2010)
Jefferson Co.
8,792 Republicans (31% more than 2014, 26% more than 2012, 96% more than 2010, 178% more than 2008)
14,102 Democrats (71% more than 2014, 50% more than 2012, 32% more than 2010, 33% fewer than 2008)
Lubbock Co.
25,162 total votes cast for both parties (~52% higher than 2014, ~40% higher than 2012).
The Lubbock Avalanche-Journal estimated that at least 75% were Republican voters.
Midland Co.
9,458 Republicans (26% more than 2014, 53% more than 2012, 73% more than 2010, 67% more than 2008)
893 Democrats (69% more than 2014, 203% more than 2012, 168% more than 2010, 72% fewer than 2008)
Smith Co.
15,456 Republicans (48% more than 2014, 31% more than 2012)
2,325 Democrats (67% more than 2014, 160% more than 2012)
Early-voting turnout in 2014 also was record-setting for Republicans, when nearly 365K voted early in person or by mail in the state’s 15 most populous counties. However, Election Day turnout did not produce that record, and, indeed, the 2014 primary ended up having the fourth most votes in the state party’s history. Republican turnout fell below 10% of registered voters for the first time since 2006. This year’s early-voting record is nearly 80% above the last election, so a record-breaking year for Republicans is almost assured.
Top 10 Republican Primary Vote Totals
1,484,542 – 2010 (11.4%)
1,449,477 – 2012 (11.1%)
1,362,322 – 2008 (10.7%)
1,333,076 – 2014 (9.8%)
1,126,757 – 2000 (9.7%)
1,019,803 – 1996 (10.5%)
1,014,956 – 1988 (13.1%)
855,231 – 1990 (10.3%)
797,146 – 1992 (10.0%)
687,615 – 2004 (5.6%)
Percentage refers to percent of registered voters casting ballots.
Top 10 Democratic Primary Vote Totals
2,874,986 – 2008 (22.5%)
2,192,903 – 1972 (56.6%)
1,812,896 – 1978 (35.8%)
1,767,045 – 1988 (22.8%)
1,750,652 – 1968 (43.0%)
1,630,297 – 1964 (Poll Tax Era)
1,576,870 – 1956 (Poll Tax Era)
1,540,763 – 1970 (44.0%)
1,529,168 – 1976 (28.5%)
1,528,834 – 1960 (Poll Tax Era)
Percentage refers to percent of registered voters casting ballots.
Top 10 Combined Primary Vote Totals
4,237,308 – 2008 (33.2%)
2,728,001 – 1988 (35.9%)
2,342,491 – 1990 (28.3%)
2,306,910 – 1972 (59.6%)
2,279,221 – 1992 (28.5%)
2,165,090 – 2010 (16.6%)
2,039,641 – 2012 (15.6%)
1,971,299 – 1978 (38.9%)
1,941,059 – 1996 (20.0%)
1,913,647 – 2000 (16.5%)
Percentage refers to percent of registered voters casting ballots.
The Democratic Party may be able to claim 1 million primary voters for just the third time since 1994. Turnout will be well short of 2008, but could exceed the last two cycles combined. Republicans will see their fifth straight primary with at least 1 million voters.
The highest turnout for a Republican primary based on the number of registered voters is 13.1%, set in 1988. In order to exceed that figure, at least 1,865,250 voters need to cast ballots in this year’s Republican primary.
Only once since 1996 has combined turnout exceeded 20% of registered voters (2008). Ten of the last 11 primary elections comprise the lowest 10 in terms of percent of registered voters participating since the Poll Tax was lifted for the 1968 election. Turnout bottomed out in 2006, when fewer than 9.2% of registered voters participated in either party’s primary election.
Texas turnout is expected to be lower than in the two states that have already held their presidential primaries. In South Carolina, 25.2% of registered voters participated in the Republican presidential primary and 12.5% participated in this weekend’s Democratic presidential primary. In New Hampshire, 32.0% of registered voters participated in the Republican presidential primary and 28.3% participated in the Democratic primary. No other offices were on the ballots in those two states. South Carolina’s state office and legislative primary is June 14. New Hampshire’s is September 13.
