Early voting turnout for the Republican runoff is the lowest since 2008, when there were no statewide races on the ballot, in ten of the state’s 11 most populous counties. Just over 90K people – 1.1% of registered voters – have voted early in the Republican runoff in person or by mail in the state’s nine most populated counties and Montgomery Co., down 58% from 2014 and 65% from 2012.
Notes on Analytical Method
For purposes of analyzing Republican runoff turnout, we have included heavily Republican Montgomery Co., which currently ranks 11th in population, in place of heavily Democratic Hidalgo Co., which ranks 10th in population, because of a lack of prior-year data there. Thus, the counties in this analysis are, in order of population rank: Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, Travis, Collin, El Paso, Denton, Fort Bend and Montgomery.
When discussing Democratic runoff turnout, we include Hidalgo Co. and exclude Montgomery Co..
When discussing absentee, or ballot-by-mail, turnout, we utilize the 15 most populous counties, which includes all mentioned above plus Williamson, Galveston, Nueces and Brazoria Cos.
If would have been simpler if we could have used the top 15 counties across the board, but data were not available in Hidalgo, Williamson, Galveston, Nueces and Brazoria Cos. in all years we needed to complete this report.
Both of those prior elections featured high profile statewide races. In 2012, the U.S. Senate runoff between then-Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and Ted Cruz attracted record turnout for a Republican runoff. In 2014, races for LTGOV and AG headlined a number of contests. This year, a RRC battle between Gary Gates and former Rep. Wayne Christian (R-Center) is the top race, joining a pair of fairly low-profile CCA races.
The number of early votes cast in these counties in 2016 is 1% below 2010, when a Supreme Court race between Debra Lehrmann and former Rep. Rick Green was the lone statewide contest.
More have voted in 2016 than in any of the 2004, 2006 or 2008 Republican runoffs. The 2004 runoff was also headlined by a RRC race as incumbent Comm. Victor Carrillo faced Robert Butler. Just over 30K voted early in that election in these 10 counties. The lone 2006 statewide runoff was a Court of Criminal Appeals race between Judge Charles Holcomb and then-Rep. Terry Keel (R-Austin). Just under 50K voted early in that runoff in these 10 counties.
There were no statewide runoffs in 2008, when 56K voted in seven of these 10 counties (There were no Republican runoffs in Denton, El Paso and Travis Cos. in 2008.). Despite the lack of a statewide runoff, more people voted early in Dallas Co. in 2008 than in 2016, and nearly the same number voted early in Harris Co. in 2008 than in 2016.
Total Early Votes Cast in Recent Republican Runoffs by County
Harris Co.
- 2016 – 28,038
- 2014 – 59,122
- 2012 – 70,481
- 2010 – 26,983
- 2008 – 26,284
- 2006 – 7,451
- 2004 – 11,711
Dallas Co.
- 2016 – 6,951
- 2014 – 30,894
- 2012 – 33,895
- 2010 – 7,556
- 2008 – 9,477
- 2006 – 4,190
- 2004 – 1,323
Tarrant Co.
- 2016 – 18,768
- 2014 – 31,108
- 2012 – 34,837
- 2010 – 11,439
- 2008 – 6,637
- 2006 – 13,193
- 2004 – 1,180
Bexar Co.
- 2016 – 6,359
- 2014 – 22,436
- 2012 – 32,764
- 2010 – 9,437
- 2008 – 1,435
- 2006 – 2,367
- 2004 – 2,115
Travis Co.
- 2016 – 3,194
- 2014 – 10,972
- 2012 – 16,056
- 2010 – 7,171
- 2008 – none
- 2006 – 4,405
- 2004 – 5,923
Collin Co.
- 2016 – 6,911
- 2014 – 19,532
- 2012 – 22,650
- 2010 – 10,957
- 2008 – 1,324
- 2006 – 4,972
- 2004 – 2,363
El Paso Co.
- 2016 – 1,091
- 2014 – 2,422
- 2012 – 2,301
- 2010 – 881
- 2008 – none
- 2006 – 675
- 2004 – 578
Denton Co.
- 2016 – 6,110
- 2014 – 9,784
- 2012 – 14,338
- 2010 – 5,632
- 2008 – none
- 2006 – 3,505
- 2004 – 4,519
Fort Bend Co.
- 2016 – 5,256
- 2014 – 9,950
- 2012 – 14,451
- 2010 – 6,617
- 2008 – 4,889
- 2006 – 2,969
- 2004 – 1,417
Montgomery Co.
- 2016 – 7,950
- 2014 – 20,093
- 2012 – 17,268
- 2010 – 4,986
- 2008 – 5,966
- 2006 – 6,195
- 2004 – 510
Local races can boost turnout in runoffs over and above what statewide contests draw. Among these 10 counties, only Dallas and Tarrant Cos. have a countywide office on the ballot in this runoff, and four of the counties (including Harris Co.) have no county office runoffs at all. Collin, Denton and Harris Cos. have a state representative race on the ballot in portions of their counties. A small portion of Travis Co. has a state senate runoff. A combination of lower profile statewide races and a lack of compelling local races seem to be driving low turnout, particularly following the highest-ever Republican primary turnout.
Meanwhile, Democratic runoff turnout in the 10 most populous counties (including Hidalgo Co.) is 23% above 2014 and 4% below 2012 despite the lack of a high-profile statewide race. The number of votes cast early in Hidalgo Co.’s Democratic runoff is more than triple the number cast early in 2014. Democratic runoff early vote turnout in Harris Co. is the highest since at least 1996.
Absentee voting may be driving both parties’ turnout stories. Roughly two out of every five early votes cast in the state’s 15 most populous counties have been by mail, more than double the share of the 2012 early vote. The total number of absentee votes cast is slightly lower than in 2014, but the distribution of those votes is dramatically different.
Absentee Votes as Percent of Early Vote in Recent Runoffs
%
2012
%
2012
%
2014
%
2014
%
2016
%
2016
In all three years, more Republicans cast runoff ballots by mail than Democrats, but Democrats have nearly caught up. In 2016, nearly 30% fewer Republicans have voted by mail than in the 2014 runoff, while 74% more Democrats have voted by mail. Democratic absentee voting is up at least 100% over 2014 in seven counties, while Republican absentee voting is down in all counties (though just by 5 votes in Williamson Co.).
Change in Republican Absentee Votes, 2014-2016
Harris Co. -12%
Dallas Co. -57%
Tarrant Co. -20%
Bexar Co. -47%
Travis Co. -58%
Collin Co. -60%
Denton Co. -6%
El Paso Co. -38%
Fort Bend Co. -44%
Hidalgo Co. -83%
Montgomery Co. -19%
Williamson Co. -0.2%
Galveston Co. -21%
Nueces Co. -68%
Brazoria Co. -64%
Change in Democratic Absentee Votes, 2014-2016
Harris Co. +44%
Dallas Co. +26%
Tarrant Co. +122%
Bexar Co. +166%
Travis Co. +28%
Collin Co. +697%
Denton Co. +23%
El Paso Co. +203%
Fort Bend Co. +23%
Hidalgo Co. +421%
Montgomery Co. +229%
Williamson Co. -2%
Galveston Co. +385%
Nueces Co. +63%
Brazoria Co. +55%
There are still tens of thousands of mail ballots that have not returned. In Harris Co., more than 15K Republican absentee ballots (51% of all ballots mailed) and just under 10K Democratic absentee ballots (46% of all ballots mailed) are still out. In Tarrant Co., 48% of Republican and 60% of Democratic absentee ballots are still out.
In the state’s 15 largest counties, 2.1% of registered voters cast ballots early in the Democratic and Republican primaries. It appears that neither party will see record turnout in this runoff, though it appears the Democrats might get closer to their recent high-water mark (1996) than the Republicans (2012).
Recent Republican Runoff Turnout
2014 – 752,780 (5.5%)
2012 – 1,111,938 (8.5%)
2010 – 335,667 (2.6%)
2008 – n/a
2006 – 166,667 (1.3%)
2004 – 223,769 (1.8%)
2002 – 227,342 (1.9%)
2000 – 224,472 (2.0%)
1998 – 223,348 (2.0%)
1996 – 234,029 (2.5%)
Based on highest number of votes cast in statewide race.
Recent Democratic Runoff Turnout
2014 – 201,283 (1.5%)
2012 – 236,305 (1.8%)
2010 – n/a
2008 – 187,708 (1.5%)
2006 – 207,252 (1.6%)
2004 – n/a
2002 – 620,301 (5.1%)
2000 – 245,450 (2.2%)
1998 – n/a
1996 – 481,895 (5.0%)
Based on highest number of votes cast in statewide race.
