A new Quinnipiac Univ. poll (PDF) shows U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leading U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso), 54%-45%, with 96% of “likely voters” saying their “mind is made up.” The poll also shows Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leading former Dallas Co. Sheriff Lupe Valdez (D), 58%-38%. These numbers are virtually unchanged in the last month. In mid-September, Quinnipiac found Cruz leading, 54%-45%, and Abbott leading, 58%-39%, among “likely voters.”

Cruz leads among men, 62%-37%, and O’Rourke leads among women, 52%-46%. Cruz leads among Anglos, 69%-30%, while O’Rourke leads among Hispanics/Latinos, 61%-37%, and African-Americans, 84%-10%. Cruz runs strongest among Anglos without college degrees, who favor him 80%-19%.

U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke

U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke

U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz

U.S. Sen. Ted

Cruz’s overall favorability rating is 52/44 (+8), virtually unchanged from the September poll, and O’Rourke’s is 45/47 (-2), down slightly in a month. Since September, the percent of respondents who “haven’t heard enough” about O’Rourke dropped by half to just 7%. His change in favorability since September is +2/+5, suggesting those who have recently formed opinions of him were moved by the Cruz campaign and outside groups’ negative advertising. Anglos without college degrees view Cruz most favorably, 75/22 (+53), and O’Rourke most unfavorably, 24/69 (-45)

Meanwhile, an ongoing New York Times/Siena Coll. poll also shows Cruz with a 9-point lead, 52%-43%.

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