A new Quinnipiac Univ. poll (PDF) shows U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leading U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso), 54%-45%, with 96% of “likely voters” saying their “mind is made up.” The poll also shows Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leading former Dallas Co. Sheriff Lupe Valdez (D), 58%-38%. These numbers are virtually unchanged in the last month. In mid-September, Quinnipiac found Cruz leading, 54%-45%, and Abbott leading, 58%-39%, among “likely voters.”
Cruz leads among men, 62%-37%, and O’Rourke leads among women, 52%-46%. Cruz leads among Anglos, 69%-30%, while O’Rourke leads among Hispanics/Latinos, 61%-37%, and African-Americans, 84%-10%. Cruz runs strongest among Anglos without college degrees, who favor him 80%-19%.
Cruz’s overall favorability rating is 52/44 (+8), virtually unchanged from the September poll, and O’Rourke’s is 45/47 (-2), down slightly in a month. Since September, the percent of respondents who “haven’t heard enough” about O’Rourke dropped by half to just 7%. His change in favorability since September is +2/+5, suggesting those who have recently formed opinions of him were moved by the Cruz campaign and outside groups’ negative advertising. Anglos without college degrees view Cruz most favorably, 75/22 (+53), and O’Rourke most unfavorably, 24/69 (-45).
Abbott’s overall favorability rating is 62/32, a slight uptick from September. Valdez’s favorability rating is 31/29, also a slight uptick from September, but 39% of respondents still “haven’t heard enough” about Valdez to form an opinion, nearly identical to a month ago. Valdez leads Abbott by just 4 points among Hispanic/Latino voters, which is actually an improvement over September, when she trailed him by 4 points.
A bare majority of respondents approve of President Trump’s job performance, 51/46, a slight improvement from September’s 49/49. All of that gain came from men, who on balance approve Trump’s performance, 60/37, up from 54/44 in September. Women on balance disapprove, 43/54, nearly identical to September (44/54).
The poll of 730 self-identified “likely voters” was in the field October 3-9 and was conducted in English and Spanish via landlines and mobile devices. It has a stated margin of error of ±4.4%. The margin of error is higher, sometimes much higher, for subgroups.
Meanwhile, a just-completed New York Times/Siena Coll. poll shows Cruz with an 8-point lead, 51%-43%. Cruz leads among men, 56%-39%, and is tied among women, 47%-47%. He leads among Anglos without college degrees, 72%-24%, and among all Anglos, 66%-31%. O’Rourke leads among Hispanics/Latinos, 56%-37%, and African-Americans, 86%-6%. The pollsters had conducted 800 interviews, which required nearly 52K calls to get.
These are just two polls – one of which may be incomplete – and there are still several weeks to go, but O’Rourke does not appear to be gaining any further ground as undecided voters settle into historical patterns. The Quinnipiac poll suggests Valdez has not moved the needle at all since her nomination. In May, Quinnipiac found Abbott leading, 53%-34%, and he has led by at least 16 points in six of the last eight credible polls released about the race.
If Abbott wins by 19 points, then O’Rourke needs roughly 16% of Abbott’s supporters to vote for O’Rourke over Cruz. These polls strongly suggest he is not there.
Recent polls and our reports about them:
- NYT/Siena Coll. (Oct.): Currently Cruz 52-43 (“Quinnipiac Poll: Cruz Still by 9, Abbott by 20“)
- Quinnipiac Univ. (Oct.): Cruz 54-45, Abbott 58-38 (“Quinnipiac Poll: Cruz Still by 9, Abbott by 20“)
- Emerson Coll.* (Oct.): Cruz 47-42, Abbott 53-33 (“New Senate Poll and Other News for October 8“)
- CBS News/You Gov (Oct.): Cruz 50-44 (“Cruz Leads by 6 in First Post-Kavanaugh Poll“)
- Reform Austin (Sept.): Cruz 49-45 (“Cruz, O’Rourke Debate as New Polls Indicate Race Remains Tight“)
- Public Policy Polling (Sept.): Cruz 49-46 (“Cruz, O’Rourke Debate as New Polls Indicate Race Remains Tight“)
- Public Policy Polling (Sept.): Cruz 48-45 (“Another Day, Another Single-digit Cruz Lead“)
- Ipsos/Reuters* (Sept.): O’Rourke 47-45, Abbott 50-41 (“O’Rourke Ahead in Online-only Poll“)
- Quinnipiac Univ. (Sept.): Cruz 54-45, Abbott 58-39 (“Quinnipiac Poll: Cruz by 9, Abbott by 19“)
- CBS-11/Dixie Strategies (Sept.): Cruz 46-42, Abbott 53-34 (“Another Poll Shows Slender Cruz Lead“)
- Crosswind Texas Pulse (Sept.): Cruz 47-44, Abbott 52-39 (“Another Poll Shows Slender Cruz Lead“)
- Emerson Coll.* (August): Cruz 38-37, Abbott 48-28 (“One Debate On, Another Off and Other News for August 27“)
- NBC/Marist Coll. (August): Cruz 49-45, Abbott 56-37 (“Poll: Cruz Up 4, Abbott Up 19“)
- Public Policy Polling (August): Cruz 46-42 (“Texas Drops to 30th and Other Election News for August 7“)
- Quinnipiac Univ. (July): Cruz 49-43, Abbott 51-38 (“Pair of Statewide Polls Show Double-digit Leads for Abbott“)
- Texas Lyceum (July): Cruz 41-39, Abbott 47-31 (“Pair of Statewide Polls Show Double-digit Leads for Abbott“)
- Gravis (July): Cruz 51-42, Abbott 51-41 (“4 Democratic Challengers Top $1M and Other News for July 9“)
- UT/Texas Tribune (June): Cruz 41-36, Abbott 44-32 (“8 File for SD19 and Other Election News for June 25“)
- CBS/YouGov (June): Cruz 50-40 (“Gloves Off in SD19, New SEN Poll and More News for June 24“)
- End Citizens United (June): Cruz 49-43 (“Two Democrats Release Favorable Internal Polls“)
- Public Policy Polling (May): Cruz 48-42 (“Another SEN Poll and Other News for June 6“)
- Baselice (May): Cruz 48-36 (“New Baselice Survey and Election News for July 5“)
- Quinnipiac Univ. (May): Cruz 50-39, Abbott 53-34 (“Poll: Double-digit Leads for Cruz, Abbott“)
- JMC Analytics (May): Cruz 47-40, Abbott 48-36 or 50-39 (“New Poll Suggests Strong Name ID for Independent Candidate“)
- Quinnipiac Univ. (April): Cruz 47-44, Abbott 49-40 or 48-41 (“Quinnipiac: Cruz, Abbott Lead by Single Digits“)
We will repost this list with additional polls as we get closer to Election Day.
* We have serious reservations about the Ipsos and Emerson polls and included them in our reports, and on this list, solely because they received national news attention.
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