A new Quinnipiac Univ. poll (PDF) shows U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leading U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso), 54%-45%, with 96% of “likely voters” saying their “mind is made up.” The poll also shows Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leading former Dallas Co. Sheriff Lupe Valdez (D), 58%-38%. These numbers are virtually unchanged in the last month. In mid-September, Quinnipiac found Cruz leading, 54%-45%, and Abbott leading, 58%-39%, among “likely voters.”

Cruz leads among men, 62%-37%, and O’Rourke leads among women, 52%-46%. Cruz leads among Anglos, 69%-30%, while O’Rourke leads among Hispanics/Latinos, 61%-37%, and African-Americans, 84%-10%. Cruz runs strongest among Anglos without college degrees, who favor him 80%-19%.

U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke

U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke

U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz

U.S. Sen. Ted

Cruz’s overall favorability rating is 52/44 (+8), virtually unchanged from the September poll, and O’Rourke’s is 45/47 (-2), down slightly in a month. Since September, the percent of respondents who “haven’t heard enough” about O’Rourke dropped by half to just 7%. His change in favorability since September is +2/+5, suggesting those who have recently formed opinions of him were moved by the Cruz campaign and outside groups’ negative advertising. Anglos without college degrees view Cruz most favorably, 75/22 (+53), and O’Rourke most unfavorably, 24/69 (-45).

Abbott’s overall favorability rating is 62/32, a slight uptick from September. Valdez’s favorability rating is 31/29, also a slight uptick from September, but 39% of respondents still “haven’t heard enough” about Valdez to form an opinion, nearly identical to a month ago. Valdez leads Abbott by just 4 points among Hispanic/Latino voters, which is actually an improvement over September, when she trailed him by 4 points.

A bare majority of respondents approve of President Trump’s job performance, 51/46, a slight improvement from September’s 49/49. All of that gain came from men, who on balance approve Trump’s performance, 60/37, up from 54/44 in September. Women on balance disapprove, 43/54, nearly identical to September (44/54).

The poll of 730 self-identified “likely voters” was in the field October 3-9 and was conducted in English and Spanish via landlines and mobile devices. It has a stated margin of error of ±4.4%. The margin of error is higher, sometimes much higher, for subgroups.

Meanwhile, a just-completed New York Times/Siena Coll. poll shows Cruz with an 8-point lead, 51%-43%. Cruz leads among men, 56%-39%, and is tied among women, 47%-47%. He leads among Anglos without college degrees, 72%-24%, and among all Anglos, 66%-31%. O’Rourke leads among Hispanics/Latinos, 56%-37%, and African-Americans, 86%-6%. The pollsters had conducted 800 interviews, which required nearly 52K calls to get.

These are just two polls – one of which may be incomplete – and there are still several weeks to go, but O’Rourke does not appear to be gaining any further ground as undecided voters settle into historical patterns. The Quinnipiac poll suggests Valdez has not moved the needle at all since her nomination. In May, Quinnipiac found Abbott leading, 53%-34%, and he has led by at least 16 points in six of the last eight credible polls released about the race.

If Abbott wins by 19 points, then O’Rourke needs roughly 16% of Abbott’s supporters to vote for O’Rourke over Cruz. These polls strongly suggest he is not there.

Recent polls and our reports about them:

We will repost this list with additional polls as we get closer to Election Day.

* We have serious reservations about the Ipsos and Emerson polls and included them in our reports, and on this list, solely because they received national news attention.

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