Storyline we’ll be watching tonight:

Cruz’s Margin. Every recent poll but one has shown U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz with a lead over Donald Trump that is at least at the upper end of the margin of error, and Marco Rubio finishing third by double digits. We’ve noted that the sampling methods of some of these polls indicate differences of opinion when it comes to figuring out exactly who is going to the polls. Cruz did not finish first in his 2012 primary for U.S. Senate against then-Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and others. In fact, he received a little over 34%, which put him 10 points behind. Cruz will almost certainly increase his vote total over that primary, but can he increase his vote percentage to at least 40%?

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