Note: This report has been updated since our breaking news alert.

Sen. Beverly Powell (D-Burleson) has suspended her re-election campaign after legal efforts to restore SD10 to its Tarrant Co.-only configuration failed. Her name will not appear on the general election ballot.

“I cannot in good faith ask my dedicated supporters to spend time and contribute precious resources on an unwinnable race,” Powell said in an announcement video posted to YouTube. “That time and those resources are best spent on efforts that will advance our causes.”

As it has been configured for the past decade, SD10 was 6.1 points bluer than the state as a whole, and the average Democrat received 51% of the vote there, measured head-to-head against the Republican. Had the new configuration been in place for 2020, SD10 would have been 5.1 points redder than the state, and the average Democrat would have gotten 40% of the vote. We rate the district today as Likely R.

Democrats don’t appear to be able to select a new nominee as Powell’s withdrawal does not meet the conditions of Sec. 145.001, Election Code. Even if they could, any replacement nominee would face the same unfriendly district configuration with presumably fewer resources than Powell would have amassed.

Rep. Phil King (R-Weatherford), the Republican nominee, was already heavily favored to flip the seat and is now virtually a lock to win. Libertarian Travis Clayton is also in the race. A Democrat could still file as a certified write-in candidate.

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