Fox News moved Texas from “Solid Republican” to “Lean Republican” today amid another poll indicating a tightening race in the Lone Star State. In addition, a new SurveyMonkey survey conducted for and published by the Washington Post indicates the state is still a toss-up. We have previously expressed significant concerns with SurveyMonkey’s methodology, but its inclusion in national media is likely to contribute toward a narrative of a competitive Texas.

Hobby Poll: Republican nominee Donald Trump’s lead over Democrat Hillary Clinton is within the margin of error, according to a new poll from the Univ. of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs. Trump leads Clinton, 41%-38%, among “likely” voters and 42%-38% among respondents who are “certain to vote.” Libertarian Gary Johnson is preferred by 4% of respondents and Green Jill Stein is at 1%. About 11% are undecided, and another 3% preferred none of the four candidates.

Trump leads Clinton among men, 44%-35%, and Clinton leads among women, 42%-38%. The poll was in the field October 7-15. A videotape of Trump making crude remarks about women became public on October 7.

Respondents who identified themselves as “independent” prefer Clinton, 30%-14%, with Johnson receiving 13%. Almost three in 10 “independents” are undecided.

Consistent with other polls, both candidates remain upside down in favorability, but Clinton has closed the gap and is, at least in this poll, viewed equally unfavorably as her opponent. Trump is viewed favorably by 40% (19% very favorably) while Clinton is viewed favorably by 41% (23% very favorably). Trump is viewed unfavorably by 56% (48% very unfavorably) while Clinton is viewed unfavorably by 54% (47% very unfavorably).

The poll of 1,000 registered voters who said they were “certain” to vote (77% of sample) or “very likely” to vote (23%) was conducted by live telephone interviews (54% landline, 46% wireless). Its stated margin of error is ±3%.

WaPo/SurveyMonkey: Trump leads Clinton, 44%-42%, with Johnson polling at 8% and Stein at 2%, in a new “15-state Battleground Poll” conducted for the Washington Post. No further information was provided by SurveyMonkey. The sample is drawn from registered voters who are in “the pool of respondents to user-generated poll conducted on SurveyMonkey’s platform.” In other words, anyone who does not fill out a SurveyMonkey online poll is automatically excluded from the sample. The survey of 1,332 Texans was in the field October 8-16. A margin for error cannot be calculated because the sample is not randomly drawn from all registered voters.

2016 Presidential Polls of Texas Voters

U of H Hobby School: Trump 41, Clinton 38, Johnson 4, Stein 1 (Oct. 2016)
Our Take: Polls Continue to Show Narrowing Trump Lead in Texas

WFAA/SurveyUSA: Trump 47, Clinton 43, Johnson 3, Stein 1 (Oct. 2016)
Our Take: New Poll Suggests Tightening Presidential Race

KTVT/Dixie Strategies: Trump 45, Clinton 38, Johnson 4, Stein 1 (Oct. 2016)
Our Take: Another Poll Shows Trump with Single-digit Lead

Lyceum: Trump 39, Clinton 32, Johnson 9, Stein 3 (Sept. 2016)
Our take: Lyceum Poll: Trump 39, Clinton 32
Our take: Non-voters More Likely to Identify with Democrats

Emerson: Trump 42, Clinton 36, Johnson 10, Stein 6 (Sept. 2016)
Our take: Another Poll Shows Single-digit Trump Lead

WaPo/SurveyMonkey: Trump 40, Clinton 40, Johnson 11, Stein 3 (Sept. 2016)
Our take: Texas a Toss-up State in New ‘Poll’

Public Policy Polling: Trump 44, Clinton 38, Johnson 6, Stein 2 (Aug. 2016)
Our take: New Poll: Trump 44, Clinton 38 in Texas

KTVT/Dixie Strategies: Trump 46, Clinton 35, “another candidate” 9 (Aug. 2016)
Our take: Polls, Pledges and Gerrymanders: News for August 11

UT/Texas Politics Project: Trump 39, Clinton 32, Johnson 7, “someone else” 14 (June 2016)
Our take: Second Poll Puts Clinton Within 10 of Trump in Texas

Beatty: Trump 37, Clinton 30, Johnson 3 (June 2016)
Our take: Poll: A Third of Texans Undecided for President