Fox News moved Texas from “Solid Republican” to “Lean Republican” today amid another poll indicating a tightening race in the Lone Star State. In addition, a new SurveyMonkey survey conducted for and published by the Washington Post indicates the state is a toss-up. We have previously expressed significant concerns with SurveyMonkey’s methodology, but its inclusion in national media is likely to contribute toward a narrative of a competitive Texas.

Hobby Poll: Republican nominee Donald Trump’s lead over Democrat Hillary Clinton is within the margin of error, according to a new poll from the Univ. of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs. Trump leads Clinton, 41%-38%, among “likely” voters and 42%-38% among respondents who are “certain to vote.” Libertarian Gary Johnson is preferred by 4% of respondents and Green Jill Stein is at 1%. About 11% are undecided, and another 3% preferred none of the four candidates.

Trump leads Clinton among men, 44%-35%, and Clinton leads among women, 42%-38%.

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