A new poll from the Texas Lyceum shows a statistical dead heat in the U.S. Senate race, except that “haven’t thought enough about it” is the response of a plurality of registered voters. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) are tied, 30-30, and U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) leads Cruz, 35-31. Democrats also lead the generic ballot test for Congress, 43-34, when the Republican and separate Tea Party candidates are combined.
However, the election is more than 20 months away, and the poll’s sample has a relatively high proportion of self-identified Democrats (32%) and independents (40%) relative to the number of self-identified Republicans (27%). It also has a high proportion of Hispanics/Latinos (38%) relative to the electorate.
Overall, 34% of adults said the country is “moving in the right direction” while 52% said it is “off on the wrong track.” These numbers are noticeably better than the September poll, when 28% of adults thought the country was on the right track and 63% thought the wrong track, except that the partisan balance is reversed:
- Among Republicans, 73% believe the country is on the right track and 14% say the wrong track (+59). In September, just 8% said the country was on the right track while 87% said the wrong track (-79).
- Only 9% of Democrats believe the country is on the right track while 84% say the wrong track (-75). In September, 52% of Democrats said the country was on the right track while 36% said the wrong track (+17).
- Among adults identifying with neither party, 26% believe the country is on the right track while 53% say the wrong track (-27). In September, 17% of “independents” thought the country was on the right track and 72% said the wrong track (-55).
While “independents” are still pessimistic about the country’s direction overall, their mood is considerably better than it was eight months ago.
A majority of Hispanic/Latino adults believe the country is headed in the wrong direction (56%), almost unchanged from September (58%).
President Trump’s overall approval rating is 43/54, with 36% of Texas adults saying he is doing a “very poor job”:
- 48/46 among males (31% very poor)
- 37/61 among females (41% very poor)
- 60/37 among Anglos (25% very poor)
- 34/64 among Hispanics/Latinos (41% very poor)
- 39/56 among independents (34% very poor); and
- 44/53 among suburban residents (38% very poor)
Gov. Greg Abbott’s approval rating is 53/30, and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick’s is 38/32. Patrick and declared opponent Mike Collier are in a statistical tie (Collier leads, 27-25), but nearly half of voters “haven’t thought enough about it.”
The poll of 1,000 adults, which included 890 registered voters, was in the field from April 3-9. The stated margin of error for the full sample is ±3.1%. The stated margin of error for the questions posed to registered voters is ±3.28%.
©2017 Texas Election Source LLC
