Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leads challenger Beto O’Rourke (D), 50%-42%, among “likely voters,” buoyed by a better than 2-to-1 advantages among white voters and independents, according to a new poll conducted for the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation. Abbott’s lead rises to 12 points among “most likely (almost certain) voters.”

Abbott leads among white voters (65%-29%), men (61%-34%) and independents (51%-19%). O’Rourke leads among Black voters (88%-11%), Hispanic/Latino voters (53%-39%) and women (47%-45%).

Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R) leads runoff challenger Land Comm. George P. Bush (R), 65%-23% – a wider margin than the one found by a poll for Defend Texas Liberty PAC, which has endorsed Paxton. In addition to retaining 92% of his support from the primary election, Paxton gains 88% from voters who supported U.S. Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-Tyler) in the primary. Two thirds of Republicans cited the fact Bush was a member of the Bush family as a reason why they would not vote for him.

Paxton leads either potential Democratic challenger in November by 6-7 points among likely voters and 10-12 points among the “most likely” voters. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) leads either of his potential Democratic challengers by nearly identical margins.

In the Democratic runoffs for LTGOV and AG, Mike Collier leads Rep. Michelle Beckley (D-Carrollton), 43%-31%, and Rochelle Garza leads Joe Jaworski, 46%-31%, respectively.

Republicans lead the generic ballot for Congress, 49%-42%, among “likely voters,” a margin that increases to 52%-40% among “most likely voters.”

The survey of 1,435 registered voters, which included an oversample of 435 Hispanic/Latino voters, was conducted “utilizing YouGov data collection systems and processes” and was in the field March 18-28. The stated margin of error for the full sample is ±2.6%.

HD61 open (Likely R): Speaker Dade Phelan (R-Beaumont) endorsed Frederick Frazier (R) in the runoff over Paul Chabot.

CD34 special (Lean R): Harlingen attorney and former Cameron Co. Comm. Dan Sanchez (D) is expected to run in the special election to serve the unexpired term of former U.S. Rep. Vilemom Vela (D-Brownsville). Sanchez would not be able to run for a full term – U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzales (D-McAllen) in the Democratic nominee. – unless he ran as a write-in candidate. Republican nominee Mayra Flores is already in the race.

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