A poll commissioned by several Texas Democrats indicates a third of “likely” 2016 general election voters do not presently plan to vote for presumptive nominees Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton. Among poll respondents, Trump leads by 7 points, 37%-30%.
Leland Beatty conducted the poll of 998 Texas voters via live telephone calls on June 13-14. The poll has a stated margin of error of ±3.1%. Its sample includes 61% female voters, which would appear to be an over-representation. No other demographic information was included in the summary or limited crosstabs.
Straight-ticket voters comprise much of each presidential candidate’s support: 63% of Trump’s supporters and 58% of Clinton’s supporters intend to vote a straight ticket. Just 7% of Trump’s supporters would “vote for some Democrats” while 19% of Clinton’s supporters would “vote for some Republicans.”
This finding is probably the most striking aspect of the poll, because it seems to be the opposite of what one would expect if Trump’s high negative ratings among Republicans were, in effect, turning voters off from the party’s down-ballot nominees. Instead, the poll shows more straight-ticket loyalty to Trump than Clinton and a stronger affinity of Trump voters to the rest of the Republican ballot than Clinton’s voters to the Democrats.
About half of the 26 voters supporting Libertarian Gary Johnson said theirs was “a protest vote.”
A question asking about “corruption in Texas government” specifically mentioned (without naming names) that Attorney General Ken Paxton “has been indicted with fraud” and Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller “is currently under investigation by the Texas Rangers.” Given the wording of the question, the fact that 46% of respondents thought corruption was a “widespread” problem and 31% said it was “a problem, but not widespread,” is unsurprising.