The Texas Lyceum and Quinnipiac Univ. released polls on Texas statewide races today, and both groups found Gov. Greg Abbott (R) with a double-digit lead over former Dallas Co. Sheriff Lupe Valdez (D) but U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in a much closer race against U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso).


Among “likely voters”:

  • Abbott leads Valdez, 47%-31%, with Libertarian Mark Tippetts receiving 1% support. A sixth of “likely voters” said they “haven’t thought enough about it.”
  • Gov. Dan Patrick (R) leads Mike Collier (D), 39%-29%, with Libertarian Kerry McKennon receiving 4% support and 25% not having “thought enough about it.”
  • Gen. Ken Paxton (R) leads Justin Nelson (D), 35%-25%, with Libertarian Michael Ray Harris receiving 4% support. More than a third of “likely voters” have not “thought enough about it.”
  • Cruz leads O’Rourke, 41%-39%, with Libertarian Neal Dikeman receiving 1% support and a sixth of “likely voters” reporting they “haven’t thought enough about it.”

Abbott’s job approval rating among “likely voters” is 57/33 (+24). Patrick’s is 41/30 (+11).

Lyceum polled 1,178 adults, half of them via mobile phones and 15% via online means, between July 9 and July 25. Bilingual interviewers and instruments were available. The stated margin of error for the whole sample is ±2.9%. The larger sample included an equal percentage of self-identified Democrats and Republicans (39%) each and nearly as many self-identified “moderates” (34%) as “conservatives” (37%).

More than a quarter of respondents are not registered to vote, and nearly a quarter of them are either “not very interested” or “not all interested” in politics. Lyceum determined “likely voters” as those who were either “extremely interested” or “somewhat interested” in politics and either voted in the 2018 primary, 2014 general or 2010 general elections. This yielded a subset of 441 “likely voters,” and the margin of error of that sample is ±4.7%.

The poll toplines (PDF) and crosstabs (PDF) are available online.


Among “Texas voters”:

  • Abbott leads Valdez, 51%-38%, compared to 53%-34% in the university’s May poll.
  • Cruz leads O’Rourke, 49%-43%, compared to 50%-39% in the May poll.

Abbott’s favorability rating is 51/32 (+19), while Valdez’s is 25/20 (+5). More than half of voters “haven’t heard enough” about Valdez to form an opinion of her, which is virtually unchanged from May.

Cruz’s favorability rating is 50/42 (+8), while O’Rourke’s is 33/23 (+10). That means 46% of respondents “haven’t heard enough” about him to form an opinion, an ongoing problem for the O’Rourke campaign.

Cruz leads among men, 56%-36%, while O’Rourke leads among women, 49%-43%. Cruz leads among Anglo voters, 61%-31%. O’Rourke leads among African-American voters, 81%-14%, and among Hispanic/Latino voters, 52%-40%.

The poll memo, including crosstabs (PDF), is available online.

©2018 Texas Election Source LLC