A new Ipsos poll of 992 “likely voters” (PDF) interviewed exclusively online finds U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) leading U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R), 47%-45%, making the first poll to show O’Rourke ahead. The poll also finds Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leading former Dallas Co. Sheriff Lupe Valdez (D), 50%-41%, his first single-digit lead in a poll since April.

Suffice it to say, we do not believe this is a valid assessment of the state of the race.

The initial sample of “roughly 2,000 adults” was randomly drawn from “Ipsos’s online panel …, partner online panel sources and ‘river’ sampling.” It was reduced to 992 “likely voters.” The poll has no standard margin of error. Instead, its stated credibility interval is ±3.5%. The poll was in the field September 6-14.

The partisan breakdown of “likely voters” was 47% Republican, 43% Democrat and 9% independent. The incredibly small sample size for independent voters makes their specific data points largely meaningless. The mix of respondents’ age, gender or race was not provided, and no crosstabs were provided for these characteristics. The results were weighted based on these and other characteristics, but no further information was provided.

The poll’s release comes one day after a Quinnipiac Univ. poll using landline and mobile phones found Cruz leading by 9 and Abbott by 19.

Recent polls and our reports about them:

We will repost this list with additional polls as we get closer to Election Day.

* We have serious reservations about the Ipsos and Emerson polls and included them in our reports, and on this list, solely because they received national news attention.

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