A new Ipsos poll of 992 “likely voters” (PDF) interviewed exclusively online finds U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) leading U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R), 47%-45%, making the first poll to show O’Rourke ahead. The poll also finds Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leading former Dallas Co. Sheriff Lupe Valdez (D), 50%-41%, his first single-digit lead in a poll since April.

Suffice it to say, we do not believe this is a valid assessment of the state of the race.

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