Friday’s release of crude comments made by Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump – this election cycle’s “October surprise” – has changed the narrative of the race nationally. Will it have any impact in Texas?
Almost all Republican elected officials who had endorsed Trump appeared to be staying with him, even as some condemned his specific comments.
Later this week, we will take a deeper dive into recent Texas polls to determine a baseline of support for Trump among key demographics to see if there is any drop in that support in future polls. That would only specifically impact Trump. The question is, do candidates down the ballot need to fear any fallout if Texans’ support for Trump erodes? We speculate on possible effects going down the ballot.
President. Texas is likely to stay a red state, but a single-digit Trump victory could embolden Democrats in future election cycles.
Congress. There isn’t likely to be much of an impact because there is only one truly competitive race in the state. U.S. Rep. Will Hurd (R-San Antonio) has never endorsed Trump and called on him to step aside this weekend, but he is the likeliest congressional candidate to feel a “Trump effect.” Trump’s rhetoric about immigration and building a wall along the border with Mexico already was likely to cause heat for Hurd. If Hurd loses support from women who would otherwise vote for Republicans, his road to re-election gets that much more challenging.
There may be a greater impact in the 2018 primaries, as candidates who have taken supportive stands on Trump may have those stands used against them by challengers whose figurative hands are clean.
Statewide: Again, Texas is a red state, and Republican candidates have a significant advantage in straight-ticket voting and among voters casting a full ballot. Democratic statewide candidates who were not at the top of the ballot have tended to fare slightly better than presidential, U.S. senatorial and gubernatorial candidates because there is a drop off in voters from the top races to those lower visibility statewide races. It remains unlikely that a Democrat can get a win, but one or more may get within single digits despite having practically no campaign resources.
Senate: No impact, because none of the races are competitive.
House: Democratic campaigns are likely to try to tie their Republican opponents to Trump and the presidential campaign’s narrative. In most races, that will not affect the outcome. The bigger threat may be a drop in Republican straight-ticket voting because a number of Texans will decline to vote for Trump. Straight-ticket voters guarantee support to candidates down the ballot. No candidate is guaranteed a vote from a full-ballot voter, including candidates of the political party generally supported by that voter. Even a small drop in the number of votes that would otherwise have gone to House and other down-ballot Republican candidates could change the outcome of several races and make others closer. In addition, any increase in Democratic straight-ticket voting guarantees every Democratic candidate down the ballot a vote.
Down Ballot: Same as for the House, but even more magnified, particularly for judicial candidates, as more full-ballot voters take passes on races for which they do not know anything about the candidates. Straight-ticket votes make up a larger share of the vote in down-ballot races, until we get to certain county-level races (particularly in smaller counties) where many voters know the candidates personally.
