New Poll Suggests Tightening Presidential Race

A new WFAA-TV/SurveyUSA poll puts Hillary Clinton within four points – and the margin of error – of Donald Trump in Texas. It is the first poll conducted since an audiotape of Trump’s crude comments about women from 2005 surfaced a week ago.

Trump leads Clinton, 47%-43%, overall. He leads Clinton among men, 47%-44%, and among women, 47%-43%. Trump leads Clinton by 7 among “suburban men,” and the pair are tied among “suburban women.”

Interestingly, 16% of “very conservative” and 26% of “conservative” likely voters said they would vote for Clinton. Over a quarter of “evangelical” likely voters said they woukd vote for Clinton.

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Trump leads Clinton by 25 points among voters aged 50-64 and by 13 among voters aged 65 and older. Clinton leads Trump, 54%-28%, among voters under 35 and by four points among voters 35-49.

Trump leads Clinton among Anglos, 61%-28%. Clinton leads among African-Americans, 80%-16%, and Hispanics/Latinos, 57%-34%. The latter group was more likely to be undecided than other ethnic groups. Clinton leads Trump, 49%-26%, among likely voters who identified themselves as “independent,” with 18% of those respondents undecided.

Geographically, Trump fared best in the Dallas/Fort Worth (+8), Houston (+6) and West Texas regions (+15). Clinton fared best in the Rio Grande Valley (+9) and the Austin and San Antonio regions (+8).

The poll shows the minor party candidates collectively below 5%, which is more in line with historical performance. Libertarian Gary Johnson received support from 3% of respondents, and Green Jill Stein was preferred by 1% of respondents. Johnson fared best among likely voters who leaned Republican. He was the choice of 13% of those respondents, finishing ahead of Clinton’s 6%. Nine percent of voters under 35 preferred Johnson, more than triple the support he earned from any other group.

Looking ahead to 2018, the poll found registered voters evenly split on whether they approve of U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (45/45). However, “very conservative” respondents gave him a 66/26 favorability rating, and “conservative” respondents rated him 57/35.

Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (39/29) and AG Ken Paxton (38/31) had slightly higher net approval ratings overall but about a third of respondents gave “unsure” responses. “Very conservative” respondents rated them 59/18 and 55/20, respectively.

A majority of Hispanic/Latino adults were opposed to letting transgender students use the restroom with which they identify and opposed to Syrian refugees settling in Texas.

The poll of 800 adults was in the field October 10-12 and conducted by telephone (67% landline, 33% by questionnaire shown on smartphone/tablet display). Of the 800 respondents, 734 were registered to vote and SurveyUSA determined that 638 were likely to vote. The stated margin of error is ±4%.