Baselice Survey: Republican pollster Mike Baselice released a two-page memo summarizing key findings from his May 2018 Texas Voter Survey, which was conducted for Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC. Some notable data points:

  • Greg Abbott (R) had the highest net favorability rating of the six candidates and officeholders tested (55/26).
  • S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leads U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso), 48%-36%. Libertarian candidate Neal Dikeman is the choice of 3% while 11% are undecided.
  • Cruz’s net favorability is 50/39. O’Rourke’s is 28/13, and two out of every five respondents have “never heard of” him.
  • Gen. Ken Paxton (R) leads Justin Nelson (D), 45%-33%. Libertarian candidate Michael Ray Harris was selected by 6% of respondents. Nearly one out of every six respondents was undecided.
  • The large number of undecideds may be a function of relative low name ID among the candidates. More than a quarter of respondents have “never heard of” Paxton (whose favorability rating was otherwise 31/19) and more than three out of every five respondents have “never heard of” Nelson (11/5).
  • Asked about a generic ballot for Court of Criminal Appeals, 47% of respondents said they would vote for a Republican candidate, and 38% would vote for the Democrat.

Crosstabs were not provided. However, Baselice concluded “these double-digit leads come from a combination of a Republican-leaning electorate and the current advantage GOP officeholders enjoy among their base voters relative to that of their Democratic opponents.”

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©2018 Texas Election Source LLC