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Speaker Dade Phelan was bound to make history last night. He was going to become either the first incumbent Speaker ousted in a primary or primary runoff since 1972, or he would become the first incumbent legislator to win a primary runoff after finishing in second place in the March primary since 1992. 

He accomplished the latter – the first to do since Sen. John Whitmire eked out a 52%-48% victory after finishing second to Roman Martinez by 2.7 percentage points in the 1992 Democratic primary. Unofficial results show Phelan defeating challenger David Covey, 51%-49%, a margin of 366 votes. In March, Covey (46%) finished 1,015 votes ahead of Phelan (43%).

Covey ran strongest in Jasper Co., where he received nearly the same vote total in the runoff (3,214) as he did in the primary (3,302). Phelan saw his support in Jasper Co. shrink considerably. He received half the votes in the runoff (1,271) as in the primary (2,528) there. Phelan ran stronger in Jefferson Co., his home county, running up a margin of 3,145 votes in the runoff compared to 2,043 in the primary. Phelan also closed the gap in Orange Co., which Covey carried by 836 votes in the runoff compared to 2,284 in the primary.

As he did in March, Covey fared better among Election Day voters than early voters. Phelan carried the early runoff vote by 962 votes (53%-47%). Covey carried the ED vote by 596 votes (54%-46%). Early voters comprised 70% of the runoff electorate, an increase of 6 percentage points from the primary.

Covey’s campaign blamed Phelan’s relatively stronger performance on what he claimed were high numbers of Democratic crossover voters. In a statement, Covey claimed Phelan stole the election after it claimed to have “identified at least 1,442 Democrats” who cast early ballots in Jefferson Co.  

Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton echoed Covey, claiming Phelan had “blatantly stolen an election from the hard-working people of his district.” Paxton used the charge to call for a “closed” Republican primary election, which would limit the number of potential voters based upon a partisan registration requirement that does not currently exist in state law.

The rhetoric of a “stolen” election now includes situations where Texas voters lawfully exercised their constitutional rights to vote in accordance with the laws of the state. 

So, was the number of past Democratic primary voters casting early ballots in this Republican runoff unusually high? Let’s look at the data. To be clear, I am neither accepting the Covey campaign’s figure nor challenging it. The question is whether the figure he cited would be an outlier demonstrating evidence of a coordinated effort to draw Democratic primary voters into the runoff specifically to vote for Phelan.

In the March primary, around 4% of the early voters statewide in the Republican primary had recent history (within the past four primary elections) voting in a Democratic primary. Around 4% of the early voters in the Democratic primary statewide similarly had recent history voting in a Republican primary, according to an analysis of primary early voting by Republican strategist Derek Ryan, whose reports we have cited many times in our election analyses. 

A total of 17,664 early votes have been counted in the HD21 runoff. Four percent of those is roughly 700. Covey’s campaign claims a number more than twice that figure. But the 4% measuring stick is a statewide average. What about Jefferson Co.? 

According to Ryan’s data, 12.5% of early voters in Jefferson Co.’s 2024 Republican primary had recently voted at least one Democratic and one Republican primary since 2016, but their most recent primary vote was Republican. Another 6% of early voters in Jefferson Co. either had only Democratic primary voting history (4.7%) or mixed history with the most recent primary election being a Democratic one (1.4%). 

That collective group of voters represented 18.6% of early voters. If the same percentage were applied to the HD21 runoff, we’d expect to see nearly 3,300 EARLY votes cast by voters who voted in at least one Democratic primary or runoff since 2016. That’s more than double the figure Covey’s campaign cited.

Is this an outlier result? No. 

Let’s go back further. In the 2020 Republican primary in Jefferson Co., 9.4% of early voters had both Democratic and Republican voting history with the most recent being a Republican primary (vs. 12.5% in 2024). Another 7.1% had only recent Democratic primary voting history (vs. 4.7% in 2024), and 5.1% had mixed history with the most recent primary election being a Democratic one (vs 1.4% in 2024). Collectively, 21.6% of Republican primary early voters had some recent Democratic voting history, compared to 18.6% in 2024.

I do not have Ryan’s analysis of the 2016 primary, but I would expect to see similar numbers. Why? The 2008 Democratic primary had record turnout statewide because of the close presidential contest between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. It’s likely that a significant number of those voters participated in later Republican primaries as Republican candidates gained strength in the county.

This suggests that the level of crossover voting claimed by Covey’s campaign is neither an outlier nor demonstrative of an organized effort by Phelan to recruit Democratic primary voters to carry him to victory. Jefferson Co. has a demonstrated history of crossover voting, including in years in which Phelan was neither House speaker nor opposed for renomination. 

Also, keep in mind that this particular claim of a “stolen” election does not hinge on allegations of illegally cast votes. This one hinges on legally cast votes from Texans that some would prefer not be able to cast them.

Pre-Runoff Review

By Jeff Blaylock – Founder & Senior Editor

MAY. 15, 2024

Early voting for the primary runoff election begins Monday. Unlike the primary election, the runoff is always a head-to-head matchup. For the candidates, winning hinges more on turning out more of your original voters than it does on winning over others’ voters (or non-voters).

Nine incumbent legislators – eight Republicans and one Democrat – were forced into runoffs in their efforts to keep their seats. They will need to buck history to do so.

Since 1996, just 10 of 38 incumbent legislators forced into runoffs prevailed (26%), including a history-bucking three out of four in 2022. All 10 of those victorious incumbents finished in first place in their respective primary elections. Only two of the nine incumbents forced into runoffs this year finished first: Reps. Stephanie Klick and Gary VanDeaver.

The other seven, including Speaker Dade Phelan, finished in second place in their respective primaries. No incumbent legislator who finished in second place in their primary has won a runoff since 1992, when Sen. John Whitmire eked out a 52%-48% victory after finishing second to Roman Martinez by 2.7 percentage points in the primary.

Speaker Phelan risks becoming the first sitting House Speaker to be ousted in a primary or primary runoff since Speaker Rayford Price lost the 1972 Democratic runoff to Rep. Fred Head, a member of the “Dirty Thirty” who had been paired the Speaker in redistricting. Like Phelan, Price finished second in the three-way primary election. (Incidentally, then-former Speaker Gus Mutscher, who had already resigned the speakership following a bribery conspiracy conviction, lost his Democratic runoff to Latham Boone III).

These defeats arose from strong voter unrest in the aftermath of the Sharpstown Scandal, which resulted in the outright defeat of 14 House incumbents in the primary. Another 16 House incumbents were forced into runoffs. Ten were defeated. An Associated Press article from June 5, 1972, noted “As the sun rose Sunday, all the politicians even remotely connected with the Sharpstown scandals were in eclipse.”

One stunning aspect of 2024’s tumultuous Republican primary and runoff is that there is no such scandal. Instead, the carnage has been largely driven by voters’ reactions to two votes: impeaching Attorney General Paxton toward the end of the regular session and rejecting school choice (or vouchers, depending on your perspective) in a recent special session.

A second stunning aspect of the 2024 primary season is the active involvement of the governor to oust incumbents of his own party. In 1972, then-Gov. Preston Smith had to focus on his own re-election (He lost.). This year, Gov. Abbott is not on the ballot, allowing him to use his formidable war chest to influence primary elections. Abbott spent around $6M to aid Republican primary challengers before the March primary. Early next week, we should know how much more Abbott has spent to defeat incumbents.

But there is one other similarity between 1972 and 2024. In both elections, the incumbents tended to be, or be portrayed as, centrists as the faced challenges from staunch liberals (1972) or the more staunchly conservative Republicans (2024). Each election captures a decisive left- (1972) or right-ward (2024) movement of primary voters.

The Democratic primary electorate remained much more liberal even as the overall electorate grew more conservative. The last Democratic presidential nominee to win Texas was Jimmy Carter in 1976. Two years later, Bill Clements became the first Republican governor since Reconstruction. No Democrat has won statewide since 1994.

As they say in any investment fund ad, past performance does not imply future returns. One could read too much into the historical similarities, and trajectories, arising from a centrist purge in a party’s primary election. But historical patterns are patterns for a reason. In the micro-level, we will see if longtime trends hold with respect to incumbent legislators forced into runoffs. The macro-level will take longer – it always does.

Sharpstown proved a seminal moment in Texas politics. Will the ultimately unsuccessful effort to remove Paxton from office prove to be another?

By Jeff Blaylock – Founder & Senior Editor

MAR. 11 2024

Endangered Incumbents

Incumbents were more than endangered, it turns out. A record nine Republican incumbents fell on Tuesday. Another eight Republicans and one Democrat were forced into runoffs. Coming into this year, only a single Democrat and no Republican incumbents had lost re-election bids in a March primary in the prior two election cycles.

Reps. Steve Allison, Ernest Bailes, Travis Clardy, Jill Dutton, Jacey Jetton, Glenn Rogers, Hugh Shine, Reggie Smith and Kronda Thimesch – all Republicans – were defeated. Speaker Phelan and Republican Reps. DeWayne Burns, Frederick Frazier, Justin Holland, Stephanie Klick, John Kuempel, Lynn Stucky and Gary VanDeaver were forced into runoffs, as was Democratic Rep. Shawn Thierry.

A record 21 House incumbents – 16 Republicans, 5 Democrats – faced multiple primary challengers this cycle. Eight won outright, nine were forced into runoffs and four lost outright. Half the eight winners were Democrats, and all four of the outright losses were suffered by Republicans.

More losses should be expected. Since 1996, just 10 of 38 incumbent legislators forced into runoffs prevailed (26%), including a history-bucking three out of four in 2022. All 10 of those victorious incumbents finished in first place in their respective primary elections. Only two of the nine incumbents forced into runoffs this year finished first: Reps. Stephanie Klick and Gary VanDeaver.

The other seven, including Speaker Phelan, finished in second place. No incumbent legislator who finished in second place in their primary has won a runoff since 1992, when Sen. John Whitmire eked out a 52%-48% victory after finishing second to Roman Martinez by 2.7 percentage points in the primary.

As we have noted previously, this year felt different, at least for Republicans. In prior cycles, Republican primary challengers typically branded the incumbents as RINOs or otherwise insufficiently conservative. This year, there were two specific issues – two specific votes, actually – that seem to be driving many of the challenges. Voting to impeach AG Ken Paxton drew the ire of the conservative base. Voting to remove school choice provisions from an education bill in November drew the ire of Gov. Greg Abbott, who spent more than $6M trying to defeat them.

Seven of the Abbott-backed challengers prevailed, and five more forced runoffs. Just two – Reps. Drew Darby and Stan Lambert – successfully won renomination. Paxton, who cast a broader net with fewer resources to bear, saw seven of his challengers win and seven more force runoffs. Paxton also scored a sweep of the Court of Criminal Appeals primaries. Impeachment wasn’t the issue for the judges – it was their ruling that Paxton’s office lacked original jurisdiction to prosecute election law criminal cases.

Incumbent Legislators Defeated in Primary Elections, 1996-2024

Dueling Endorsements

In at least 18 House races, Abbott and Paxton endorsed different candidates. Abbott, backing mostly incumbents here, prevailed over Paxton in 15 races. Paxton prevailed in two, and each claimed a runoff candidate in the remaining race. In at least four races, they both backed the same challengers, and each prevailed.

By Jeff Blaylock – Founder & Senior Editor

JAN. 5, 2023

If it seems to you like more Republican House incumbents are facing multiple primary challengers (MPCs), then your perceptive powers are accurate. This cycle, 16 House Republicans are facing MPCs. This is the most in any election cycle in state history, breaking the previous record of 11 set in 2022.*

The 2022 and 2024 cycles are the only two to have double-digit incumbent House Republicans facing MPCs and only the third since at least 1996 to have at least 10 MPC races against all incumbent representatives (2018 had 10.).

The vast majority of Texas House seats are effectively decided in the primary because the current redistricting map created precious few competitive seats. The choice for voters, then, is not between parties, but instead which kind of Republican in red districts or Democrat in blue districts will represent me. 

Beginning with the 2008 cycle, the bulk of intra-party conflict involving MPCs has occurred in the Republican primary. Of the 53 House incumbents facing MPCs, 40 of them were Republicans (75%). This year, 16 of the 20 are Republicans (80%). By contrast, only four House Democrats, all members of the Texas Legislative Black Caucus, face MPCs. 

Since 2008, House incumbents facing MPCs have won 30 of their primary races outright (without a runoff), and another 21 were forced into runoffs. Only two – Democrats Naomi Gonzalez (2014) and Dawnna Dukes (2018) – finished third or lower in the primary. Runoffs have not generally been kind to incumbents, but they aren’t death sentences, either. Incumbents have won seven of the 21 runoffs MPCs have forced them into (33%). Overall, the incumbents have won renomination, either in the primary or runoff, in 70% of the time they had MPCs.

In prior cycles, the challengers typically branded the incumbents as RINOs or campaigned to their right, claiming the incumbents were insufficiently conservative. This year, there are two specific issues – two specific votes, actually – that seem to be driving many of the challenges. Every one of the 16 House Republicans facing MPCs voted to impeach Ken Paxton and half of them voted for retiring Rep. John Raney’s amendment removing school choice provisions from the education bill during a November special session.

The January semi-annual reports and, perhaps more so, the 30-day-out reports will provide more insight into which challengers have leveraged Paxton’s and/or Abbott’s endorsements into the cash and in-kind resources needed to oust an incumbent.

*For purposes of this analysis, we ignored the Senate, where incumbents rarely face a serious challenge, and Congress, where MPCs are a pretty common and highly unsuccessful occurrence.*