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Special 8 Day Out Update

November 01, 2023

The special election for the Texas State House District 2, scheduled for November 2nd, is in the spotlight with the release of the latest 8-day-out campaign finance reports by the Texas Ethics Commission. These reports, covering the period from September 29th to October 28th, reveal the financial landscape of the race.

Jill Dutton, an administrative director from Ben Wheeler, emerges as the fundraising frontrunner with $235,000 in contributions. A substantial share of her support comes from Texans for Lawsuit Reform and the Associated Republicans of Texas, contributing $85,000 and $126,000, respectively, accounting for nearly 90% of her total contributions during this period. Adding to her campaign’s momentum, Dutton has launched an attack ad against her opponent Brent Money and secured an endorsement from former Governor Rick Perry on the 30th.

Brent Money, a Greenville attorney, has raised $59,000, with the Defend Texas Liberty PAC being a significant contributor, donating $35,000—59% of his total contributions for this period. However, donations from other expected conservative backers have been relatively modest. Heath Hyde, a Sulphur Springs attorney, holds the third spot in fundraising with $57,000 in contributions, with the Texas Farm Bureau AGFUND as his primary donor, contributing $30,000, which is 53% of his total contributions.

Hyde has overtaken Doug Roszhart, a retired Greenville engineer and Hunt County Republican chair, who has raised $26,000. Hyde’s expenditures stand at $43,000.Kristen Washington, the lone Democrat in the race, has received a modest $3,700 in contributions. When it comes to campaign spending, Dutton and Money lead the race, having expended $104,000 and $112,000, respectively. At this point, we expect a runoff between Dutton and Money.

Texas Election Source Product Re-launch: Bridging Political Data with Upcoming AI Capabilities

October 30, 2023

Texas Election Source Unveils Product Re-launch: Bridging Political Data with Upcoming AI Capabilities

[Austin, 10/31/23] – Celebrating a decade of distinguished service in the realm of Texas politics and campaign analysis, Texas Election Source proudly announces its enhanced re-launch. While artificial intelligence integration is on the horizon, the platform continues to remain a beacon for data-driven political insights.

By intertwining intricate campaign data with prospective AI capabilities, Texas Election Source is set to redefine the tools available to government relations professionals. This advancement ensures subscribers can seamlessly navigate campaign data.

With the campaign fervor building up, our team is ardently working on perfecting AI tools tailored for the impending Legislative Session, empowering our subscribers with campaign knowledge. For those with a passion for diving deep into the intricacies of Texas politics and seeking the best-in-class tools, Texas Election Source remains your trusted partner.

About Texas Election Source:

Launching in November 2013, Texas Election Source quickly rose to prominence as the gold standard for Texas political data and news insights, backed by a loyal subscriber base. We’re committed to providing sharp, data-informed perspectives on the dynamic landscape of Texas politics and campaigns. By constantly innovating in political data, we design state-of-the-art tools primed to maximize the efforts of government relations professionals. As campaign season begins, our subscribers can look forward to enhanced, transformative political tools, with the addition of AI-driven capabilities for the upcoming Legislative Session.

Press Contact:

Laura Carr

Head of Business Development

[email protected]

HD 2 Special Election Update

October 30, 2023

Six candidates are vying in a special election to fill the unexpired term of former Rep. Bryan Slaton (R-Royse City).

As of Sept. 29, Ben Wheeler administrative director Jill Dutton ($142K) and Greenville attorney Brent Money ($129K) had out-raised the field, and they were also the top two spenders as of that date (Dutton $111K, Money $63K). Sulphur Springs attorney Heath Hyde was third in contributions ($52K) and fourth in expenditures ($33K), narrowly edged out by retired Greenville engineer and Hunt Co. Republican chair Doug Roszhart ($36K).

Money has the backing of Texas Right to Life PAC, True Texas Project, Texas Gun Owners of America, and several current and former lawmakers including former Sen. Don Huffines (R-Dallas) and Sen. Bob Hall (R-Edgewood). The Defend Texas Liberty PAC recently sent a mail piece to potential primary voters accusing Dutton of fundraising from donors to former Democratic gubernatorial nominee Beto O’Rourke. Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R) has also endorsed Money, who was a vocal critic of his impeachment.

Dutton has been endorsed by Associated Republicans of Texas PAC, Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC, and Texas Alliance for Life PAC. Hyde has been endorsed by Texas Farm Bureau AGFUND and Texas Parent PAC.

The candidates’ 8-day-out campaign finance reports should provide more clarity on the race, including the level of financial support from the conservative groups endorsing Money. These reports, which disclose contributions received and expenditures made between Sept. 29 and Oct. 28, were due Monday and should be available online the next day.

We expect the race will go to a runoff, likely between Dutton and Money. Former Greenville council member Kristen Washington, the lone Democrat in the race, could conceivably edge out one of the Republicans to make the runoff. In the 2022 general election, O’Rourke received 21% of the vote head-to-head against Gov. Greg Abbott (R) in the district.

Slaton resigned in May ahead of a unanimous House vote to expel him, marking the first time a member had been expelled from the Legislature since 1927.

Texas Election Source Is Returning with New Partners

August 31, 2023

AUSTIN, Texas – [August 31, 2023] – Texas Election Source is returning under new ownership. Laura Carr and Eric Davis have partnered with Jeff Blaylock, Founder and original Publisher of Texas Election Source, to leverage the power of artificial intelligence in developing tools that will revolutionize the day-to-day activities of political professionals. Texas Election Sources team of AI engineers are currently developing new features that expand the scope of the original Texas Election Source. The Texas Election Source team will be reaching out directly to key former subscribers to establish direct lines of communication to gather feedback on the future direction of the company. The version one platform is projected to launch in October for users to subscribe.

Meet Laura Carr: Laura Carr brings a blend of Texas grit and D.C. finesse to her new role at Texas Election Source. Laura began her political career in Washington, D.C., working in various policy and communication roles for legislative offices in both the House and Senate on Capitol Hill. Laura later worked in fundraising at The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and No Labels—a bipartisan nonprofit dedicated to finding common-ground solutions. Laura returned to the Lone Star State, where she served in the Office of the Texas Governor, later making a notable impact as the Government Relations Director at The Brannan Firm—a prestigious firm ranked at the top of Capitol Inside’s Texas Lobby Power Rankings. Today, Laura serves as Policy Director specializing in technology policy in the Texas Senate. As Head of Business Development for Texas Election Source, Laura will be acting as a liaison between new and previous customers.

Meet Eric Davis: A seasoned visionary in the realm of go-to-market strategy. Eric Davis is renowned for his expertise in tech companies in Silicon Valley. Eric’s most distinguished accomplishment lies in his role at Prodigy Software, where he led revenue generation and masterminded the strategic blueprint from the company’s inception to its $100 million acquisition by Upstart Holdings. Beyond his tenure at Prodigy, Eric has continued to contribute to the tech landscape by actively investing in and advising numerous companies at the forefront of introducing new technology into the tech industry, including cutting-edge AI tech. Eric’s understanding of AI and the intricacies of go-to-market strategies brought him the opportunity to work within the underserved realm of Texas politics. As CEO, he is going to use his tech connections and understanding to create game-changing technology for Texas Election Source.

About Texas Election Source: Texas Election Source is a subscriber-supported software and news service that provides an authoritative, data-driven perspective on Texas politics and campaigns since November 2013. Texas Election Source offers one of the most accurate and comprehensive tools for understanding Texas elections, focusing on key races and the political climate, and has become a relied-upon resource for political professionals seeking unbiased insights. Texas Election Source maintains non-partisanship and independence from any candidate or interest group, empowering subscribers to make informed decisions in the political arena. Its new ownership is committed to ensuring its legacy as an unrivaled resource for understanding Texas politics.

For media inquiries and more information, please contact: Laura Carr – Head of Business Development Texas Election Source – [email protected]

Texas Election Source Ending Its 10-year Run

December 21, 2022

Ten years ago, I set out to make my readers the smartest people in their political crowd. My approach was to combine comprehensive election data, campaign finance figures and candidate news with the insights I’ve built over more than three decades of observing Texas politics.

I wanted to look beyond the typical two-year campaign window to identify long-term trends and apply them to the next election. I sought to weed through the noise of numbers and report on only those that were truly important to understanding what happened, what’s happening and what may happen next. And I wanted to do this as objectively and insightfully as possible.

After every general election, I decide whether I will commit myself to putting in the thousands of hours of work necessary to deliver news and analysis at the level of quality I expect from myself. In the past, that answer has been “yes.” This time, I have decided not to continue for the 2023-24 election cycle.

Many reasons and circumstances contributed to this decision, but the biggest is simply this: I’m ready to redirect my energies into new endeavors.

Publication of Texas Election Source will end next week. All outstanding subscription balances will be rebated or otherwise distributed as directed by the subscriber (More details will be forthcoming). Our website will remain up, so access to the archives and existing Crib Sheets will continue for the foreseeable future. Regular emails will cease, but any new content on the site will be sent via email as before.

I will remain on Twitter at @TXElects so long as Twitter remains a viable platform to share election and political news, though my activity there will be reduced. Contact information will remain the same.

Thank you to all the friends, professionals and political junkies who have been a part of this journey, especially those who have been with me from the beginning. You were willing to take a chance on me as Texas Election Source evolved from a crazy idea to an emailed PDF attachment to the fully digital product it is today. I am honored to have earned your faith, trust and business. I appreciate you immensely. And I hope we succeeded in making you the smartest person in the room.

This chapter of Texas Election Source is ending, but a new chapter may one day begin. If years of rummaging through data and observing trends have taught me anything, it’s that nothing in politics is permanent. For now, I will simply say thank you for being a Texas Election Source subscriber!

Poll: Election Denialism Remains High Among Republicans

December 19, 2022

A third of Texas registered voters continue to believe President Biden did not “legitimately” win the 2020 presidential election, according to the latest Univ. of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll. Three out of five Republicans do not believe Biden won the election “legitimately” and another 16% are unsure – leaving just 24% who accept the results as legitimate.

No credible evidence supports former President Trump’s fantasy that the 2020 presidential election was somehow stolen from him. Yet, that fantasy persists.

Election denialism is more prevalent among older voters than younger ones:

Aged 65 and older – 46% believe Biden was legitimately elected, 43% do not
Aged 45-64 – 51% believe the election was legitimate, 38% do not
Aged 30-44 – 62% believe the election was legitimate, 28% do not; and
Aged 18-29 – 75% believe the election was legitimate, 10% do not.

Rural voters are more likely to believe Biden’s win was illegitimate (48%) than legitimate (38%), while suburban voters are more inclined to believe its legitimacy (55%) than not (33%).

Most Republicans (59%) do not believe U.S. election results are accurate – 26% believe they are “very inaccurate” – but just 19% of Republicans believe Texas election results are inaccurate. Only 1 in 25 Republicans believe Texas results are “very inaccurate.”

Encouragingly, election denialism has declined, slightly, since the UT/TPP poll conducted shortly after Biden’s inauguration. In that poll, 43% of Texans thought U.S. election results were either somewhat (13%) or very (30%) inaccurate. In the latest poll, the percent of Texans believing U.S. results are very inaccurate has fallen by half to 15%, with much of that difference shifting to somewhat inaccurate (+6%) and somewhat accurate (+11%).

Discouragingly, election denialism has increased since right before the general election. In its October poll, UT/TPP found just 24% of Texans believed U.S. election results were either somewhat (15%) or very (6%) inaccurate.

Faith in Texas election results has remained steady over the past two years.

The poll found fairly divided assessments on job approvals, most of which have held steady for at least two years:

Greg Abbott’s job approval: 49/41 (24/34 strongly)
Gov. Dan Patrick’s job approval: 43/36 (19/31 strongly)
Gen. Ken Paxton’s job approval: 41/37 (19/31 strongly)
U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz’s job approval: 44/44 (25/36 strongly)
U.S. Sen. John Cornyn’s job approval: 35/40 (13/25 strongly)
Biden favorability: 40/49 (17/43 very)
Trump favorability: 42/48 (20/39 very)

Biden’s net favorability rating of -9 represents the least underwater he has been since his presidential campaign began in 2020.

Looking ahead at the 2024 primary, five out of six Republicans either strongly (53%) or somewhat (30%) approve of Cruz’s job performance. Just 9% of Republicans disapprove (3% strongly). Seven out of 10 “extremely” conservative voters strongly approve Cruz’s job performance.

The poll of 1,200 self-declared RVs was in the field December 2-11 and has a stated margin of error of ±2.89% for the full sample.

‘Audit’ Highlights Irregularities in Dallas, Harris Cos.; Praises Collin, Tarrant Cos.

December 19, 2022

The Secretary of State’s office released its “Final Report on Audit of 2020 General Election in Texas.” Over the course of 359 pages, the report details “very serious issues” with Harris Co. and “two large problems” with Dallas Co.’s election administration while lauding Tarrant Co. for its “quality, transparent election” and Collin Co. as “the model of how to run elections in Texas.” It also identifies “data inconsistencies” from the four counties it audited, noting that such “inconsistencies, even with valid reasons, weaken the public’s confidence that the election was run properly.”

Indeed, that appears to be the point: highlighting inconsistencies, especially in Democrat-run counties, with a very real outcome being weakened public confidence in elections in those counties.

The report states that “elections are trustworthy” when the Election Code and local procedures are followed. “As outlined in this report, in cases where procedures were not followed, discrepancies and irregularities ranging from small to large ensued.” At no point does the report question the outcome of the election, but that wasn’t its purpose, nor should its findings have led to that conclusion. However, the implication is clear: Republican-run counties run trustworthy elections, while Democrat-run counties do not.

“Texas has sone of the strongest and most effective transparency measures in the country when it comes to administering and auditing elections,” said Secretary of State John Scott, who is leaving the office at the end of the year. “The Texas forensic election audit – which is, by far, the largest undertaken in the nation to date – demonstrates how these measures can and should be used to make sure Texas voters can have confidence in the outcome of any given election, as well as which areas counties need to address to restore confidence going forward.”

Several findings can be easily sensationalized while any “valid reasons” for them are left in the details of the report. The first two findings under Harris Co. implicate more than 300K vote records from mobile ballot boxes, which is a much easier to understand talking point than the jargon-heavy discussions of those findings or Harris Co.’s explanation.

As to the latter, the Harris Co. election office issued a statement saying the staff followed the processes created by Hart InterCivic to ensure accurate counting of “stranded” votes. While much shorter in length, it too is jargon-heavy and difficult for the general public to understand.

The audit report presents information objectively, highlighting what the Secretary of State office’s team found during its lengthy work. The issue is not their work, thoroughness, dedication or documentation. The issue is the inevitable use of those findings, stripped from their pages of details and any responses from the counties, to continue to undermine confidence in elections by those who benefit from doing so.

In its entirety, the report should be considered further evidence that the 2020 election in Texas was secure, accurate and trustworthy. However, it doesn’t say that.

The report says elections are trustworthy when procedures are followed, and here are examples of procedures that weren’t followed. Most of them occurred in Harris and Dallas Cos. The elections run by Collin and Tarrant Cos., while not flawless, were by contrast models of transparency and quality. The implication is elections held by the other two counties are not trustworthy even though the report itself does not reach that conclusion.

Turnout Data Suggest Texas Ranks 39th

December 18, 2022

Based on preliminary and largely unofficial election results, Texas ranked 39^th in turnout, calculated as percent of the voting-eligible population casting ballots for the top office on the ballot. With just over 8.1M votes cast, 42.5% of the estimated 19.1M voting-eligible Texans voted.

It is the state’s highest ranking since at least 2002 and represents a slight uptick from 41^st place, which was the state’s ranking in 2018.

SD27: A recount confirmed Sen.-elect Morgan LaMantia’s (D-McAllen) narrow victory over Adam Hinojosa (R).

El Paso: Rep. Art Fierro (D-El Paso) won the runoff over incumbent council member Claudia Rodriguez by more than 300 votes. Roughly 14,500 fewer people voted in the runoff than in the general election, which saw Rodriguez finish first by more than 2K over Fierro. Chris Canales and Brian Kennedy won open seat runoffs.

Fierro lost his House re-election bid in the March primary, falling to Rep. Lina Ortega (D-El Paso) in the only race between paired incumbents.

Laredo: Victor Treviño defeated former council member Mercurio Martinez, 54%-46%, to win the mayoral runoff. Gilbert Gonzalez and Tyler King won open seat runoffs. Gonzalez is the brother of council member Jesse Gonzalez, who he replaces on the council.

Watson, the Once and Future Mayor, Defeats Israel

December 13, 2022

Former Mayor and former Sen. Kirk Watson (D-Austin) won Austin’s mayoral runoff, 50.4%-49.6%, over Rep. Celia Israel (D-Austin), a margin of 886 votes.

Watson’s margin of victory came from the pockets of Austin outside Travis Co. He received 62% of the nearly 3,600 votes cast in Williamson Co., and he received 27 of the 32 votes cast in Hays Co. Combined, those two counties gave Watson a 903-vote advantage. Israel narrowly carried Travis Co., receiving 50.01% of the 110K votes cast there – a margin of 17 votes.

Three council seat runoffs resulted in the elections of Ryan Alter (60%), Zo Qadri (51%) and José Velásquez (53%) to open seats. Turnout was around 18% of registered voters.

In Corpus Christi, council member Roland Barrera (51%) won re-election by 53 votes. Former council member Everett Roy defeated incumbent Billy Lerma by 51 votes (51.6%-48.4%). Former council member Mark Scott was not so fortunate, losing to Sylvia Campos by 33 votes (51.6%-48.5%). Turnout was south of 7.5% of registered voters.

RRC: Comm. Christi Craddick (R) was elected chair by her colleagues. Customarily, the chair rotates every two years, and Craddick is up for re-election in 2024.

Leadership: House Democrats elected Rep. Trey Martinez Fischer (D-San Antonio) to lead the caucus. He succeeds Rep. Chris Turner (D-Grand Prairie), who did not seek leadership of the caucus this session. Rep. Victoria Neave (D-Dallas) was elected chair of the Mexican American Legislative Caucus.

Campaign Finance: Late last week, federal candidates on the November ballot filed their post-general campaign finance reports. These reports disclosed contributions received and expenditures made between Oct. 20 and Nov. 28. Collectively, federal candidates raised $7.5M and spent $9.6M for the period. Our Crib Sheets have been updated.

These reports generally do not attract much interest since the elections are over, and the candidates are generally beginning to refill their campaign war chests heading into the new Congress. However, there were some figures worth noting.

Around 30% of contributions and expenditures for the period went to three races:

In CD28, U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) was out-raised, $759K to $258K, and outspent, $882K to $406K, by challenger Cassy Garcia (R).
In CD15, Michelle Vallejo (D) out-raised U.S. Rep. Elect Monica De la Cruz-Hernandez (R-Alamo), $396K to $342K, but was outspent, $832K to $521K.
S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Houston) raised just over $500K for the period – more than any other incumbent – and spent $235K. His Democratic opponent raised $7K and spent $21K.

Crenshaw’s haul brought his contribution total for the election cycle to $15.3M, and he spent $14.6M. Crenshaw received 74% of the vote in the March primary and 66% of the vote in the general election.

Nine members and members-elect ended the period with at least $1M on hand:

$5.23M – U.S. Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin)
$2.03M – U.S. Rep.-elect Wesley Hunt (R-Houston)
$2.01M – U.S. Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas)
$1.78M – Crenshaw
$1.44M – U.S. Rep. August Pfluger (R-San Angelo)
$1.43M – U.S. Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Lubbock)
$1.39M – U.S. Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D-Houston)
$1.29M – U.S. Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin)
$1.23M – U.S. Rep. Beth Van Duyne (R-Irving)

Just missing the cut were U.S. Rep.-elect Morgan Luttrell (R-Houston) with $988K, U.S. Rep. Brian Babin (R-Woodville) with $936K and U.S. Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-Amarillo) with $895K. As of the end of October, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) had $3.25M on hand, and U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R) had $1.45M on hand.

For many filers, this report ends the election cycle, and funds raised before the end of the year count toward the next cycle. We use the end of the calendar year as the end of the campaign cycle, so we will also count the candidates’ year-end reports as part of this cycle, consistent with how we handle state candidates.

Abbott Taps Nelson for Secretary of State

December 06, 2022

Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will nominate Sen. Jane Nelson (R-Flower Mound) to become the state’s 115^th Secretary of State.

“Senator Nelson’s lifelong commitment to public service and deep understanding of state government will be assets in her new role ensuring the critical duties of Secretary of State are fulfilled,” Abbott said in a statement. “Nothing is more important to a free society than fair elections, and the State of Texas will continue working to uphold and protect this right.”

Nelson said in a statement that she was looking forward to a “new chapter” in her public service. “Voters expect fair elections with accurate, timely results, and I am committed to making that happen,” she said. “Texans with all political views should have faith in our election system.”

Nelson, who did not seek re-election this year, has served in the Senate since 1993 and should have little difficulty being confirmed by her colleagues. The last three Secretaries of State – David Whitley, Ruth Hughs and John Scott – were not confirmed by the Senate. Whitley and Hughs resigned after failing to receive Senate confirmation, and Scott is resigning before the Senate next convenes.