HD8: Cook Faces Toughest Challenge to Date

Rep. Byron Cook (R-Corsicana) was a key figure in the sudden rise of Rep. Joe Straus (R-San Antonio) to the speakership. Cook hosted the meeting of the “Gang of 11” that ultimately selected Straus as their alternative to then-Speaker Tom Craddick (R-Midland), the first Republican Speaker since Reconstruction. Within a couple of days, Craddick conceded the gavel, and Straus was unanimously elected Speaker when the Legislature convened a week later.

Straus has been re-elected three times since, turning back conservative challengers Bryan Hughes (R-Mineola) and David Simpson (R-Longview) without a vote in 2013 and defeating Rep. Scott Turner (R-Frisco) in a record vote, 128-19, in 2015. None of those three challengers will serve in the House next session (Hughes and Simpson are running against each other for SD1; Turner did not seek re-election.).

For this and other actions, Cook has drawn the ire of grassroots conservative groups such as Empower Texans, which said last week that his “record in office is so bad that at times it seems unbelievable,” and Texas Right to Life, which called Cook’s record “dismal.”

Cook has faced at least one primary opponent in three of the last four cycles, but his vote percentage has declined each time, falling from 69% in 2008 to 62% in 2012 to 59% in 2014. This year, he faces his strongest challenger to date in Corsicana businessman Thomas McNutt. Cook’s two primary opponents in 2014 raised less than $18K between them. As of December 31, McNutt has raised $268K.

Cook entered 2016 with a more than $500K advantage in cash on hand. We expect Cook will continue to out-raise, and be able to out-spend, McNutt. However, in the 2014 primaries, 24 candidates with smaller total contributions defeated, or advanced to runoffs over, better-funded candidates.

McNutt has the nominal advantage in contributions from district zip codes, $57K to $45K, but nearly $23K of McNutt’s total comes from family members. Cook has received a $2K donation from a family member in the district. Backing those donations out, Cook holds a $43K to $34K advantage in total contributions from district zip codes. However, McNutt holds the advantage in number of small donors within the district, 143-94 (For purposes of this analysis, a small donor is an individual who contributes $1,000 or less, in aggregate, during the campaign cycle.). Among small donors from Corsicana, McNutt leads, 84-57.

Cook has faced an opponent from Navarro Co. in each of the last three contested primaries, all three times being Bobby Vickery, a former Frost ISD trustee. Vickery’s share of the Navarro Co. vote rose each time, from 26% in 2008 to 41% in 2012 to 44% in 2014. Cook’s margin of victor in his home county has shrunk from 1,657 votes in 2008 to 1,022 in 2012 to 345 in 2014.

Rep. Byron Cook’s Share of Contested Primary Vote by County

ANDERSON CO.

FREESTONE CO.

HILL CO.

NAVARRO CO.

Note: Limestone Co. was part of HD8 for the 2002 and 2008 elections. Cook received 76% of the vote there in 2008. In 2002, both of his opponents were from that county, and Cook received 11% against them.

Navarro Co. represented more than a third of 2012 primary voters, making it the largest bloc of voters. Two years later, Navarro Co. accounted for a quarter of primary voters, third behind Anderson (32%) and Hill (30%) Cos. Cook’s vote percentage in those two counties was stable from 2008 to 2014 (2012 to 2014 for Hill Co.).

In recent Republican primaries, HD8 voters have tended to prefer moderate officeholders and candidates over candidates favored by grassroots conservative and Tea Party groups. In 2012, David Dewhurst received twice as many votes as Ted Cruz in the primary for U.S Senate, and Dewhurst won the district in the runoff, 52%-48%, even as turnout dropped by 30%.

In the 2014 primary for attorney general, then-Sen. Ken Paxton narrowly edged out then-Rep. Dan Branch by just 233 votes. Paxton won the runoff in HD8, 63%-37%, as turnout dropped 66%.

McNutt’s cause would be greatly helped by the presence of a third (or fourth) candidate, which could have forced the race into a runoff. HD8 runoff voters tend, as a group, to be more conservative than primary voters. Instead, McNutt must win a head-to-head battle in a higher turnout arena. Republican primary turnout is expected to be high, likely a record high, not only because of an unsettled presidential nomination but also because of numerous contested races for county offices.

Local Contested Primary Races

Our expectation is that higher turnout would help Cook, particularly as general election voters – who have been voting for him for more than a decade now – participate in the primary election. However, it is not clear that “new” voters drawn principally by the presidential campaigns will, in fact, be more moderate than regular primary voters, particularly as frontrunners Ted Cruz and Donald Trump continue to rail against “the establishment,” which would include Cook and other local incumbents.

We will take another look at this race before the primary election.