Lake Dallas insurance and financial services businessman Read King held longtime incumbent Rep. Myra Crownover (R-Denton) under 55% in the 2014 primary. She did not run for re-election, while King pressed forward with another run. In the 2016 primary, King received more votes (6,236) than Crownover did in in 2014 (6,058), but his share of the record turnout vote fell from 45% to 30% against a pair of opponents. He finished second to Sanger veterinarian and former Sanger ISD board president Lynn Stucky (42%).

In 2014, King won 10 precincts against an incumbent. In 2016, King received the most votes in 3 precincts, winning none of them outright.

Sanger represents a single precinct in HD64, and Stucky received 64% of the vote there. King was third with 14%. Likewise, Lake Dallas represents a single precinct, and Stucky also finished first there, edging out King 37%-32%. King received 7 more votes than third-place finisher Rick Hagen in King’s home precinct. Denton comprised 62% of the HD64 vote in the primary. Stucky received 2,538 more votes there than King.

Entering the primary, King had financial advantages over Stucky. Entering the runoff, those advantages have flipped. Stucky received more contributions ($131K to $26K), spent more money ($112K to $21K) and has more on hand ($32K to $5K).

Lynn Stucky

hd64_stucky

Campaign Finance Summary

$32,006 – Cash on Hand

$131,314 – Contributions (2/21-5/14)
$111,711 – Expenditures (2/21-5/14)

$224,728 – Total Contributions (2015-16)
$197,091 – Total Expenditures (2015-16)

$20,100 – Loan Principal

Geographic Sources of Contributions

$102,516 – Austin (46%)
$39,599 – Denton (18%)
$15,000 – San Antonio (7%)
$10,750 – Waco (5%)
$10,575 – Sanger (5%)
$6,400 – Argyle (3%)

$34,010 – Rest of Texas (15%)

$5,878 – Outside Texas (3%)

District Zip Codes

$69,924 – District Zip Codes (31%)
$451 – Average Contribution from District
126 donors in district zip codes giving $1K or less

$154,804 – Outside District (69%)

Top Contributors

$24,100 – Veterinary PAC

$19,461 – Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC

$15,000 – Charles Butt

$14,500 – Texas Medical Assoc. TEXPAC

$10,000 – Glenn Hulcher, Texas Farm Bureau AGFUND

$9,461 – Associated Republicans of Texas

$5,500 – Texas Parent PAC

$5,240 – Texas Assoc. of Realtors TREPAC

$5,000 – Jennifer Hulcher, Linda McNatt

$3,000 – Jay Harris

$2,800 – Lisa Basich

$2,500 – Texas Ophthalmological Assoc. EYE-PAC

Read King

hd64_king

Campaign Finance Summary

$5,169 – Cash on Hand

$25,707 – Contributions (2/21-5/14)
$21,316 – Expenditures (2/21-5/14)

$172,281 – Total Contributions (2015-16)
$112,235 – Total Expenditures (2015-16)

$0 – Loan Principal

Geographic Sources of Contributions

$45,317 – Midland (27%)
$30,600 – Austin (18%)
$25,850 – Flower Mound (15%)
$15,762 – Denton (9%)
$13,725 – Houston (8%)
$12,600 – Bedford (7%)

$24,292 – Rest of Texas (5%)

$2,035 – Outside Texas (1%)

District Zip Codes

$17,499 – District Zip Codes (10%)
$250 – Average Contribution from District
53 donors in district zip codes giving $1K or less

$152,682 – Outside District (90%)

Top Contributors

$42,817 – Constituents Focus PAC

$30,000 – Empower Texans PAC

$25,000 – Darlene Pendery

$12,200 – Jay Harris

$12,000 – Rep. Jonathan Stickland

$7,500 – Mayes Middleton

$5,000 – Texas Right to Life PAC

$2,500 – Kyle Stallings

$2,246 – NE Tarrant Tea Party PAC

$2,000 – Monty Bennett

Conservative groups opposed to Speaker Joe Straus and their top donors have provided more than 60% of King’s contributions, yet they were almost entirely absent from his runoff report. Texas Right to Life PAC ($5K) and Houston attorney Mayes Middleon ($2.5K) were, generally speaking, the only such groups and donors who gave to King since the primary. King received support from a significant number of small donors connected to or by those (or other Tea Party) groups, but most of those were outside the district.

In fact, King has raised less money from HD64 donors than he did in 2014. He has less than two dozen more small donors in the district than two years ago. Donations from outside HD64 comprised 57% of his total contributions in 2014. This year, 90% of King’s contributions have come from outside HD64. Perhaps that is why he does not appear to have gained any traction since his upstart challenge two years ago.

King’s web site lists numerous endorsements from around the state, but only a handful of local endorsements: Denton Council member Kathleen Wazny and 22 Denton Co. precinct chairs. Based on the roster of precinct chairs posted on the Denton Co. Republican Party’s web site, only four of those chairs’ precincts are in HD64. King lists a single mayor as an endorser, but his city is located in another district.

Stucky’s local endorsers include Crownover, Denton Co. Comm. Hugh Coleman, three constables and a pair of precinct chairs within the district. His site lists numerous individuals, but there is no indication how many are district residents.

The conservative district’s runoff voters tend to be a little more conservative. In the 2012 runoff, Ted Cruz received 61% of the vote against David Dewhurst. King has the endorsement of most of the state’s leading conservative groups, but their involvement in this runoff appears to be less than in others. Empower Texans PAC, King’s second largest single donor, reported spending $471K since the primary, of which around 1% was spent on HD64.

Beneficiaries of Empower Texans PAC's Runoff Contributions

$84,122 – Kyle Biedermann (HD73 challenger)

$74,901 – Dawn Buckingham (SD24 open seat)

$70,958 – Briscoe Cain (HD128 challenger)

$62,283 – Keith Strahan (HD18 open seat)

$52,763 – John Keating (HD33 open seat)

$30,000 – Young Conservatives of Texas

$28,695 – Cole Hefner (HD5 open seat)

$12,922 – Bryan Hughes (SD1 open seat)

$6,060 – Read King

Note: Expenditures attributed to benefit multiple candidates were evenly divided among them. Aside from the $30K contribution to Young Conservatives of Texas, approximately $49K in expenditures not directly attributable to legislative runoff races were excluded.

King’s largest single donor, Midland-based Constituents Focus PAC, does not appear to have spent any money since the primary.

One more trend we have observed may benefit Stucky. We expect absentee voters to have a proportionately greater influence on this year’s runoffs than in year’s past.

 

Absentee Share of Denton Co. Runoff Early Vote Through First Two Days

%

2012 Runoff

%

2014 Runoff

%

2016 Runoff

Stucky received 52% of the absentee vote in the primary, better than his share of in-person early vote (41%) or Election Day vote (43%). King received 28% of the absentee vote, which was below his performance among in-person early voters (32%) and equal to Election Day voters (28%). In 2014, King received 27% of the absentee vote, well below his in-person early vote (47%) and Election Day (48%) share.

Former U.S. House Speaker Tip O’Neill famously (and frequently) said, “All politics is local.” If that statement is true for HD64, then we give the edge to Stucky.