Freshman Rep. Lynn Stucky (R-Sanger) narrowly out-raised primary challenger Mark Roy, $109K to $85K, during the last six months of 2017. Added to the $14K he raised at the end of June, Stucky has a nearly $40K lead in total contributions for the election cycle to date. Stucky has a smaller $77K to $54K advantage in cash on hand.
Democrat Andrew Morris raised $9K and has $2K on hand. His other two Democratic rivals, Matt Farmer and Mat Pruneda, raised less than $3K combined (Farmer has suspended his canpaign and endorsed Morris). Libertarian Nich Dietrich has not filed a report. This analysis focuses on the Republicans.
Roy accepted his first contribution at the end of September, so almost all of his fundraising activity occurred during the final quarter of the year.
Stucky’s contribution total for 2017 ranks 17th among 26 Republican House incumbents in a contested primary, and his cash-on-hand total ranks 18th. Roy’s contribution total and cash-on-hand total ranks 8th among the 34 primary challengers facing a Republican House incumbent.
Roy has been endorsed by movement conservative groups including Empower Texans, Texas Home School Coalition and Texans for Vaccine Choice. Several key business groups have endorsed Stucky. This split between the business community and ideological conservatives is a common theme to recent Republican primaries.
The largest single geographic source of contributions is Austin ($82K), which has supplied more than 40% of all funds raised by the Republican candidates. Flower Mound ($36K) is second, and Roy received all of those contributions, almost all of which came from one source, retiree Darlene Pendery. Denton ($26K) is third, and Stucky received 95% of those dollars.
Stucky has raised more than 20 times the amount Roy has received from zip codes wholly or partially in the district. More than a third of Stucky’s total contributions came from district zip codes, while only 2% of Roy’s originated from the district. The gap is not as great when it comes to the number of contributions received from individuals in those zip codes. Stucky received 57 such contributions ($689 average), and Roy received 32 ($60 average).
Serving first term
$12,500 – Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC
$8,500 – Veterinary PAC
$5,240 – Texas Assoc. of Realtors TREPAC
$5,000 – Glenn Hulcher, Linda McNatt, Rural Friends of Electric Cooperatives PAC
$3,000 – Jay Harris
$2,500 – Focused Advocacy PAC, Greg Johnson, Arthur Sayre, Robert Shelton
$2,300 – Associated Republicans of Texas
$2,000 – Koch PAC, Texas Medical Assoc. TEXPAC
Retired USMC Lt. Colonel
$35,000 – Darlene Pendery
$25,000 – Empower Texans PAC
$5,000 – Michael Olcott
$3,000 – Patricia Hurst
$2,500 – Kyle Stallings
$2,000 – Ryan James
Stucky’s three largest donors – Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC ($13K), Veterinary PAC ($9K) and Texas Assoc. of Realtors TREPAC ($5K) – provided 21% of his total contributions to date. Roy’s three top givers – Pendery ($35K), Empower Texans PAC ($25K) and Mike Olcott ($5K) – represented 77% of all contributions he has received to date.
In 2016, Stucky defeated Lake Dallas insurance and financial services businessman Read King in the Republican primary runoff, 66%-34%. It was King’s second consecutive race for the seat. Two years earlier, he held longtime incumbent Rep. Myra Crownover (R-Denton) to 45% in the primary. Stucky received a little less than a third of his total contributions from district zip codes, while King received 10% of his contributions from the district.
King was endorsed by movement conservative groups, and those groups and their significant donors provided more than 60% of King’s contributions. Interestingly, those groups were largely absent from King’s runoff report. Empower Texans PAC spent nearly $400K on runoff candidates across the state, of which just $6K went to support King. He was out-raised by Stucky, $131K to $26K, between the primary and runoff.
There will be no runoff this time. The challenger’s 30-day-out report may be instructive as to the extent movement conservative groups will invest in the race. That report is due Monday.
©2018 Texas Election Source LLC