Rep. Jimmie Don Aycock (R-Killeen) opted not to seek re-election, opening the HD54 seat for the first time since 2006. Three candidates filed for the seat: Killeen Mayor and homebuilder Scott Cosper, Harker Heights optometrist Austin Ruiz and Army veteran Larry Smith. Cosper (42%) and Ruiz (37%) advanced to a runoff.
Killeen represents almost half of the district’s registered voters, but it comprised just 23% of votes cast in the primary. Cosper received 46% of the vote in Killeen precincts, and Ruiz received 37% there. Turnout in Killeen precincts was just 7%.
Turnout was considerably higher in Harker Heights’ precincts, where 16% of registered voters cast ballots in the Republican primary. Ruiz received 50.1% of the vote in Harker Heights, and Cosper received 36%. If the district were comprised solely of their two home towns’ precincts, then Ruiz would have finished 87 votes ahead of Cosper.
Elsewhere in Bell Co., Cosper received 44% of the vote and Ruiz received 36%. Ruiz finished third in Lampasas Co. with 28% of the vote. Cosper carried the county with 39% of the vote, and Tea Party candidate Smith received 32% there.
Cosper was elected mayor in 2014 after receiving a 43% plurality vote, which was enough to win the race by 95 votes over former council member Dick Young (40%). A third candidate received 17% of the vote. Cosper’s term ends in May. He had served nine years as a council member but was not a member of the council when he was elected mayor.
Cosper was one of five council members recalled in 2011 over the severance package paid to a former city manager. As the Mayor Pro Tem, he received 24% of the vote, lowest of the five council members subject to the recall. Following the recall, the city council lacked a quorum and was unable to conduct business for six months.
This appears to be Ruiz’s first run for public office. Smith previously lost a race for Congress in another part of the state.
Entering the primary, Cosper had a nearly 3-to-1 advantage in contributions from district zip codes, where he has 131 donors contributing less than $1,000. Ruiz has 95 such donors. More than 70% of Cosper’s contributions have come from district zip codes, while Ruiz has received 25% of his contributions from the district.
Scott Cosper
Campaign Finance Summary
$66,133 – Cash on Hand
$32,331 – Contributions (1/22-2/20)
$36,347 – Expenditures (1/22-2/20)
$105,256 – Total Contributions (2015-16)
$95,508 – Total Expenditures (2015-16)
$30,000 – Loan Principal
Geographic Sources of Contributions
$52,895 – Killeen (50%)
$23,050 – Austin (22%)
$13,920 – Harker Heights (13%)
$5,200 – Temple (5%)
$4,300 – Belton (4%)
$6,742 – Rest of Texas (6%)
$0 – Outside Texas (0%)
District Zip Codes
$75,557 – District Zip Codes (71%)
$511 – Average Contribution
131 donors in district zip codes giving $1K or less
$30,550 – Outside District (29%)
Top Contributors
$10,000 – Diane Connell, Texas Medical Assoc. TEXPAC
$5,000 – Kathy Gilmore, Prosperity Central Texas, Texas Parent PAC
$2,500 – Bobby Bates, Eula Beck, Coy Charping, Mike Kriegal, Drayton McLane, Drayton McLane Jr., Robert Mitchell, John Rieder, Rodney Shine, Kenny Walls
$2,000 – Texas Hospital Assoc. HOSPAC, Michael & Dunyasha Withers
Austin Ruiz
Campaign Finance Summary
$35,762 – Cash on Hand
$47,120 – Contributions (1/22-2/20)
$31,904 – Expenditures (1/22-2/20)
$117,588 – Total Contributions (2015-16)
$82,833 – Total Expenditures (2015-16)
$0 – Loan Principal
Geographic Sources of Contributions
$33,700 – Austin (29%)
$13,905 – Harker Heights (12%)
$10,797 – Killeen (12%)
$5,265 – San Antonio (4%)
$3,261 – Salado (3%)
$50,160 – Rest of Texas (43%)
$500 – Outside Texas (<1%)
District Zip Codes
$29,763 – District Zip Codes (25%)
$295 – Average Contribution
95 donors in district zip codes giving $1K or less
$87,825 – Outside District (75%)
Top Contributors
$8,333 – Texas Optometric PAC
$2,500 – Thomas Allen Lucas Jr., Gary Thomas
$2,020 – Monica Allison, Davy or Ashley David, Fred Farias, Kevin Gee, Mario & Elsa Gutierrez, Henry & Linda Hull, David Way
$2,000 – Gerald Martin Ellis
We could not put our fingers on a complete endorsement list for either candidate. Several current and former mayors in and around the district have endorsed Cosper including Salado Mayor Skip Blancett, Temple Mayor Danny Dunn, Belton Mayor Marion Grayson and Harker Heights Mayor Rob Robinson. Ruiz has also received some local endorsements, including Lampasas Mayor Christian Toups and Lampasas Co. Comm. Jim Lindeman. Several Austin-based associations and PACs have endorsed Cosper.
Movement conservative groups have thus far not endorsed for the runoff, and they may not. Smith was clearly their candidate in the primary, having secured endorsements from Texans for Fiscal Responsibility/Empower Texans, the Texas Home School Coalition and Young Conservatives of Texas. Cosper and Ruiz expressed support for Speaker Joe Straus at candidate forums leading up to the primary, and Ruiz has given several small donations to Democratic office-holders in the past. These may be disqualifying conditions for movement conservative group support. That said, Cosper’s endorsements appear to hew closely to an “establishment” candidate model, so the door is at least ajar for Ruiz to run as a conservative outsider.
The district has proven to be tolerant of “establishment” candidates, particularly in presidential election years.
In the 2014 Republican runoff, HD54 voters chose Dan Patrick over incumbent Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 69%-31%. In the 2012 runoff, the Bell Co. portion of HD54 preferred Dewhurst over Ted Cruz by 17 votes, but Lampasas Co. voters tipped the district to Cruz, 50.6%-49.4%. About 5,500 people voted in the 2012 runoff, while less than half that voted in the 2014 runoff.
No local runoffs are expected to impact this race, although the SD24 runoff between Dawn Buckingham and Rep. Susan King (R-Abilene) could spur additional turnout across HD54.
Both candidates are likely to receive fewer votes in the runoff. Holding on to the voters who have already indicated their support is always key in a runoff. Cosper did not win a majority in his home town in the primary (or, for that matter, in his mayoral election), and Ruiz barely won a majority in his. Improving at home would go a long way toward securing a runoff win for either candidate.
